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A bot should treat settlement as a sequence of rule-governed states, not as a single event or market-close timestamp. Polymarket and Kalshi rely on the individual market or contract’s written criteria, data source and determination process; similar headlines do not prove that two positions will pay out on the same basis. For certain short-duration Polymarket crypto Up/Down markets, a third-party guide reports a move to a 60-second TWAP, but the specific market’s configuration—not its date or label—is what a bot must check.
Why settlement design changes bot logic
A market can appear to have ended while its outcome is still awaiting source data, a determination or a challenge period. Those are distinct events, and a bot that treats them as interchangeable can misread an open position or trigger downstream actions too early.
Model the lifecycle as separate states: trading active or closed; event completed; required source data available; outcome proposed or pending; challenge or dispute; final resolution; and payout or settlement. These are useful implementation states, not guaranteed API field names. The venue’s actual contract or market rules determine which transitions apply.
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| Settlement question | Polymarket | Kalshi | Bot implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Where is the rule defined? | Predefined market rules are shown under the order book. Polymarket’s Help Center describes resolution by the UMA Optimistic Oracle. | The contract’s terms specify its outcome rule, information and source, according to Kalshi’s Help Center. | Read and retain the individual market or contract rule; do not derive settlement criteria from the headline. |
| What evidence determines the outcome? | For the short-duration crypto Up/Down markets covered by outcome·tick, the reported Chainlink stream and TWAP lookback are configured per market. | The applicable source is specified by the contract and can vary by contract. | Record the named source, observation window, units, timezone, threshold and any documented fallback. |
| When is the outcome final? | A proposed resolution enters a two-hour challenge period, per the Help Center. That period is not a universal estimate of the time from trading close to payout. | Determination may follow market close, depending on when the source agency publishes data. Kalshi gives a broad estimate of one hour to more than twelve hours after close. | Do not use close time as a proxy for determination or finalization. |
| Are similar markets interchangeable? | The cited TWAP report concerns specific crypto Up/Down durations, not every Polymarket market. | Outcome rules are contract-specific. | Compare the full payout criteria and measurement windows before treating prices as directly comparable. |
Sources: Polymarket Help Center, “How Are Prediction Markets Resolved?” (January 11, 2026); Kalshi Help Center, “Market Outcomes” (March 17, 2026) and “Market FAQs” (April 12, 2026); outcome·tick’s TWAP guide (publication date not shown).
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How does TWAP60 affect a short-duration Polymarket market?
TWAP is a time-weighted average price. In its report on Polymarket crypto Up/Down markets, outcome·tick describes a 60-second lookback and staged changes: 15-minute markets moved to it after August 7, 2026 UTC, and 5-minute markets after August 14, 2026 UTC. This is third-party reporting, not an official Polymarket or Chainlink announcement. The guide says configurations can coexist and directs readers to inspect the raw configuration for the individual market.
That scope matters to a bot: do not select a settlement method solely from the market’s duration or the date it was created. Read the actual market’s rule and configuration, and implement only the observation method that those materials establish. The cited guide does not establish a universal boundary-selection formula for every market, so do not assume how an exact start or end boundary is handled unless the specific rules document it.
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Does market close decide settlement?
No—not by itself. Kalshi says trading can end before or after an event, and that settlement follows confirmation from the official source specified by the contract. Its Help Center says outcome determination may take from one hour to more than twelve hours after market close, usually depending on when agency data arrives. A separate FAQ says most markets settle within a few hours after the outcome is known, often in about three hours, while some take longer as they wait for official data. These are guidance ranges, not guarantees, and they use different starting points: time after close versus time after the outcome is known.
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Polymarket’s Help Center describes a different stage: after a resolution is proposed, there is a two-hour challenge period. That describes the challenge window, not a universal end-to-end resolution time. A bot should wait for the venue’s actual final state rather than infer finality from an event ending, a trading cutoff, a source publication or an elapsed-time estimate.
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Is Kalshi’s TWAP the same as Polymarket TWAP60?
The Kalshi source describing TWAP covers perpetual-futures funding, not event-contract settlement. Kalshi describes an eight-hour calculation using premiums from 480 one-minute candles for that funding context. It does not establish that Kalshi event contracts settle using TWAP60 or the same methodology as the short-duration Polymarket markets reported by outcome·tick.
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What should a settlement-aware bot record?
- Rule text and criterion: Save the individual market’s or contract’s exact Yes/No condition and identify what result makes each outcome pay.
- Source and configuration: Record the named oracle, data source or agency, along with the actual per-market configuration when the rule depends on one.
- Observation details: Capture the specified boundary, timezone, measurement window, units, threshold inclusivity, rounding or precision, and any written fallback. Do not invent values where the terms are silent.
- Lifecycle state: Track trading status, event completion, source-data availability, pending or proposed determination, challenge or dispute, final resolution and payout as separate states.
- Cross-venue equivalence: Compare the source, measurement period and complete payout criteria before interpreting a price gap as an opportunity. A matching event description is not enough.
- Validation: Test the implementation against the actual rules and recorded data before relying on it. The cited materials establish mechanics, not bot performance or a profitable strategy.
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