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Evaluate a proposed data center as an evidence-gated infrastructure project, not as a bet on sector growth. Before committing capital, prove that the specific site can receive the promised power on a credible date, that permits and construction can deliver the contracted capacity, that identified customers are creditworthy and obligated to pay, and that the fully loaded project produces acceptable returns after realistic downside cases.
Market enthusiasm is useful context but is not project underwriting. CBRE’s 2025 survey found that 95% of 92 major investors worldwide planned to increase data center investment in 2025, while 41% planned to allocate at least $500 million of equity, up from 30% in 2024. The same survey found that 39% viewed regulation and power availability as the top investment challenge, versus 10% citing debt availability. Those figures describe investor sentiment, not the viability or price of a particular proposal.
What your underwriting must prove
A defensible investment memo should answer five separate questions. Treating one positive answer as proof of the others is a common source of loss.
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- Can the asset be energized? Confirm the utility’s deliverable megawatts, interconnection scope, upgrade responsibility, conditions precedent and date when usable power reaches the site.
- Can it be delivered on schedule? Tie permits, equipment procurement, construction milestones and commissioning tests to an integrated schedule with contractual remedies.
- Will customers actually pay? Distinguish signed, enforceable commitments from letters of intent, brokered demand, preleasing percentages and broad market forecasts.
- What is the complete cost? Include site work, shell and core, electrical and cooling systems, utility work, tenant fit-out, financing carry, taxes, insurance, labor, contingencies and operating reserves.
- Do returns survive bad outcomes? Model delayed power, cost escalation, tenant non-commencement or default, slower lease-up, higher interest expense, cap-rate expansion and a delayed exit.
Commercial research from JLL and CBRE can frame market conditions, but it does not replace legal, engineering, credit, tax or investment advice on the proposed asset. Refresh local and project evidence immediately before a capital decision.
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Define exactly what you are buying
Start by writing a one-page definition of the investment. Identify the legal owner, the investor’s security, the development stage, the party responsible for each major cost and the point at which cash flow is expected to begin. A capacity number without this definition is not an investable description.
| Strategy or stage | What the investor may own | Primary risks to underwrite |
|---|---|---|
| Stabilized operating facility | An operating building, installed systems and in-place leases | Tenant concentration, renewal and re-leasing, operating performance, equipment refresh, energy cost and exit valuation |
| Powered shell | A site and building with power infrastructure, often before tenant fit-out | Tenant conversion, fit-out cost, density compatibility, rent commencement and the risk that contracted power is not yet usable |
| Greenfield development | Land, development rights and a plan to build new capacity | Site control, permits, utility upgrades, construction schedule, financing carry and demand arriving after completion |
| Hyperscale build-to-suit | A purpose-built facility developed to a major user’s specifications under a long-term lease | Single-tenant credit, delivery acceptance, change orders, customer-specific technical requirements and remedies if the tenant delays or cancels |
CBRE Investment Management describes hyperscale build-to-suit as a common structure in which a developer builds to a major user’s specifications under a long-term lease. It also distinguishes development strategies from approaches that reduce operating exposure but give up recurring cash flow and potential valuation upside. Obtain the actual partnership agreement, development agreement, lease, management agreement and budget rather than relying on the strategy label.
Map ownership and obligations
- List the land, building, substations, generators, cooling plant, networking assets and tenant equipment, and state who owns each item at completion.
- Identify whether the tenant or landlord pays for fit-out, utility upgrades, replacement reserves, property taxes, insurance, security and energy.
- Record guarantees, completion support, liquidated damages, parent support, step-in rights and termination rights.
- State which costs are outside the asset-level budget, including corporate overhead, development fees, leasing commissions and financing fees.
Verify power, site control and approvals
Power delivery is usually the first project-specific gating item. JLL’s 2026 outlook says, “Speed to power is the primary criteria driving site selection, followed by community support, latency and proximity to customers.” JLL’s 2025 outlook separately observes, “In many markets it can take four years or more to have high-capacity power lines extended to new development sites.” That is a market observation, not a promise about your site. CBRE also reports projects remaining under construction for extended periods because of power shortages.
Documents to request from the sponsor
- Utility correspondence naming the site, requested load, service voltage, interconnection point and current queue position.
- A signed or otherwise enforceable service, interconnection or capacity agreement, with deposits and conditions precedent identified.
- Utility studies showing network upgrades, substation work, transmission extensions, protection requirements and who pays.
- A milestone schedule for design, procurement, construction, testing and energization, with utility dependencies shown separately from building work.
- Evidence of site control, easements, rights of way, zoning, environmental reviews, water rights and access for transmission and telecom routes.
- Planning, building, electrical, environmental and generation permits, including appeal periods and unresolved conditions.
- A backup-power plan specifying generator or alternative supply capacity, fuel storage, testing, emissions limits and islanding capability.
Test the energization date
Ask what “power available” means in the schedule. It may mean an executed utility agreement, construction power, a partially energized substation or tested capacity available to the tenant. Require a definition tied to a commissioning test and a number of usable megawatts at the bus or customer handoff point.
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Identify who bears delay risk. If the utility controls a transmission upgrade, a building contractor cannot guarantee the date. If the sponsor must fund an upgrade, verify financing, procurement and refund provisions. Model temporary generation, reduced initial load and additional interest carry only if they are technically permitted and contractually available; do not treat them as automatic substitutes for grid service.
Validate demand and the leasing case
Separate addressable demand from binding commitments. A market with little available capacity can support rents, but it does not make a particular building leasable. For every claimed tenant or megawatt, obtain the underlying document and identify what happens if delivery slips.
Review each commitment
- Tenant legal name, ultimate parent, credit rating or audited financial evidence, guarantor and concentration exposure.
- Contracted critical load, reserved capacity, usable-floor-area requirement, density and cooling specification.
- Lease term, escalation, security deposit or letter of credit, take-or-pay language and rent commencement trigger.
- Conditions precedent, acceptance tests, delivery milestones, expansion rights, contraction rights and termination rights.
- Tenant fit-out scope, change-order process, network obligations and responsibility for stranded equipment.
- Remedies for late power, late construction, failure to meet service levels and failure to achieve the contracted efficiency.
A letter of intent, reservation fee or announced customer is not equivalent to rent-paying occupancy. Label every megawatt as signed and unconditional, signed but conditional, reserved, under negotiation or speculative. Apply a probability and timing assumption to each category, and document who approved it.
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Vacancy figures only mean something when geography, market definition and period match. The following CBRE observations should not be blended:
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| Statistic | Geography and period | How to use it |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8% average vacancy | Primary U.S. markets, based on 2024 conditions; reported in CBRE’s 2025 U.S. outlook | Context for that U.S. market series and period, not a current global vacancy assumption |
| 1.6% vacancy | Primary North American markets in H1 2025; reported in CBRE’s North America H1 2025 report | A separate North American observation that cannot be averaged with the U.S. 2024 figure |
Compare the proposal with facilities serving the same customer segment, power density, connectivity profile and delivery period. Ask whether the published vacancy measure includes space that is powered, commissioned and available to lease, or space still waiting for power or fit-out. Validate achievable rent and lease-up with current local transactions, not only a regional headline.
Build a complete cost and schedule model
Use a cost-loaded critical-path schedule rather than a single cost-per-megawatt assumption. JLL forecasts an average global data center construction cost of $11.3 million per MW for 2026, but specifies that the figure covers shell and core. JLL also says AI infrastructure tenant fit-out can reach $25 million per MW. The latter is a possible tenant fit-out cost, not an addition that can be ignored and not a replacement for the shell-and-core estimate.
Cost categories that belong in the model
| Category | Questions to answer |
|---|---|
| Land and site preparation | Are acquisition, grading, drainage, roads, security boundaries, environmental remediation and off-site works included? |
| Shell and core | What building, structural, fire-protection and base-building scope is covered, and what is excluded? |
| Electrical infrastructure | Are utility interconnection, substations, transformers, switchgear, UPS systems, batteries, generators and distribution included? |
| Cooling and water | Are chillers, heat rejection, pumps, controls, water treatment, water rights and drought-related upgrades included? |
| Tenant fit-out | Who funds racks, busways, high-density cooling, cabling, security zones and customer-specific systems? |
| Connectivity | Are carrier entrances, diverse paths, meet-me rooms, cross-connects and recurring telecom charges included? |
| Soft costs and carry | Include design, permits, legal, insurance, taxes, development fees, lender fees, interest during construction and operating reserves. |
| Contingency and escalation | Show separate design contingency, construction contingency, procurement escalation and schedule-related carry. |
Reconcile every budget line to a contract, quotation, quantity takeoff or documented benchmark. Record whether pricing is fixed, capped, indexed or open-book. Test long-lead equipment, replacement availability and foreign-exchange exposure. A per-MW benchmark can be a reasonableness check, but it cannot establish the cost of a site with unusual utility work, high-density AI requirements or expensive local labor.
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Link schedule milestones to cash flow
- Set a baseline date for land closing, permits, utility commitment, notice to proceed and first energization.
- Identify the critical path through utility upgrades, transformers, generators, cooling equipment, switchgear and commissioning.
- Attach payment milestones and retainage to independently verifiable work, not to elapsed time.
- Model interest carry and operating expenses for each month of delay, including a scenario in which power arrives after the building is complete.
- Define substantial completion, beneficial occupancy and customer acceptance separately.
- Require an updated independent schedule review before each major draw.
Match financing to delivery and lease-up risk
Review the financing as a project-delivery instrument, not just a leverage percentage. A short maturity or aggressive interest-only period can force a refinancing while the facility is still waiting for power or tenants.
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Terms to underwrite
- Loan-to-cost and loan-to-value at both initial underwriting and stressed value.
- Draw conditions, equity-first requirements, cost-to-complete tests and lender approval of change orders.
- Base rate, spread, hedging, interest-rate caps, extension fees and default pricing.
- Maturity, extension tests, amortization, cash sweeps and refinancing assumptions.
- Completion guarantees, payment and performance bonds, sponsor support, reserves and recourse.
- Lease-up, debt-service-coverage and occupancy covenants, including how conditional leases are treated.
JLL’s 2025 outlook provides sector-level financing context, but market ranges are not a recommended leverage level for a particular proposal. Confirm the actual jurisdiction, borrower, collateral, lender terms and covenant definitions in executed documents. Model a financing case in which equity funds overruns and a case in which the lender stops draws after a missed milestone.
Test operations, resilience and technical fit
An existing building is not automatically suitable for a new workload. CBRE Investment Management emphasizes uninterrupted electric power and occupier-specific technical requirements. Obtain an engineering review showing that the proposed tenant’s density, cooling, network, security and redundancy requirements match the installed design.
Operational diligence checklist
- Operator experience with comparable critical-load density, uptime commitments and incident response.
- Redundancy topology for utility feeds, generators, UPS, cooling, controls and network paths.
- Preventive maintenance, testing frequency, spare-parts strategy and maintenance-window procedures.
- Energy-efficiency design, metering, power-usage-effectiveness assumptions and exposure to energy-price changes.
- Cooling technology, water consumption, discharge requirements and resilience to water restrictions.
- Physical security, cyber controls, access logging, incident escalation and tenant segregation.
- Insurance limits, exclusions, business-interruption coverage and responsibility for deductibles.
- Equipment refresh cycles, stranded-asset risk and the cost of upgrading for higher-density compute.
Require commissioning records, failure-mode-and-effects analysis, independent testing and service-level reporting for an operating asset. For a development, require a commissioning plan with pass/fail criteria, witness rights and a remedy if the facility cannot meet contracted availability or density.
Use market evidence without mistaking it for project evidence
Macro indicators can help set assumptions, but each must retain its original scope. CBRE’s 95% investment-intent figure covers 92 major investors worldwide and describes plans for 2025. Its 41% figure concerns planned equity allocations of at least $500 million. Neither establishes the demand, pricing or financing of a specific facility.
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JLL’s $11.3 million-per-MW forecast is a 2026 global average for shell and core. The possible $25 million-per-MW AI fit-out cost is a separate tenant-capital observation. Neither number proves the cost of a particular region, design, density or delivery contract. Keep global forecasts separate from U.S. and North American vacancy observations, and label every assumption with its geography, period and scope.
Stress-test returns and set capital-release gates
Build an integrated model that connects power, schedule, leasing, cost and financing. At minimum, run the following downside cases:
| Scenario | Model change | What it reveals |
|---|---|---|
| Delayed energization | Move usable grid power and rent commencement by 6, 12 and 24 months, with construction and interest carry continuing | Exposure to utility control and whether the project survives without revenue |
| Permit or construction delay | Extend the critical path and apply contract limits, liquidated damages and uncapped owner costs separately | Whether schedule protection is real or merely assumed |
| Cost overrun | Increase site, electrical, cooling and fit-out costs independently, then test a combined shock | Equity requirement, covenant headroom and completion risk |
| Tenant failure | Remove the largest tenant, delay commencement or apply a lower-credit replacement rent | Concentration, re-leasing time and stranded fit-out exposure |
| Financing shock | Raise interest expense, remove an extension and require additional equity | Refinancing and forced-sale risk |
| Exit impairment | Expand the exit capitalization rate, delay sale and reduce liquidity | Dependence on a favorable valuation environment |
Do not hide risks in a single blended probability. Show which risks are allocated to the utility, contractor, tenant, lender, operator and equity. Returns should be calculated from the proposal’s own cash flows, financing and risk allocation; the cited sources do not prescribe a universal hurdle rate.
Release capital only when evidence arrives
- Site gate: executed site control, title and easement review, zoning path and environmental findings.
- Power gate: named utility commitment, interconnection scope, upgrade funding, milestone dates and delay remedies.
- Approval gate: material permits issued, appeals addressed and conditions priced into the budget.
- Design gate: independent engineering confirms density, redundancy, cooling, water, network and security requirements.
- Contract gate: fixed or capped major scope, long-lead equipment orders, bonds and enforceable change-order controls.
- Leasing gate: credit-reviewed commitments with clear commencement, acceptance, security and late-delivery provisions.
- Financing gate: committed debt, hedging plan, reserves, completion support and a documented cost-to-complete test.
- Commissioning gate: witnessed tests demonstrate usable power, capacity, efficiency and service-level compliance before full rent assumptions are recognized.
Compare competing proposals on a consistent basis
When choosing among assets, normalize the comparison before ranking returns. Use the same capacity definition, delivery date, geography, customer segment, lease treatment, cost scope, financing assumptions and exit period.
| Comparison axis | Evidence to place side by side |
|---|---|
| Asset stage and strategy | Operating, powered shell, greenfield or build-to-suit; ownership and operating responsibilities |
| Power | Secured and deliverable megawatts, energization date, redundancy and upgrade exposure |
| Market and segment | Local vacancy and rents for the same segment and reporting period; latency and connectivity |
| Leasing | Committed capacity, lease conditions, counterparty credit, commencement and termination rights |
| Cost and schedule | Fully loaded cost, contingency, long-lead items, critical path and delay carry |
| Financing | Leverage, maturity, rate exposure, covenants, reserves and completion support |
| Operations | Redundancy, operator record, efficiency, water, security, insurance and technical fit |
| Downside and exit | Equity loss, covenant breach, replacement-tenant time, cap-rate sensitivity and exit liquidity |
Red flags that should pause a commitment
- A headline megawatt figure without a utility letter, interconnection status or energization definition.
- A “fully leased” claim supported only by a reservation, memorandum or nonbinding letter.
- Shell-and-core cost presented as total project cost, with tenant fit-out omitted.
- Vacancy, rent or demand statistics that mix U.S., North American and global markets or different reporting periods.
- A schedule that shows building completion but no utility, commissioning or customer-acceptance milestone.
- Tenant economics that assume immediate rent despite unresolved power, permits or fit-out conditions.
- Debt sized to a stabilized valuation while the project remains exposed to construction and lease-up risk.
- No independent engineering review of density, cooling, redundancy, water or network requirements.
- Contingency that is a single unexplained percentage rather than a risk-linked allowance.
- Returns that work only with an on-time exit, unchanged interest rates and no tenant interruption.
When a red flag appears, do not simply add a larger contingency. Convert the uncertainty into a document request, a contractual condition, a staged funding gate or an explicit downside assumption. If the uncertainty cannot be priced or allocated, the appropriate action may be to defer the investment.
A practical decision sequence
- Write the asset definition, ownership map and investment thesis in measurable terms.
- Obtain site, utility, permit, engineering, lease, financing and operating documents.
- Reconcile capacity, schedule and cost claims to primary project evidence.
- Classify each megawatt and each dollar as committed, conditional, estimated or speculative.
- Build the base case and independently reviewed downside cases.
- Assess legal, tax, credit, engineering, environmental and insurance issues with qualified advisers.
- Negotiate protections that match the risk: guarantees, milestones, remedies, reserves, termination rights and step-in rights.
- Release capital only after the relevant gate is satisfied and the model is updated.
- Monitor utility milestones, permits, procurement, budget, leasing, commissioning and covenants throughout construction.
The decision is not whether data centers are attractive in general. It is whether this proposal has verifiable power, an executable schedule, complete costs, enforceable demand, resilient operations and sufficient downside protection at the price and financing terms offered.
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