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Read the complete, current rules for the specific market before placing a trade. Reduce them to one sentence: What exact event must happen, what evidence counts, by what cutoff, and what happens if the event is delayed, revised, ambiguous, or disputed? Then check the payout, fees, and determination timing. A market title alone does not establish what wins.
Start with the market-specific rules, not the headline
Open the market’s full rules and important-information sections. A short title or description can leave out conditions that change whether a contract wins. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says customers are entitled to transparent information about contract terms and settlement, and recommends reviewing the rules for the particular market and contract. Read the CFTC’s guide to prediction markets and event contracts.
As you read, write a plain-language settlement test. For example: “This contract pays yes only if the named agency publishes the specified figure for the stated period by the stated cutoff.” That sentence is a way to check your understanding, not a substitute for the actual terms.
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Identify exactly what qualifies as a winning outcome
Find the event definition and the outcomes that count. Check whether the contract turns on an event happening, an official announcement, a published statistic, or another defined result. Small differences in wording can matter: an event occurring is not necessarily the same as an authority announcing it, and a preliminary result may not be the same as a finalized one.
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The venue’s market-specific text governs its settlement process. Do not infer a rule from a similar market or from the everyday meaning of the title.
Check the evidence source and what happens if it changes
Find the named agency, data source, oracle, or other resolution mechanism. Then check what the rules say that source must publish and whether the terms specify a source hierarchy or fallback if the expected evidence is unavailable.
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- Does the contract name an official source or a particular data release?
- Can a corrected or revised release change the result?
- Is there a fallback source if the named source does not publish the information?
- What evidence is used if sources conflict?
Filed contract terms can include detailed source-agency and payout provisions. The CFTC maintains an index of product terms and conditions filed by designated contract markets.
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Record the relevant times independently. A market can stop trading before the event window ends, and a determination can happen after the event because the venue is waiting for finalized source data. Kalshi’s help guidance explains that a displayed close time can differ from determination time and that settlement may wait for official data from the named source. Consult the market’s current terms and Kalshi’s market FAQs for its timing explanations.
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- Event window: the period in which the qualifying event or measurement must occur.
- Last trading time: when trading in the contract closes.
- Expiration: the contract’s stated end point, which may not itself be the moment a final outcome is known.
- Determination time: when the venue determines the result under its rules.
- Settlement timing: when the resulting payout or account update is completed.
Look for exceptions and dispute procedures
Search the rules for treatment of ties, cancellations, postponements, incomplete data, corrected results, partial outcomes, voids, reviews, and disputes. These provisions are contract-specific. If the rules use a term such as “void” or “last fair value,” read its definition in that contract rather than assuming a familiar meaning.
Resolution mechanics also differ by venue. Polymarket describes resolving markets through UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer submits a result under the market’s predefined rules, and a challenge process can follow. That is distinct from simply waiting for an event to occur. See Polymarket’s explanation of market resolution and compare it with the process in the exact market you are considering.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Work out the payout and costs
Determine whether the contract is binary, has multiple outcomes, combines conditions, or allows a partial payout. Then account for the price you pay and any commissions, fees, penalties, or other costs. The CFTC notes that event contracts can use fixed payouts, while other structures can offer multiple choices or partial payouts, and advises customers to check costs.
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For illustration, the CFTC describes buying a contract for 70 cents that pays $1 if the event occurs: the 30-cent difference is profit before taxes and fees if that outcome happens. It is an arithmetic example, not a prediction of likely returns or a market statistic. The market price is not a guaranteed probability, and the potential payout alone does not describe the trade’s net outcome.
Compare contracts only after matching their terms
Two markets with similar headlines may not settle identically. Before comparing prices across venues, match the underlying terms:
| What to compare | Question to answer |
|---|---|
| Event definition | What exact event or result qualifies, and which outcomes count? |
| Evidence and resolution | Which source or mechanism decides, and what happens if information is revised or unavailable? |
| Timing | What are the event cutoff, last trading time, expiration, determination, and settlement timing? |
| Exceptions | How do ties, cancellations, delays, partial outcomes, and disputes affect the contract? |
| Payout and costs | What is the payout structure, and which fees or other costs apply? |
If any of those answers differ or are unclear, treat the contracts as different until their rules establish otherwise.
Use a final pre-trade check
- Open the current rules for the exact market, including important-information sections.
- Write the settlement test: qualifying event, evidence, cutoff, and treatment of exceptions or disputes.
- Note the event, trading, determination, and settlement times separately.
- Confirm the resolution mechanism and what happens if the source revises or fails to publish data.
- Calculate the possible payout after fees and other costs, using the contract’s actual structure.
This is general educational information, not a recommendation to trade or legal advice. Access and regulatory status depend on the specific entity, product, and jurisdiction; consult the current rules and applicable requirements for your situation.
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