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Start with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Use its Aurora – 30 Minute Forecast for the next 30–90 minutes, and use Aurora for Tonight and Tomorrow Night for a North American night-ahead view when that experimental product is available. Read the map with the Kp index, but treat neither as a guarantee for a specific town: darkness, timing, position relative to the auroral oval and local sky conditions determine whether you actually see light.
The most reliable approach is to match the forecast horizon to your decision, check the map’s timestamp and data-quality notes, then confirm that your location will be dark and have a clear view during the predicted activity.
Which aurora forecast should you use?
NOAA publishes two displays that answer different questions. The short-term OVATION product uses near-real-time solar-wind information to estimate where the aurora is likely to be during the next interval. The night-ahead product uses a forecast Kp value to create an outlook for a defined North American nighttime window. Neither product is a local cloud forecast or a promise that a particular observer will see aurora.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches| Product | Best decision | Input and horizon | Geographic scope | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora – 30 Minute Forecast | Whether to go outside soon or keep watching a developing event | Solar-wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic-field measurements near L1; typical operational lead time 30–90 minutes | North and south polar maps | If those observations are contaminated or unavailable, NOAA can drive the model with current Kp, which provides no forecast lead time |
| Aurora for Tonight and Tomorrow Night (Experimental) | Whether to plan an evening or overnight observing attempt in North America | Maximum forecast Kp between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. US Central Time | North American night-ahead outlook | The page is experimental and its availability or status can change; check the current page before relying on it |
How to read NOAA’s 30-minute forecast
The OVATION display is a model map of auroral location and intensity, not a photograph of what the sky will look like from the ground. NOAA normally uses measurements taken near the Sun–Earth L1 point, about 1.6 million kilometres upstream from Earth. Solar-wind conditions measured there take time to reach Earth, which creates the short forecast window.
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Use the page’s live details
- Open the Aurora – 30 Minute Forecast page rather than relying on a saved image.
- Read the displayed forecast time and confirm that it is current for your observing session.
- Inspect the map for the hemisphere you need. The page provides northern and southern polar views, image loops and grid data.
- Use the colour as a relative intensity cue: the usual green oval represents the modeled auroral region, while warmer colours, including red, indicate higher modeled intensity.
- Look for any data-quality or fallback notice. If the page says the solar-wind observations are unavailable or contaminated and current Kp is being used, do not interpret the image as having the normal upstream-data lead time.
The product’s stated typical lead time is 30–90 minutes, corresponding to solar-wind travel from L1 to Earth. NOAA’s tutorial describes L1-based short-term guidance more generally as about 15–45 minutes ahead. These are descriptions of different operational and tutorial contexts, not a guarantee that every update will arrive within one fixed interval.
What the oval means for an observer
The oval is drawn around the magnetic pole, not around geographic latitude lines or individual towns. A location inside the displayed oval is in a favourable modeled region, but clouds, twilight, light pollution, terrain and the exact timing of the event can still hide the aurora. A bright oval can sometimes be seen from outside its apparent boundary; the map boundary is not a hard visibility edge.
How to use the tonight-and-tomorrow-night outlook
NOAA’s experimental night-ahead product is designed for North America. It uses the SWPC three-day geomagnetic forecast, expressed through Kp, to drive OVATION for the night window. Specifically, the product uses the maximum forecast Kp from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. US Central Time.
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- Open the current Aurora for Tonight and Tomorrow Night page.
- Check whether the page currently labels the product as available and note the update time. NOAA says the images are updated continuously.
- Choose the image labelled for tonight or tomorrow night. NOAA’s display convention changes from tomorrow night to tonight at 12:00 UTC, so the label can change while your local date is still different.
- Locate your region relative to the green oval. Green is the typical display for aurora; red indicates a higher forecast intensity.
- Use the forecast Kp and oval position to decide whether to monitor the sky, then check darkness and local weather separately.
The page notes that aurora cannot be seen in daylight and does not have to be directly overhead. Under favourable conditions, a bright event may be visible from as far as 1,000 kilometres away. That distance is a conditional possibility, not a viewing guarantee for every location outside the oval.
What Kp means—and what it does not mean
Kp is a planetary, three-hour index of geomagnetic disturbance. It ranges from 0 to 9. NOAA states that 5 or higher indicates a geomagnetic storm. The planetary value is a standardized mean derived from a network of geomagnetic observatories; NOAA’s displayed estimated three-hour product is calculated from the ground magnetometer network available to it.
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“The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth’s magnetic field with an integer in the range 0-9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm.”
This wording appears on NOAA’s Planetary K-index page. Kp is an index of broad geomagnetic activity, not a town-by-town visibility score.
NOAA’s geomagnetic-storm mapping
| Kp value or range | NOAA geomagnetic-storm mapping |
|---|---|
| 0–4 | Below the storm threshold; individual values still describe the level of geomagnetic disturbance |
| 5 | G1 |
| 6 | G2 |
| 7 | G3 |
| 8 and 9− | G4 |
| 9o | G5 |
The symbols 9− and 9o distinguish the upper Kp categories used on NOAA’s page; they are not extra values beyond the 0–9 scale.
Relating Kp to likely aurora
NOAA’s aurora guidance describes a general pattern:
- Kp 7–9 tends to produce brighter aurora and an oval that expands toward lower latitudes.
- Kp 5–6 generally produces a less bright oval nearer the magnetic poles.
- Kp 3–4 can still produce enjoyable aurora near the magnetic poles.
These are approximate relationships, not thresholds that guarantee a sighting. The oval can be seen from farther equatorward than its actual boundary when the emission is bright and the sky is suitable. Conversely, a high Kp reading does not overcome daylight, clouds or an obstructed view.
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How far ahead can an aurora forecast be trusted?
Minutes ahead: upstream solar-wind observations
Measurements near L1 reveal the solar-wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field before that plasma reaches Earth. The operational OVATION page states a typical 30–90-minute lead time; NOAA’s tutorial gives a shorter general description of about 15–45 minutes. This is the most useful horizon for deciding whether to go outside soon, but the model still updates as new measurements arrive.
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Hours to several days: forecast Kp and solar features
Medium-range guidance uses observations of solar coronal holes and coronal mass ejections to estimate whether activity may affect Earth. NOAA cautions that these forecasts are less accurate because a CME’s direction, speed and magnetic-field strength are uncertain. A solar feature can rotate back toward Earth roughly 27 days later, but NOAA treats that as a recurring tendency with a margin of a day or two, not a scheduled repeat.
Why a forecast can change quickly
A forecast is recalculated when the measured solar wind changes, when a CME arrives earlier or later than expected, or when the input data quality changes. Treat a night-ahead map as a planning signal and the short-term map as a last-minute update, not as two independent promises.
How to interpret the map without overpromising yourself
Read colour and position together
Colour indicates modeled intensity, while the oval’s position indicates where the model places the auroral zone around the magnetic pole. A red area near the pole is not automatically better for a mid-latitude observer than a green or red extension toward that observer’s latitude. Look for both intensity and equatorward expansion.
Check the forecast time
An image without its valid time can be misleading. Compare the displayed timestamp with your local observing time and remember that product updates and UTC-based label changes may not match the date shown on your clock.
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Use both hemispheres correctly
The short-term product displays north and south polar regions. Choose the hemisphere where it is nighttime for your location; a strong oval in the sunlit hemisphere is not visible to an observer there.
Distinguish modeled activity from visible brightness
The model estimates auroral forcing and location. Human visibility also depends on how dark the sky is, how transparent it is, how much artificial light is present and whether the emission is high enough above the horizon to be seen. The map cannot establish those local conditions.
A practical decision procedure for “Can I see the northern lights tonight?”
- Define the observing window. Write down when your location is fully dark and when you can realistically be outside.
- Check the night-ahead outlook. For a North American plan, read the forecast Kp and oval position for the relevant night window.
- Assess your magnetic-latitude position. Locations closer to the magnetic poles can see aurora at lower Kp; locations farther away generally need a stronger, more expanded oval.
- Recheck near the session. Within roughly the next hour, use the OVATION map and its current timestamp rather than relying only on the earlier outlook.
- Confirm darkness and sky conditions. Eliminate daylight and bright twilight, then check clouds, haze, precipitation, local light pollution and obstructions using a local weather source.
- Face the useful part of the sky. The aurora need not be overhead. A bright, expanded oval may appear toward the horizon, so choose a site with a broad, unobstructed view.
- Keep watching through the valid interval. Short-lived brightenings can occur after a map update; one glance at one colour band is not a complete observing session.
Common interpretation errors and their fixes
“Kp 5 means I will see aurora from my town.”
Kp 5 marks the lower edge of NOAA’s geomagnetic-storm scale, but it is a global three-hour index. Fix the mistake by combining Kp with the oval’s modeled latitude, your magnetic location, darkness and the short-term map.
“The green line is the exact southern edge of visibility.”
It is a modeled oval, not a sharp optical boundary. Bright aurora may be visible from farther equatorward, especially under dark, clear conditions. Use the boundary as a guide to probability, not a cutoff.
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Aurora is a nighttime phenomenon. If your location is in daylight, wait for local darkness and use the forecast valid for that interval.
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“The 30-minute map always predicts 30 minutes into the future.”
NOAA states a typical 30–90-minute operational lead time, while its tutorial describes a 15–45-minute L1-based horizon. If the data-quality note says current Kp is being used because L1 data are unavailable or contaminated, there is no normal upstream-data lead time.
“Tomorrow night’s label is fixed to my local calendar date.”
The experimental product changes its tomorrow-to-tonight transition at 12:00 UTC. Check the current label and timestamp instead of assuming that your local midnight controls the product.
“A clear space-weather map means a clear sky.”
Geomagnetic products do not provide a local cloud or visibility forecast. Check local weather and the observing site separately.
Technical notes on the data behind the maps
L1 measurements
The L1 point is about 1.6 million kilometres upstream from Earth in the solar-wind flow. Solar-wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field measured there are the normal inputs for the short-term OVATION estimate. The travel time between L1 and Earth is why this product can provide a short warning before conditions reach Earth.
Fallback to current Kp
When solar-wind observations are contaminated or unavailable, NOAA may estimate the forcing from current Kp. That substitution can keep a map available, but it removes the upstream observation lead time. Always read the page’s note before interpreting the forecast as predictive.
Three-hour averaging
Kp is not an instantaneous sensor reading. Its three-hour interval and observatory-network calculation smooth short-term changes into a standardized planetary index. A rapidly changing event can therefore look different on the short-term OVATION map than a single displayed Kp value suggests.
Quick Recap
Choosing a forecast for different observing plans
| Your question | Primary display | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| Should I go outside in the next hour? | OVATION 30-minute forecast | Check the current timestamp, oval position, intensity colours and data-quality note; then confirm darkness and local sky conditions. |
| Is tonight worth planning for in North America? | Tonight-and-tomorrow-night experimental outlook | Read the maximum forecast Kp for the 6 p.m.–6 a.m. US Central Time window and compare the oval with your region. |
| Why did the outlook change? | Both products, plus the Kp page | Compare update times and determine whether new solar-wind data, forecast Kp or a data-quality fallback changed the display. |
| Can I see aurora from outside the oval? | OVATION map plus viewing guidance | Consider whether the emission is bright enough and whether your site is dark and unobstructed; the oval is not a hard visibility boundary. |
Where to verify the information
- NOAA Aurora – 30 Minute Forecast — short-term OVATION map, image loops and grid data for both hemispheres.
- NOAA Aurora for Tonight and Tomorrow Night (Experimental) — North American night-ahead view driven by forecast Kp.
- NOAA Planetary K-index — the 0–9 geomagnetic index, three-hour product definition and storm-scale mapping.
- NOAA Aurora Tutorial — explanations of Kp, forecast horizons and the auroral oval.
- NOAA Tips on Viewing the Aurora — practical guidance on location, darkness, timing and the limits of Kp-to-latitude estimates.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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