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Using U.S. 2024 average capacity factors, about 6.5 million 400-watt solar panels would match the annual electricity generation of a 1,000-megawatt natural-gas combined-cycle plant. That is an annual-energy comparison—not a claim that solar alone would provide the same dependable power at every hour.
Why there is no single panel count
Natural-gas power plants vary in size and operating pattern, so the answer depends on which plant is being compared and what “replace” means. The estimate below uses a 1,000 MW combined-cycle plant as a clear reference and matches its annual electricity generation.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports a 2024 capacity factor of 60.5% for utility-scale natural-gas combined-cycle generators and 23.2% for utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) generators. EIA defines capacity factor as “a comparison of net generation with available capacity.” These are U.S. fleet-level annual averages, not guaranteed output rates for a specific plant or solar site. EIA Electric Power Annual, Table 4.08.A; Table 4.08.B.
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1. Calculate the gas plant’s annual generation
A 1,000 MW plant operating at a 60.5% capacity factor produces an estimated 5,299,800 MWh per year:
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1,000 MW × 8,760 hours × 0.605 = 5,299,800 MWh
2. Calculate the solar capacity needed to match that energy
At a 23.2% capacity factor, the estimated PV capacity required is about 2,608 MW:
1,000 MW × 0.605 ÷ 0.232 ≈ 2,608 MW of PV
This is a calculation from EIA’s 2024 annual capacity factors, not a capacity figure published by EIA for a particular replacement project.
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3. Convert PV capacity into an illustrative panel count
Assuming each panel is rated at 400 watts, 2,608 MW corresponds to about 6.52 million panels:
2,608 MW × 1,000,000 ÷ 400 W ≈ 6,520,000 panels
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The 400 W rating is an illustrative assumption, not a universal panel specification. To estimate a count for another module rating, use panel count = required PV MW × 1,000,000 ÷ panel watts. The result changes with the chosen panel wattage.
What this estimate does—and does not—replace
It matches annual energy, not hourly output
The calculation compares estimated annual generation. It does not show that solar panels alone can deliver electricity whenever the gas plant would have run. Solar output varies over the day and with conditions, while annual capacity factors smooth output across the year.
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Planning an actual replacement would require a specified plant and grid location, hourly demand and solar-production data, assumptions for storage and transmission, and a defined reliability standard. The annual-factor calculation does not size storage, transmission, or backup generation.
Gas plant technology changes the comparison
The benchmark is a combined-cycle plant, which EIA describes as highly efficient and configured for base and intermediate load. Simple-cycle gas turbines, steam turbines, and internal-combustion units are more often used for peak demand and can start and ramp quickly. Their operating patterns differ, so the 60.5% combined-cycle figure should not be applied to every gas-fired plant. EIA’s analysis of natural-gas generation by technology and region reports that combined-cycle plants’ operating rates vary by plant age and region.
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How the benchmark fits the U.S. fleet
EIA’s 2024 inventory lists 6,693 utility-scale natural-gas generators with 506,371.0 MW of net summer capacity, and 7,141 utility-scale solar PV generators with 122,061.8 MW of net summer capacity. These fleet totals provide context, but they are not inputs for the one-plant calculation; that calculation uses the capacity factors and the stated 1,000 MW reference size. EIA Electric Power Annual, Table 4.3.
EIA’s 2024 annual tables mark the figures final and describe yearly time-adjusted capacity factors as time-weighted averages of monthly values. The estimate therefore uses finalized U.S. annual fleet data rather than a site-specific forecast. A project-level answer can differ with location, plant design, solar conditions, and the intended reliability outcome.
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