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Track prediction-market performance in three separate ledgers: settled win rate, realized net profit and loss (P&L), and forecast quality. Win rate counts how often settled positions win; it does not account for entry price, position size, fees, or the size of losses. Realized net P&L follows cash in and out, including fees. Forecast quality scores the probabilities you recorded before resolution. Reporting all three prevents a high hit rate from being mistaken for profitable trading.
For every headline number, state the counting unit, sample size, date range, currency, fee treatment, and whether open positions are excluded or valued separately.
The three measures answer different questions
| Measure | Question answered | Core calculation | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|---|
| Settled win rate | How often did the selected counting units finish as wins? | Winning settled units ÷ all settled units | How much money was risked or won |
| Realized net P&L | How many dollars were actually gained or lost? | Realized proceeds and payouts − acquisition costs − fees and other costs | How accurate your probability forecasts were |
| Forecast quality | How close were your recorded probabilities to eventual outcomes? | For example, Brier score: average of (forecast probability − outcome)² | Whether the trades using those forecasts made money |
A position can win and still lose money if it was purchased at a very high price and costs consumed the small remaining edge. Conversely, a position that loses more often can be profitable when occasional wins are bought cheaply and are large enough to offset losses. Forecast accuracy is a third dimension: a well-calibrated probability estimate can be traded badly, and a profitable record can result from prices, sizing, or luck rather than superior forecasts.
Set the counting rules before calculating a win rate
“Win rate” is not a single universal statistic. Decide what one observation is and document it beside the number.
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Choose the unit
- Contract rate: count each contract as one observation. A 1,000-contract order has 1,000 times the influence of a one-contract order.
- Position rate: count one entry and its eventual resolution as one observation, regardless of size.
- Trade rate: count each buy or sell execution. This can produce several observations for one position and is usually unsuitable for a simple settled-outcome rate.
Do not present a contract-level rate as though every trade had equal economic weight. Include the unit in the label, such as “positions won: 42 of 80 (52.5%)” or “contracts won: 3,100 of 5,000 (62%).”
Define what counts as settled
Include only units with a final, published resolution. Keep open positions out of settled win rate. State how you handle partial exits, pushes, voids, canceled markets, and contracts that are split across multiple fills. A consistent policy might count a partially sold position as closed only after every remaining contract settles, while recording the early sale in the P&L ledger.
Use a transparent formula
Settled win rate = number of settled winning units ÷ number of all settled units
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Calculate realized net P&L from cash flows
For a binary contract that pays $1 when the specified outcome occurs and $0 otherwise, gross settlement economics depend on both price and size. The Federal Reserve’s discussion of binary event contracts uses this $1-or-$0 structure.
Record every cash flow
Use this formula for a closed position:
Realized net P&L = sale proceeds + settlement payouts − purchase costs − fees − other transaction costs
Purchase costs include every acquisition, not just the first fill. Sale proceeds include early exits. Settlement payouts apply to contracts still held when the market resolves. Record fees at the transaction or settlement that generated them so a later correction can be traced.
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Worked settlement example
| Item | Calculation | Cash flow |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase | 100 contracts × $0.62 | −$62.00 |
| Settlement on a winning outcome | 100 × $1.00 | +$100.00 |
| Fees | Recorded transaction and settlement fees | −$1.50 |
| Realized net P&L | $100 − $62 − $1.50 | +$36.50 |
If the same 100 contracts settle at $0, the result is −$63.50 after the $1.50 fee. Both cases have the same position size; the price paid and the fee determine the dollar outcome. A win indicator alone cannot represent that difference.
Account for early exits
Suppose 100 contracts bought at $0.40 are sold at $0.55 before resolution. The gross gain is $15. Subtract the purchase-side and sale-side fees to obtain realized net P&L. Because the position no longer exists at settlement, do not also count a later market outcome as another win or loss for that closed quantity.
Keep open positions separate
An unsettled contract has no final settlement result. Exclude it from settled win rate and realized P&L until it is sold or resolved. Maintain a separate open-position view containing quantity, entry cost, current quoted value and the timestamp of that quote.
If you show mark-to-market P&L
Label it explicitly as unrealized or mark-to-market. State the valuation method (for example, bid, ask, midpoint or last trade), the timestamp, and whether estimated exit fees are deducted. Mark-to-market values can change without a trade and should never be silently combined with realized results.
Reconcile the account
At each reporting date, reconcile starting cash, deposits and withdrawals, purchase outflows, sale proceeds, settlement payouts, fees and ending cash. The reconciliation catches missing fills and prevents an open position’s estimated value from being mistaken for cash profit.
Report returns only with a named denominator
A dollar P&L is not a percentage return. If you publish a return, name its denominator and treatment of capital tied up before settlement.
| Possible denominator | What to disclose |
|---|---|
| Capital committed | Whether this means gross purchase cost, net cash invested, or another definition |
| Total cost of closed positions | How partial exits and multiple fills are aggregated |
| Average capital at risk | The averaging period and whether open positions are included |
Also state the currency, reporting period and whether fees and other transaction costs are included. A raw gain of $500 should remain labeled “net P&L: $500,” not “500% return,” unless the denominator actually supports that percentage.
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Track forecast quality independently from trades
Save the probability you believed at a stated time, rather than reconstructing it from the eventual trade price. For each forecast, retain:
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- the exact outcome wording and market identifier;
- your probability estimate, such as 0.70 for “yes”;
- the timestamp and forecast horizon;
- the eventual binary outcome, coded 1 for the specified event and 0 otherwise;
- any revision history if your estimate changed.
Brier score
For binary outcomes, the Brier score is the mean squared error:
Brier score = average of (p − o)²
Here, p is the recorded probability and o is 1 or 0 after resolution. Lower scores indicate smaller squared probability errors. Compare scores only when outcome definitions, forecast horizons and sampling rules match. A probability forecast of 0.90 for an event that fails contributes 0.81, while a forecast of 0.55 for the same failed event contributes 0.3025; the score reflects confidence as well as correctness.
Do not substitute accuracy for calibration
Naive accuracy counts whether the more-likely side was correct. It discards the difference between a 51% and a 95% forecast. Brier scoring preserves that information, but it still does not include entry price, size or fees. Keep forecast scores and trading P&L in separate columns and analyze their relationship afterward.
Build a ledger that can be recomputed
Use one row per fill or other cash-flow event, plus a linked position summary. Preserve the original export or statement; do not overwrite a corrected value.
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Minimum transaction fields
- venue and contract or market identifier;
- verbatim outcome wording and settlement rule;
- side, entry or exit timestamp, price and quantity;
- each subsequent purchase or sale;
- fee type and amount, in the transaction currency;
- settlement date, resolved outcome and payout;
- open or closed status and realized net P&L.
Separate forecast fields
- probability estimate and whether it refers to the “yes” or “no” outcome;
- timestamp at which the estimate was made;
- intended horizon, such as three months or resolution;
- eventual outcome and Brier contribution.
Store timestamps with a time zone. Use stable identifiers so a market-name edit does not create a duplicate. Keep a note for corrections to fees, voids or classifications; then regenerate summaries from the ledger instead of manually editing percentages.
A practical reporting workflow
- Freeze the scope. Choose the venue, categories, observation dates, currency and whether the report covers only settled positions.
- Import source records. Combine fills, settlements, fees, deposits and withdrawals while retaining the original files.
- Normalize markets. Link every fill to one contract identifier and preserve the exact outcome wording and settlement rule.
- Close positions. Match sales and settlement payouts to quantities acquired. Mark remaining quantities as open.
- Apply the win rule. Count settled units according to the declared contract, position or trade policy, including your treatment of partial exits and voids.
- Compute net P&L. Sum realized proceeds and payouts, subtract all acquisition costs and fees, and keep open quantities out of this total.
- Value open risk separately. If needed, calculate mark-to-market using a named quote and timestamp, with estimated exit costs identified.
- Score forecasts. Join each timestamped probability to its final outcome and calculate Brier contributions and the aggregate score.
- Publish the denominator and sample. Show counts, dates, category mix, fee treatment and any exclusions beside every metric.
- Reconcile. Check that the cash-flow ledger agrees with account activity and that position quantities net to zero for closed markets.
Compare two records on an equal basis
A comparison is meaningful only when the underlying definitions align. Use this checklist before ranking a strategy, period or trader.
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| Comparison axis | Alignment required |
|---|---|
| Venue and rules | Same settlement conventions, contract payout and fee schedule, or clearly adjusted differences |
| Market mix | Comparable categories, event difficulty and time to resolution |
| Observation window | Same date range or an explicit explanation for different periods |
| Sample size | Number of settled positions or contracts, not percentages alone |
| Counting unit | Trades, positions or contracts stated consistently |
| Entry and exit treatment | Early sales, partial fills and settlement holdings handled the same way |
| Costs | Fees and other transaction costs included on both sides |
| Open positions | Excluded from both realized figures or valued with the same method and timestamp |
| Forecast data | Same probability definition, timestamp convention and horizon |
Report win rate, net P&L and forecast score side by side. A single composite score hides the reason records differ and encourages invalid comparisons.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What large platform statistics do—and do not—show
Kalshi Research’s August 2026 study examined 2,243,741 resolved markets across eleven categories, from the platform’s launch in 2021 through mid-2026. It is evidence about that platform’s market forecasts, not a universal estimate of individual trader profitability or of every prediction venue.
| Reported result | Scope and interpretation |
|---|---|
| Brier score approximately 0.08–0.09 at a three-month horizon | Kalshi Research, 2026; all-market comparison excludes Exotics. This is forecast error, not profit. |
| Brier score roughly 0.02 at close | Kalshi Research, 2026; accuracy improves as resolution approaches, so it is not comparable with a three-month score without matching the horizon. |
| Naive accuracy 88.3% at three months and 97.2% at close | Platform market-forecast figures, not a retail trader’s win rate or return. |
| Calibration varies with event-level volume, unique trader count, category and time to resolution | Reported associations in that dataset; they do not prove that more participation causes better forecasts for every market or trader. |
The study demonstrates why a hit rate depends on when it is sampled and what is being counted. It cannot tell you whether your own positions were profitable without your prices, sizes and fees.
Common reporting failures and their fixes
Calling every resolved “yes” a profitable win
Problem: The contract paid, but the entry price, exit history or fees are ignored.
Fix: Use the cash-flow formula and report the resulting net P&L separately.
Mixing open and settled positions
Problem: A current quote is treated as a final result.
Fix: Keep open quantities outside settled win rate and realized P&L; label any mark-to-market estimate with its valuation method and timestamp.
Using a contract count to imply equal risk
Problem: A large position and a small position receive the same influence under a position rate, or thousands of contracts dominate a contract rate.
Fix: Publish the unit and add net P&L and capital information.
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Problem: A dollar gain is presented as a percentage without saying what capital base was used.
Fix: Name the denominator, averaging period and open-capital treatment.
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Scoring probabilities after seeing the outcome
Problem: The estimate is backfilled, so the score is not a genuine pre-resolution forecast.
Fix: Save the probability and timestamp when the forecast is made and preserve revisions.
Comparing unlike horizons
Problem: A near-close accuracy figure is compared with a three-month forecast score.
Fix: Match the horizon and outcome definition before comparing.
Use uncertainty and risk language carefully
Always show the number of settled observations and the date range. A small record or a changing mix of categories can make a headline percentage unstable. Historical results are descriptive; they do not establish that the same win rate, P&L or forecast score will continue.
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A publication-ready performance table
A compact report can use the following columns without collapsing distinct concepts:
| Period | Settled units | Wins | Win rate | Realized net P&L | Open exposure | Brier score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State dates and time zone | State contracts, positions or trades | Use the same unit as settled units | Wins ÷ settled units | Currency and after-fee total | Quantity and stated valuation, if any | Forecast horizon and outcome definition | Categories, exclusions, voids and corrections |
Publish the underlying definitions next to the table rather than relying on a glossary elsewhere. Readers should be able to reproduce every figure from the ledger and understand which results are final, estimated or forecast-based.
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