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“Already compromised” describes a risk of future decryption, not proof that a quantum computer has broken your messages or that your accounts have been breached. In a harvest-now, decrypt-later attack, someone captures encrypted information today and stores it in the hope of decrypting it later. That strategy matters most for information that must stay secret for years or decades.

What does “harvest now, decrypt later” mean?

An attacker does not need a quantum computer to collect encrypted data. The strategy is to intercept or obtain encrypted communications or stored information now, retain it, and attempt decryption later if a sufficiently powerful quantum computer becomes available. It is a reason to consider the future confidentiality of sensitive data—not evidence that every encrypted account or message has been collected.

The central question is how long the information needs to remain confidential and what harm disclosure would cause. NIST identifies health records, financial data, intellectual property, and national-security information as examples where long-term secrecy can matter. NIST explains the risk to information sent or stored today.

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Can quantum computers break encryption today?

No. NIST says current quantum computers are much too small and unstable to threaten the cryptography protecting ordinary communications. There is no settled date for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer: NIST says no one knows how long development will take, or whether it will happen at all. A countdown date should not be treated as a fact.

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The main concern is widely used public-key cryptography, especially methods used to establish encryption keys and create digital signatures. A sufficiently capable quantum computer running relevant algorithms could undermine some of those protections. That does not mean every form of encryption is already broken, or that all encrypted data faces the same risk.

What is post-quantum cryptography?

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) uses algorithms designed to resist attacks from both conventional computers and future quantum computers. It is not the same as “quantum cryptography,” which NIST describes as an approach based on quantum physics. PQC is intended to replace public-key algorithms that could be vulnerable to quantum attacks.

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In August 2024, NIST finalized three standards that form the foundation for many PQC deployments. NIST’s project page lists them as:

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Standard Algorithm Purpose
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FIPS 204 ML-DSA Digital signatures
FIPS 205 SLH-DSA Digital signatures

NIST says these standards can be put into use now. Additional algorithms, including Falcon and HQC, remain in standardization; that status does not make them interchangeable with the three finalized standards.

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What can individuals do to reduce the risk?

For most people, the practical step is to keep the software and services handling their information current. Protection depends on the operating system, browser, apps, protocols, and service providers adopting appropriate cryptography—not on buying a generic privacy gadget.

  • Install operating-system, browser, and application security updates.
  • Use reputable providers that maintain their security, and ask whether and when the services you rely on expect to support post-quantum standards.
  • Give particular attention to information that would cause lasting harm if disclosed years from now; not every message has the same confidentiality lifetime.

NIST’s advice to users is straightforward: “The most effective thing you can do as a user is to ensure that your systems are updated.” Read NIST’s explanation of updates and the quantum risk.

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What should organizations do to prepare?

Organizations need a migration plan because cryptography is embedded across products, systems, suppliers, and data flows. Joint CISA, NIST, and NSA guidance recommends creating a roadmap, engaging vendors, inventorying cryptographic assets, and prioritizing sensitive and critical systems for migration. The agencies’ preparation guidance also emphasizes beginning the work before a deadline forces rushed changes.

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  1. Inventory cryptography and dependencies. Identify where public-key algorithms are used across applications, infrastructure, devices, services, and suppliers.
  2. Classify data by confidentiality lifetime and impact. Find information that must remain private for many years and systems where disclosure or disruption would have high consequences.
  3. Ask vendors for specific plans. Ask which NIST standards their products will support, how they will handle legacy systems, and what migration and interoperability evidence they can provide.
  4. Sequence and fund the migration. Prioritize sensitive data and critical systems, coordinate changes with modernization and procurement, and validate compatibility before broad deployment.

NIST’s transition plan says quantum-vulnerable algorithms will be deprecated and ultimately removed from NIST standards by 2035, with high-risk systems transitioning earlier. This is a transition schedule for NIST standards, not a promise that every product or organization will be updated by 2035. The NSA’s separate CNSA 2.0 milestones apply to National Security Systems (NSS): new commercial NSS must support the quantum-resistant algorithms by 2027, and legacy systems are to be phased out by 2030. Those dates are not deadlines for every consumer or business. NIST’s standards project and the NSA’s CNSA 2.0 overview describe these distinct scopes.

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What matters most right now?

Quantum computers are not currently breaking ordinary encryption, but data captured today could remain a target if it needs to stay confidential long into the future. Individuals should keep systems updated and look for credible provider migration plans. Organizations should start with cryptographic inventory, long-lived sensitive data, vendor engagement, and a prioritized transition to standardized PQC. As NIST mathematician Dustin Moody put it, “We encourage organizations to begin their transition to these standards immediately to ensure their data remains secure in the quantum era.” NIST’s overview of post-quantum cryptography explains the standards and the reason to begin planning.

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