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A prediction-market trade can create insider-trading risk when you use or tip material, nonpublic information obtained through a duty of trust or confidence—such as an employment, nondisclosure, government, league, team or other formal relationship. Under the CFTC’s stated view, liability also requires scienter, meaning the required level of knowledge or intent. An informational advantage by itself is not automatically illegal.
This is a U.S.-focused risk guide, not a legal determination. A contract’s rulebook and the venue’s policies can prohibit conduct even when proving a statutory violation would be uncertain. If you have traded on confidential information or can influence the outcome, consult a lawyer familiar with commodities and white-collar law before taking further action.
Scope: what this guide can and cannot decide
The analysis here concerns U.S. prediction markets and event contracts, especially contracts on venues subject to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). CFTC Enforcement Director David I. Miller has said that Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) Section 6(c)(1) and Regulation 180.1 can reach misappropriation of material nonpublic information (MNPI) in commodity, futures and swap markets, including event contracts the CFTC regards as swaps. His explanation is available in his NYU Law School remarks: CFTC remarks.
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The sources reviewed for this article were current on October 13, 2026. They do not establish a market-wide prevalence rate for insider trading in prediction markets.
Start with how you obtained the information
Public information and independent analysis
News reports, public filings, published schedules, open government data and other information equally available to the market are not confidential merely because you noticed their significance first. A forecast, statistical model or trading strategy built from public data is generally different from taking someone else’s confidential information. Miller stated that a trader is “absolutely entitled to trade on MNPI that you rightfully own,” while also warning that the contract and applicable duties still control the result. Read the full explanation in the CFTC remarks.
Confidential information about the event
Risk rises when the information is both material and nonpublic. Material means a reasonable trader would consider it important to the contract’s outcome or price; nonpublic means the market does not have legitimate, broad access to it. Examples can include an unreleased business decision, a team’s private injury report, an unpublished government action, an internal election or campaign fact, or an embargoed announcement. The exact contract and timing determine whether a fact is material.
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A duty to the information’s source
The central question is not simply whether you had an edge, but whether you obtained or used the edge in breach of a duty of trust or confidence owed to its source. A duty can arise from an employment relationship, confidentiality or nondisclosure agreement, professional obligation, government position, league or team role, or another formal relationship that limits use of information. A person who receives information from an employee or official can also face risk if the circumstances make the breach apparent.
Government workers require particular care. Miller discussed restrictions on using nonpublic government information, so an employee should not assume that information learned through public service is available for personal trading. The same caution applies to contractors, advisers and temporary staff whose access is controlled by an agreement or agency rule.
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Information you generated or rightfully control
Owning a model, dataset or analytical method can support a legitimate trading thesis, but ownership of the method does not make every input lawful to use. If a model incorporates a confidential file supplied in breach of a duty, the origin of that input remains relevant. Keep records showing which data were public, when they were obtained and how the analysis was produced.
The CFTC’s misappropriation framework
Miller summarized the CFTC’s stated view in three elements: “Under the misappropriation theory, liability attaches when an individual: (1) possesses material non-public information; (2) misappropriates that information by trading on or tipping in breach of a duty of trust and confidence owed to the source of the information; and (3) does so with scienter.” The quotation appears in the CFTC remarks.
- Possession of MNPI: Identify the specific fact, when you learned it, why it was material and whether it was genuinely nonpublic.
- Breach through trading or tipping: Determine whether using the fact, or passing it to another trader, violated a duty owed to the source.
- Scienter: Consider what you knew about the information’s confidentiality and the duty, and whether you acted with the required intent or recklessness. A mistake about a public fact is not automatically scienter, but ignorance is not a guaranteed defense.
This is the CFTC’s enforcement position, not a judicial finding that every fact pattern satisfies the elements. A lawyer must apply the governing law to the particular contract, jurisdiction and evidence.
A practical pre-trade screening checklist
Use these questions before placing a trade or evaluating someone else’s trade. They flag issues for legal review; they are not a conclusive liability test.
- Describe the information precisely.
Write down the fact you would rely on, the contract outcome it affects, when you learned it and when the market could reasonably learn it. Vague impressions are harder to assess than a dated document, message or statement.
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- Classify the source.
Is the fact public, independently generated analysis, or confidential information about the underlying event? A rumor in a private chat is not automatically public, and a public headline may still omit a material confidential detail.
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Ask who supplied or entrusted the information and whether you owed that person or organization a duty of trust or confidence. Check employment terms, nondisclosure agreements, ethics rules, agency policies, league or team credentials and professional codes.
- Check your conduct.
Did you trade after receiving the information, change an existing order, cancel an order, or tip someone else? Tipping can create separate exposure when the recipient knows or should know that the information was obtained through a duty breach.
- Assess knowledge and intent.
What did you understand about the information’s confidentiality and the source’s expectations? Preserve contemporaneous messages and notes that show your understanding rather than reconstructing a rationale after the trade.
- Ask whether you can affect the outcome.
Can you directly or indirectly influence the event, settlement fact or reporting process? Even without MNPI, the venue may bar people who can affect the result. Include influence through an employer, team, campaign, channel, official role or a person acting at your direction.
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- Read the contract and platform rules.
Review eligibility, prohibited conduct, settlement, reporting, conflicts, information-use and enforcement provisions for that exact market. Do not rely on a general help page when the individual contract has additional terms.
Influencing the event is a separate warning sign
Insider-trading analysis and outcome manipulation are related but distinct. A person can be prohibited from trading because they can influence an outcome, even if proving use of confidential information would be difficult. The CFTC’s February 25, 2026 advisory described one candidate trading a contract concerning his own candidacy and one channel editor trading contracts related to the channel while likely possessing advance knowledge. The advisory is at CFTC advisory.
Current policies for Kalshi and Polymarket also address trading by people who can influence the relevant event. Treat those policies as contractual venue rules, not as a universal statutory definition. Influence can be direct, such as making a decision that determines the event, or indirect, such as controlling access, publication, scheduling or information flow.
Platform rules can be stricter than the legal minimum
A venue may suspend or penalize an account under its rulebook without first proving every element of a CEA claim. Read the policy for the particular market and date of trading.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Venue and oversight | The CFTC’s customer guidance explains prediction-market oversight and the obligations of regulated designated contract markets (DCMs): CFTC customer guidance. | The February 2026 CFTC cases described in the advisory involved Kalshi contracts. Check the current market rule and policy before trading. | The cited material establishes a published market-integrity policy; it does not establish every aspect of the venue’s regulatory status for all jurisdictions. |
| Confidential information | For the CFTC’s misappropriation theory, focus on MNPI, a breached duty to the source and scienter. | The current insider-trading policy addresses prohibited use of confidential information and conflicts; its exact wording and scope can change. | The policy states: “You may not trade on any contract if you possess confidential information about the outcome of the underlying event, where using that information would violate a preexisting duty of trust or confidence you owe to another person or entity.” See Polymarket’s policy. |
| Ability to influence an outcome | Regulated DCMs must enforce trading rules, and the CFTC advisory highlights conflicts involving people who can affect an event. | The policy prohibits trading in relevant markets when a trader can influence the outcome; identify whether your role gives you that ability. | The policy also addresses trading while able to influence the underlying event; apply the market-specific language. |
| Surveillance and records | The CFTC says DCMs must surveil markets, maintain audit trails and enforce rules. Those records can include orders, account activity and communications required by the venue. | Any surveillance description is the platform’s policy statement, not an independent measurement of detection accuracy. | Any surveillance description is likewise a platform policy statement, not proof that every unusual trade will be detected or that a flagged trade is unlawful. |
| Possible consequences | Enforcement can involve CFTC action, exchange discipline, disgorgement, monetary penalties, suspension or referral, depending on the facts. | Account-level sanctions can be imposed under the current rulebook; the 2026 advisory gives two case-specific examples. | Consult the current policy for available restrictions, investigations and referrals; the cited materials do not establish a universal sanction schedule. |
Because policies change, save the version in force when you traded and the contract’s settlement rules. A platform investigation and a government enforcement action are separate processes.
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What the two 2026 CFTC cases show
Candidate trading on a contract about the candidacy
The February 25, 2026 advisory describes a candidate who traded a contract concerning his own candidacy. The CFTC Division of Enforcement imposed a five-year suspension and a $2,246.36 financial penalty, consisting of $246.36 in disgorgement and a $2,000 penalty. The result reflects that particular conduct and evidence; it is not a general penalty schedule.
Channel editor trading contracts tied to the channel
The same advisory describes a YouTube-channel editor trading contracts related to the channel while likely having advance knowledge. The stated outcome was a two-year suspension and a $20,397.58 financial penalty, consisting of $5,397.58 in disgorgement and a $15,000 penalty. Again, the amount cannot be used to predict the result in another case.
These examples illustrate why access, duty, use, influence and timing matter together. They do not show that an unusual trade, a profitable trade or a particular job title alone proves misconduct.
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Why unusual success is not proof
Surveillance may flag trades placed shortly before a settlement change, concentrated positions or unusually accurate predictions. Those patterns can justify questions, but they are not the legal elements by themselves. Investigators would still need evidence about what information the trader had, how it was obtained, what duty applied, whether the trader used or tipped it, and what the trader knew.
Conversely, a losing trade is not automatically safe. Attempted use, a tip, an influence conflict or a rule violation may matter even when the position lost money. Keep the analysis focused on information, duty, conduct and the specific contract rule.
If you already made the trade
- Do not trade further on the same information. Avoid increasing, reversing or disguising the position while you assess the issue.
- Do not tip anyone. Stop forwarding messages, summaries or trading suggestions based on the information.
- Preserve records. Keep order confirmations, timestamps, messages, emails, files, employment terms, nondisclosure agreements and notes showing when and how you received the information. Do not delete, alter or backdate anything.
- Save the applicable rules. Download or otherwise preserve the contract specifications, platform policy and account notices in effect on the trade date.
- Separate facts from assumptions. Prepare a chronology identifying the source, access, communications, orders and any ability to influence the event. Avoid speculative explanations.
- Get independent legal advice promptly. A qualified U.S. commodities or white-collar lawyer can assess CEA exposure, employment or government duties, platform procedures and whether communications with the venue should be made through counsel.
- Respond carefully to inquiries. Do not mislead a platform, employer or regulator, but do not guess about legal conclusions. Ask counsel how to handle a request for documents or an interview.
Common mistakes to avoid
- “The information was only a tip from a friend.” A personal relationship does not erase a duty owed by the source or the recipient’s knowledge of a breach.
- “I did not make money.” Profit is not the sole measure of prohibited conduct; attempted use, tipping and rule violations can still matter.
- “Everyone in the chat knew.” A small private group is not the same as legitimate public dissemination.
- “I created the model, so every input is mine.” A model may combine lawful public data with a confidential input obtained through a duty.
- “The market rule is only a suggestion.” Exchange or platform discipline can apply independently of a government case.
- “A suspicious pattern proves insider trading.” Timing and success can prompt review, but proof requires facts about access, duty, use, knowledge and the governing rule.
Bottom line for a U.S. trader
Ask first where the information came from, then whether a duty protected it, whether you traded or tipped with the required knowledge, and whether your role could influence the event. Check the exact contract and platform policy because those rules may be broader than the minimum legal theory. If any answer involves workplace, government, team, campaign, channel or confidential-agreement information, pause and obtain advice from qualified counsel before taking further action. The CFTC’s consumer guidance is available at https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets.
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