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India’s goods trade deficit with China reached $105.93 billion in the first nine months of 2026. China shipped $125.19 billion of goods to India, while Indian exports to China totaled $19.26 billion, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs reported by PTI and The Financial Express. Bilateral goods trade reached $144.45 billion.
What the nine-month figures show
The deficit is the value of imports from China minus India’s exports to China. The January–September 2026 figures are:
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| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| India’s exports to China | $19.26 billion |
| India’s imports from China | $125.19 billion |
| Total bilateral goods trade | $144.45 billion |
| India’s trade deficit | $105.93 billion |
The nine-month deficit was 20.7% higher than in the same period a year earlier. Crossing $100 billion before the year ended does not mean India had a $100 billion deficit in every nine-month period; it reflects the cumulative balance for January through September 2026.
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Indian exports to China increased 40.7% year over year. Chinese exports to India also grew, by 23.3%. The apparently favorable percentage comparison is misleading because the two growth rates apply to very different starting values.
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| Side of trade | January–September 2026 value | Year-over-year change | What the base means |
|---|---|---|---|
| India’s exports to China | $19.26 billion | +40.7% | Growth from a much smaller base |
| China’s exports to India | $125.19 billion | +23.3% | Growth from a far larger base |
A 40.7% increase on roughly $13.7 billion would add about $5.6 billion. A 23.3% increase on roughly $101.6 billion would add about $23.7 billion. Those back-of-the-envelope base effects illustrate why faster percentage growth in Indian exports still leaves a much larger absolute import bill. The customs totals, rather than the percentages alone, determine the deficit.
What India sells to China and what it buys
India’s main exports
The Embassy of India in Beijing, citing Ministry of Commerce data, identifies India’s principal recent exports to China as:
Rank #2
- Iron ore
- Light naphtha
- Para-xylene (p-xylene)
- Shrimps
- Castor oil
These products can generate substantial shipment value, but the list is weighted toward commodities and resource-linked chemicals rather than a broad range of finished manufactured goods.
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China’s main shipments to India
Chinese supplies to India are concentrated in machinery, electronics, personal computers, monolithic integrated circuits, telecom-equipment parts, lithium-ion products and fertilisers. These categories include capital equipment and components used by Indian manufacturers, telecommunications companies, electronics assemblers, energy businesses and other downstream industries.
Rank #3
| India’s exports to China | China’s exports to India |
|---|---|
| Iron ore | Machinery |
| Light naphtha | Electronics and personal computers |
| p-Xylene | Monolithic integrated circuits |
| Shrimps | Telecom-equipment parts |
| Castor oil | Lithium-ion products and fertilisers |
This product mix helps explain the persistent imbalance. India is expanding sales of commodities and selected intermediate products, while importing technology-intensive goods and production inputs that are difficult to replace quickly.
How the 2026 result fits the fiscal-year picture
The nine-month calendar-year result follows a very large deficit in the completed Indian financial year. The Embassy’s official table records FY2025–26 exports from India to China at $19.47 billion, imports at $131.63 billion and a deficit of $112.16 billion. The Financial Express, citing PTI and Commerce Ministry data, reports the comparable full-year deficit as $112.6 billion, up from $99.2 billion in FY2024–25.
Rank #4
| Indian financial year | Exports to China | Imports from China | Reported deficit |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024–25 | Not stated in the cited figures | Not stated in the cited figures | $99.2 billion |
| FY2025–26, Embassy table | $19.47 billion | $131.63 billion | $112.16 billion |
| FY2025–26, Financial Express/PTI report | Not stated separately | Not stated separately | $112.6 billion |
The $112.16 billion and $112.6 billion totals differ slightly because the sources use different reporting or rounding conventions. Both show the same direction: the annual gap was about $112 billion and higher than the previous year.
Why dependence is difficult to reduce quickly
Replacing Chinese imports is not simply a matter of finding another supplier. Machinery, chips, telecom parts and battery products are embedded in Indian production lines and finished products. A sudden restriction could raise costs, delay deliveries or reduce output unless alternative capacity already exists.
Where substitution is most feasible
- Supplier diversification: qualify producers in multiple countries for components and equipment instead of relying on one source.
- Domestic manufacturing: expand Indian capacity for electronics assembly, components, industrial machinery, chemicals and battery inputs.
- Technology and skills: support semiconductor design, precision engineering, testing and industrial research so local firms can move into higher-value stages.
- Standards and procurement: use transparent technical standards and public procurement rules that reward reliability, cybersecurity and lifecycle cost without creating arbitrary shortages.
- Trade negotiations: seek better access for Indian pharmaceuticals, processed foods, chemicals and manufactured products where Indian suppliers can meet Chinese demand.
What to measure beyond the headline deficit
Policy decisions should track five separate indicators: absolute import and export values, year-over-year growth rates, the value added in each product category, access to each market and the degree of supply-chain dependence. A rising export percentage is useful, but it does not by itself show that the structural gap is narrowing.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What would count as genuine improvement
A smaller deficit would be one sign, but not the only one. Durable progress would also mean a broader Indian export basket, more domestic production of critical inputs, multiple qualified overseas suppliers and fewer disruptions when one source changes prices or availability. If Indian exports grow mainly through a few commodities while imports continue to rise in high-value technology and capital goods, the percentage growth headline will continue to overstate the improvement.
The Bottom Line
India’s China goods deficit reached $105.93 billion in January–September 2026 because imports of $125.19 billion still exceeded exports of $19.26 billion by a wide margin. The 40.7% export surge is significant, but it started from a much smaller base and has not yet offset India’s dependence on Chinese machinery, electronics and components.
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