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Hurricane Simon shifted slightly on Sunday, October 11, 2026, and the forecast then favored a close pass off Mexico’s west coast rather than a direct short-term landfall. That did not make the coast safe: the storm’s eastern inner core and cloud bands could still bring hurricane conditions, severe coastal wind, heavy rain and dangerous waves. These details describe the forecast available at the time; tropical-cyclone tracks and hazards can change quickly.
What changed in Hurricane Simon’s course?
On Sunday, October 11, hurricane-hunter aircraft data indicated that Simon was moving more slowly than previously expected. The forecast shifted from an anticipated landfall to a close offshore track, reaching about 15 kilometers (nine miles) from Jalisco’s coast, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP) on October 12. That was a forecast, not confirmation of the storm’s eventual path.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) had described Simon as a Category 4 hurricane at 9 a.m. CST on October 11. By Sunday, AFP reported that it had been downgraded to Category 3. In the latest NHC figures cited by AFP, sustained winds were 200 kilometers per hour (125 mph), while Simon was moving at 7 kph.
In its October 11 evening Discussion Number 19, the NHC set Simon’s initial intensity at 105 kt and reported signs of weakening. It attributed the weakening likely to the storm’s prolonged close proximity to the coastline and nearby mountainous terrain. NHC Discussion Number 19
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Why might an offshore storm still threaten Puerto Vallarta?
A storm does not need to cross the coastline to bring dangerous conditions ashore. AFP reported that Simon’s eastern inner core could still produce hurricane conditions, while its cloud bands could affect coastal communities. The NHC’s forecast, as rendered by AFP, said Simon appeared to be feeling the effects of the nearby high terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains as its inner core brushed against the Mexican coast.
Wind and hurricane conditions
Fabian Vazquez, director of Mexico’s meteorological service, warned of very severe wind effects along the coast. The reported wind figure describes Simon’s sustained winds at the time, not a guaranteed wind speed at every coastal location.
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Rain and prolonged exposure
Boris Comi, a meteorologist with Jalisco’s civil protection agency, said Simon had remained “nearly stationary” off the coast. He warned that this could “generate more rain over a longer period,” increasing the risk to people. A slow-moving storm can keep rain affecting an area for longer, even as its center remains offshore.
Waves and coastal impacts
Vazquez warned of waves up to nine meters (30 feet). That was a reported warning about wave height, not a measurement of conditions at every beach or shoreline. Wind, rainfall and waves are distinct hazards; an offshore track does not remove any of them.
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What response was reported in Jalisco?
AFP reported that the Mexican Navy evacuated about 100 people by boat from threatened coastal communities to Puerto Vallarta on Saturday, October 10. The city had set up five shelters, and 95 people had already taken shelter there by Saturday, according to the report. AFP also described businesses boarding up and troops guarding the waterfront promenade. These are figures and conditions reported for that date, not a live count.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where to check for current warnings
The track, category, wind measurements and forecasts above are historical snapshots from October 11–12, 2026, not current storm guidance. For an active or newly updated advisory, check the National Hurricane Center and Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Follow local civil-protection instructions for evacuation, shelter and coastal restrictions.
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