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China exposure is not a single percentage. A technology company can depend on China through customer revenue, factories, suppliers, components, logistics, export licenses, or Taiwan-linked production even when its reported China sales are small. The practical approach is to build a company-by-company exposure map, keep each measurement tied to its definition and fiscal period, then aggregate overlapping vulnerabilities using your actual portfolio weights.
This guide shows how to do that from annual reports, quarterly filings, and current policy disclosures. It separates observed figures from qualitative risk statements, so you do not mistake a risk-factor warning for a forecast or treat international revenue as China revenue.
What China exposure means for a technology stock
Start with four separate exposure channels rather than assigning one China-risk label:
- Direct commercial exposure: sales to customers in China, Chinese end markets, local subsidiaries, and revenue tied to Chinese demand.
- Operational exposure: manufacturing, assembly, testing, warehousing, suppliers, components, raw materials, logistics, and service operations located in China or dependent on Chinese capacity.
- Regulatory exposure: US or other export controls, licenses, sanctions, tariffs, restricted entities, end-use rules, and possible Chinese countermeasures.
- Regional exposure: dependencies involving Taiwan and other East Asian production or logistics hubs that can be affected by changing China-Taiwan relations.
These channels can move independently. A company might reduce China sales while remaining dependent on a Chinese supplier, or have little direct China revenue but rely on a Taiwan foundry for its most important products. Record measured facts separately from management’s descriptions of possible outcomes.
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Build an exposure worksheet before comparing companies
Create one row per issuer and at least these columns:
| Column | What to record | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Direct China business | China revenue, customer-location definition, products and end markets, trend by fiscal period | Shows demand and sales concentration, but only on the issuer’s stated basis |
| Customer concentration | Largest-customer percentage, named customers where disclosed, contract or segment dependence | A small number of buyers can create more risk than a broad market percentage suggests |
| Manufacturing and supply chain | Factories, contract manufacturers, foundries, assembly and test sites, suppliers, components, materials and logistics routes | Captures disruption risk that geographic revenue omits |
| Policy sensitivity | Products, customers, destinations and transactions requiring licenses; tariffs, sanctions and countermeasures | Rules can change which sales or inputs are legally available |
| Taiwan and regional links | Suppliers, foundries, materials and shipping routes connected to Taiwan or nearby hubs | Regional disruption can affect a company with little China revenue |
| Evidence date and definition | Filing date, fiscal period, note number and the issuer’s geographic definition | Prevents stale figures and false comparisons |
Use a separate field for confidence. “30% of revenue from customers in China” is a measured disclosure. “A deterioration in China-Taiwan relations could affect sourcing” is a conditional risk statement. They should not receive the same treatment in your analysis.
Step 1: Define exactly what you are measuring
Direct revenue is only one layer
Decide whether your first metric is revenue from customers located in China, revenue shipped to China, revenue generated by Chinese operations, or assets located there. Issuers use different bases, and the same company’s definition can change by note or reporting period. Write the definition beside the number instead of copying a percentage into a common column without context.
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Separate customer location from shipment destination
A product may be sold to a multinational’s purchasing entity in one country and shipped to a facility in another. An asset-location disclosure measures something different again. If a filing does not explain the basis clearly, mark the definition as uncertain and avoid ranking it against a competitor’s figure.
Set the comparison period
Use the latest annual report and then check for a newer quarterly filing. Record the fiscal year or quarter and filing date next to every figure. Historical percentages show what was reported in that period; they do not establish current exposure after a product mix, customer mix or policy change.
Step 2: Read the filings in a consistent order
- Business section: identify products, end markets, regions, manufacturing sites and critical inputs.
- Geographic revenue note: copy the issuer’s wording, denominator, fiscal period and customer or shipment basis.
- Customer concentration disclosure: record any customer above the stated reporting threshold and whether the customer is identified by name, region or segment.
- Supply-chain description: note owned facilities, contract manufacturers, foundries, assembly and test providers, key components and raw materials.
- Risk factors: search for China, Taiwan, export controls, licenses, tariffs, sanctions, countermeasures, restricted entities and end uses.
- Management discussion: look for observed effects on orders, margins, inventory, capacity or delivery times, distinguishing those observations from hypothetical risks.
- Newer quarterly filing: update policy language, material events and any revised geographic or concentration figures.
Preserve the original wording in notes. A later reviewer should be able to tell whether “China revenue” means customers in China, shipments to China or another measure.
Step 3: Measure direct China business and concentration
Use trends, not one year’s percentage
Compare at least three fiscal periods when the issuer provides them. A declining share can reflect falling Chinese demand, stronger growth elsewhere, customer changes, restrictions, or a reclassification. It is not proof that manufacturing or supplier dependence declined.
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KLA Corporation reported revenue from products and services to customers in China of 30% in fiscal 2026, compared with 33% in fiscal 2025 and 43% in fiscal 2024. These are KLA-specific figures from its fiscal 2026 annual report, measured on the company’s stated customer basis. The filing also says current and future Commerce rules could reduce future revenue. Do not use the series as a sector benchmark or as a forecast for another issuer.
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| Issuer and measure | Fiscal 2024 | Fiscal 2025 | Fiscal 2026 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLA revenue from products and services to customers in China | 43% | 33% | 30% | Issuer-specific customer-revenue disclosure; fiscal periods and definition must accompany the percentages |
Axcelis: why international revenue is not China revenue
Axcelis Technologies, Inc. reported international revenue of 83.7% in 2025, 85.8% in 2024 and 84.1% in 2023. “International” means revenue outside the United States; it does not identify the China share. Axcelis separately reported that one customer represented 11.0% of consolidated revenue in 2025. The filing also discusses China customer and export-control risks, but the 11.0% figure is not identified as China-specific.
| Axcelis measure | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International revenue as a share of total revenue | 84.1% | 85.8% | 83.7% | It does not equal China revenue |
| Largest customer as a share of consolidated revenue | Not stated for this comparison | Not stated for this comparison | 11.0% | The filing excerpt does not identify this customer or percentage as China-specific |
These examples show why you must keep three questions separate: how much revenue is associated with China, how much is outside the home market generally, and how concentrated the customer base is.
Ask whether the exposure is broad or concentrated
A broad customer base can behave differently from one large contract. Record named major customers where disclosed, end-market concentration, renewal or order timing, and whether restricted products or customers are material. A company can have moderate China revenue but high sensitivity if one buyer, product family or license determines a large share of shipments.
Step 4: Map manufacturing and supply-chain dependence
Read beyond the revenue note. Look for:
- Owned factories, contract manufacturers and subcontractors in China, Taiwan and other regional hubs.
- Wafer foundries, assembly and test providers, board makers and packaging capacity.
- Single-source or difficult-to-replace components, materials, chemicals and equipment.
- Warehouses, repair centers, distributors and logistics routes.
- Local subsidiaries that provide sales, service, installation or technical support.
- Management’s estimate of how quickly production could move, qualify a replacement supplier or rebuild inventory.
Then assess substitutability. A supplier in China is not equivalent to a supplier that can be replaced next quarter. Ask whether an alternative is qualified, whether capacity exists, what tooling or regulatory approvals are required, and whether moving production would increase cost or delay deliveries.
What AMD’s disclosure illustrates
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. describes controls that can affect sales as well as manufacturing, testing and warehousing, and the ability to meet demand outside China. Its August 2026 Form 10-Q states: “To the extent our compliance with U.S. export controls and other restrictions causes us or our affiliates to become subject to these or similar Chinese countermeasures, we could face conflicting legal obligations, restrictions on our operations and transactions in China, supply chain disruption, and reputational harm, any of which could materially adversely affect our business, operating results, and financial condition.” This is AMD’s conditional risk statement, not an independent probability estimate or proof that a disruption occurred.
What Cisco’s disclosure illustrates
Cisco’s annual-report risk discussion describes possible restrictions affecting its products, suppliers, integrated circuits and component inputs. Treat that language as a map of potential channels. It does not establish that a particular supplier is currently blocked or that a stated disruption will happen.
Step 5: Analyze export controls, licenses and countermeasures
Policy sensitivity is product- and transaction-specific. For each issuer, answer:
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- Which products, technologies, customers or end uses are covered?
- Does a shipment require a license, and is the license available, limited or uncertain?
- Could a rule affect sales only, or also manufacturing, testing, warehousing, financing, service and software updates?
- Are restricted entities or military end uses relevant to the customer base?
- Could tariffs, sanctions or Chinese countermeasures affect inputs, operations, reputation or transactions outside China?
- What alternatives does management identify, and how long would they take?
AMD’s August 2026 filing discusses the possibility of conflicting US restrictions and Chinese countermeasures, with effects on operations, transactions, supply chains and reputation. Axcelis describes export controls affecting shipments to certain customers and emphasizes that policy changes are uncertain. These disclosures are company-specific and time-sensitive. A country-level discount applied uniformly to every technology stock hides the differences in products, licenses and alternatives.
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Step 6: Include Taiwan and regional dependencies
Direct China sales do not capture Taiwan-linked exposure. Trace foundries, advanced packaging, components, materials, contract manufacturers and shipping routes. Identify whether a company has dual sourcing, qualified alternatives or inventory buffers.
Cisco’s 2026 annual report conditionally warns that deterioration in China-Taiwan relations could affect sales, sourcing, suppliers and component costs. This is not a prediction of conflict. It is a reason to test how a regional shock would travel through the company’s supply chain and customers.
Step 7: Convert company findings into portfolio exposure
Use weighted measures carefully
For a disclosed direct-revenue metric, a simple portfolio proxy is:
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For example, an 8% portfolio position multiplied by a 30% issuer-reported China customer-revenue share contributes 2.4 percentage points to this proxy. The calculation is illustrative; it does not mean 2.4% of the portfolio’s total economic value depends on China because the issuer’s denominator, margins, products and supply-chain exposure may differ.
Keep qualitative channels separate
Do not add a guessed number for factory, supplier, regulatory or Taiwan exposure. Score those channels descriptively—for example, low, moderate or high—with a sentence explaining the evidence and its date. A qualitative “high” for a single-source foundry is not mathematically interchangeable with a 30% revenue figure.
Look for common nodes
Make a second portfolio table listing shared foundries, contract manufacturers, component suppliers, logistics routes, Chinese end markets and export-control categories. Several holdings can be vulnerable to one disruption even when each has modest China revenue. Shared dependence is a concentration risk that a position-weighted revenue average will miss.
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For each common node, ask whether another supplier is qualified, whether capacity is available, how long a transfer would take and whether the companies’ exposures are truly independent. A portfolio may appear diversified by ticker while remaining concentrated in one manufacturing region or policy channel.
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A practical comparison framework
When comparing two or more technology issuers, use the same period and definitions wherever possible:
| Comparison axis | Questions to answer |
|---|---|
| Direct China revenue | What percentage, measured how, for which fiscal period, and with what trend? |
| Customer and end-market concentration | Is demand broad, or does one customer, product or market dominate? |
| Manufacturing footprint | Where are factories, contract manufacturers, foundries, assembly and test sites? |
| Supplier and component dependence | Which inputs are single-source or difficult to qualify elsewhere? |
| Export-control exposure | Which products, customers and end uses require licenses or face restrictions? |
| Alternatives | Can production, customers or inputs be shifted, and on what timetable? |
| Taiwan and regional links | Which suppliers, materials and routes depend on Taiwan or nearby hubs? |
| Portfolio overlap | How much of the portfolio shares the same vendor, node or policy channel? |
If a value is not disclosed on a comparable basis, write “not stated” and preserve the source’s limitation. Do not infer a number from a broad regional category.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Common mistakes and how to correct them
Using international revenue as China exposure
Problem: an international-sales percentage includes every country outside the issuer’s home market.
Correction: record it as international revenue and locate a separate China disclosure before drawing a conclusion.
Comparing percentages without definitions
Problem: one company reports customer location while another reports shipment destination or assets.
Correction: place the definition, denominator and fiscal period beside each figure.
Treating a risk factor as an event
Problem: a conditional warning is presented as evidence of an actual disruption.
Correction: label it as a possible outcome and search the filing for observed effects separately.
Assuming a lower China-sales share means lower overall dependence
Problem: sales decline while a Chinese supplier, foundry or component remains essential.
Correction: update commercial and operational columns independently.
Applying one country discount to every tech stock
Problem: products, licenses, customers and alternatives differ widely.
Correction: identify the specific policy channel and affected transaction for each issuer.
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Problem: a list of company percentages hides a large position or common manufacturing node.
Correction: calculate weighted direct-revenue proxies and maintain a separate overlap map.
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When and how to refresh the analysis
Refresh the worksheet after each annual report, relevant quarterly filing, material company announcement or significant regulatory change. Keep the prior figure rather than overwriting it, and mark the period that each number describes. Recheck:
- Geographic-revenue definitions and denominators.
- Customer concentration and named-customer disclosures.
- Manufacturing, supplier and foundry locations.
- License requirements, restricted entities, tariffs and countermeasures.
- Management comments on alternatives, inventory and delivery capacity.
- Portfolio weights and newly shared vendors or regional dependencies.
Historical exposure can rise or fall for many reasons. Only a later filing or dated company disclosure can establish the newer period.
How to report your conclusion without false precision
Write a short conclusion for each holding using this order:
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- State the measured direct China figure, its definition and fiscal period—or say it is not stated.
- Describe customer concentration separately.
- List material manufacturing, supplier, component and logistics dependencies.
- Identify specific export-control, licensing, tariff or countermeasure channels.
- Note Taiwan or regional links and the availability of alternatives.
- Explain how the holding overlaps with other portfolio companies.
- State what evidence would change the assessment at the next refresh.
A conclusion such as “high China exposure” is incomplete unless the reader can see whether “high” refers to customers, factories, policy restrictions, suppliers or a combination. There is no published, comparable cross-sector statistic that establishes one universal China-exposure score, so a transparent map is more defensible than a single invented number.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fastest reliable way to measure a company’s China exposure?
Read the latest annual report and newer quarterly filing, then record direct China revenue, customer concentration, manufacturing and supplier locations, export-control channels, and Taiwan-linked dependencies in separate fields with the fiscal period and definition beside each figure.
Does a fall in China revenue mean a stock is less exposed to China?
Not necessarily. Sales may decline while the company remains dependent on Chinese suppliers, manufacturing, components, logistics or policy-sensitive inputs. Update commercial and operational exposure independently.
How often should a portfolio China-exposure map be updated?
Update it after annual and relevant quarterly filings, material company disclosures, or significant regulatory changes, while preserving the source period for every historical figure.
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