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El Niño shifts warm water and tropical rainfall eastward across the Pacific, changing atmospheric circulation and the odds of seasonal weather patterns far beyond the ocean. Some regions tend to become wetter, others drier, and temperatures can also shift. These are historical tendencies—not promises about what a particular town, storm, or season will experience.
As of the World Meteorological Organization’s update published September 3, 2026, forecasts favored a very strong El Niño before a late-year peak. That is a dated forecast, not confirmation of what ultimately occurred or a local weather prediction. The distinction matters: an El Niño outlook describes a large-scale climate pattern, while local conditions depend on the season, location, and other influences too.
What El Niño is—and how it changes weather
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific. On average, El Niño occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months. Those figures describe broad averages, not a schedule: the next event is not due on a fixed timetable, and its duration can vary.
In ordinary conditions, trade winds help move warm surface water westward across the tropical Pacific. During El Niño, those winds weaken and warm water shifts toward the central and eastern Pacific. More heat and moisture then rise over those areas. The ocean and atmosphere interact, moving the main zones of tropical rainfall and changing circulation. Those circulation changes can affect the jet streams—the high-altitude winds that help steer weather systems—so influences can reach regions far from the tropical Pacific.
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This chain is why El Niño is not simply a warm patch of ocean, nor does it directly dictate the weather in every affected place. It changes the background conditions that make some seasonal patterns more or less likely. A regional tendency can be present without determining the outcome of a particular storm, rainfall event, or temperature record.
How NOAA identifies El Niño conditions
For its U.S. operational criteria, NOAA looks for sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region to be at least 0.5°C above normal for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. NOAA also requires a corresponding atmospheric response, including weakened trade winds and an eastward shift in tropical rainfall. This is NOAA’s criterion for identifying conditions; it is not a complete description of every ENSO index or method used worldwide.
Typical effects vary by season and region
The patterns below are historical associations summarized by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. They indicate where conditions have tended to be wetter, drier, warmer, or cooler during El Niño—not what is certain to happen in a given year. The two seasonal windows shown are December–February and June–August; the direction of a tendency can differ by region and season.
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| Region | Season | Typical association |
|---|---|---|
| East-central and eastern Pacific | Season varies | Increased rainfall |
| Coastal Ecuador and northwestern Peru | December–February | Wetter |
| Southern Brazil and central Argentina | December–February | Wetter |
| Equatorial eastern Africa | December–February | Wetter |
| Central Chile and intermountain regions of the United States | June–August | Wetter |
| Northern Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines | Tropical regions; seasonal tendency summarized by NOAA | Drier |
| Northern South America, Central America, and southern Africa | December–February | Drier |
| Eastern Australia | June–August | Drier |
| Southeastern Asia, Japan, southern Alaska, western and central Canada, southeastern Brazil, and southeastern Australia | December–February | Warmer than normal |
| U.S. Gulf Coast | December–February | Cooler than normal |
| West coast of South America and southeastern Brazil | June–August | Warmer than normal |
Rainfall: wetter areas and drier areas
One broad signal is the eastward shift of tropical Pacific rainfall. NOAA’s seasonal summary also associates El Niño with wetter conditions in several regions outside the Pacific, including coastal Ecuador and northwestern Peru, southern Brazil and central Argentina, and equatorial eastern Africa during December–February. For June–August, the summary lists central Chile and intermountain parts of the United States among areas with wetter-than-normal conditions.
Other areas have tended toward drier conditions. The listed regions include northern Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines in the tropics; northern South America, Central America, and southern Africa during December–February; and eastern Australia during June–August. These are not interchangeable forecasts: for example, a December–February association should not be treated as a prediction for June–August in the same region.
Temperature patterns are seasonal too
NOAA’s composites show warmer-than-normal conditions in many affected regions during December–February. Examples include southeastern Asia, Japan, southern Alaska, western and central Canada, southeastern Brazil, and southeastern Australia. The same seasonal summary lists cooler-than-normal conditions along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
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For June–August, NOAA lists warmer-than-normal conditions along the west coast of South America and across southeastern Brazil. Temperature tendencies are a separate part of the pattern from rainfall tendencies: a place can have a temperature signal without that alone establishing whether it will be wetter or drier.
What the U.S. winter pattern means
A strong El Niño can shift the Pacific jet stream and alter winter storm tracks. NOAA describes a tendency toward wetter and cooler-than-normal winter conditions across much of the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions across parts of the northern tier and Great Lakes region. “Much” and “parts” matter: the pattern is not uniform across the country, and a seasonal map is not a forecast for every city.
El Niño and tropical cyclones
Warm water and atmospheric conditions associated with El Niño can favor hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific during summer while hindering hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin. This describes a change in formation likelihood, not a guarantee that a Pacific hurricane will occur or that the Atlantic will have a quiet season. It also does not predict the track or impacts of an individual storm.
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What the 2026 outlook said—and what it did not say
The WMO update published September 3, 2026, reported that forecasts favored further strengthening, with a very strong El Niño forecast before a late-year peak. It gave nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño would persist through September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027. Those percentages were forecast probabilities for the climate pattern’s persistence, not proof of a verified outcome and not the probability of a particular local weather event.
The update followed an earlier WMO forecast published June 2, 2026. That May update gave an 80% likelihood of El Niño during June–August 2026 and a near-or-above-90% likelihood of continuation until at least November. It also reported that central-eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies were increasing as of mid-May. Because the August update was newer, the earlier percentages are useful as historical context, not as the current outlook.
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|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 update, published June 2, 2026 | June–August 2026; continuation until at least November | 80% likelihood during June–August; near or above 90% likelihood of continuation until at least November | A dated forecast later superseded by the August outlook |
| August 2026 update, published September 3, 2026 | September–November 2026 and December 2026–February 2027 | Nearly 100% likelihood of persistence through both periods; very strong event forecast before a late-year peak | A forecast of El Niño persistence and strength, not a local impact prediction or verified outcome |
WMO explicitly cautioned that the strength of an El Niño does not translate directly into the magnitude of impacts in every region. Even a very strong event cannot, by itself, tell a reader how much rain a particular place will receive or whether a specific season will be unusually warm. A dated global outlook and a regional seasonal forecast answer different questions.
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How to use an El Niño pattern without treating it as a guarantee
- Check the date and forecast period. A forecast for December–February does not answer what to expect in June–August. Use the newest outlook available for the period you care about; older probabilities describe what forecasters expected at the time.
- Match the region and variable. A rainfall tendency for one part of a country is not a temperature forecast for another. Identify whether the information concerns precipitation, temperature, or another outcome.
- Read “typical” as a shift in odds. A historical composite summarizes associations across past events. It does not promise that every El Niño will reproduce the pattern or that every location within a broad region will experience it.
- Separate event strength from local impact. Strength describes the large-scale climate event. Local outcomes also depend on the region, season, and other climate influences; WMO cautions that event strength alone does not determine impact magnitude.
- Use local forecasts for decisions. El Niño context can help frame seasonal risks, but a local weather forecast is needed for a particular place and timeframe. Do not use a global pattern map as a prediction of a specific storm, flood, drought, or temperature extreme.
Why these patterns matter to communities
Changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature can matter to agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems, and communities. The practical concern is not that El Niño imposes one uniform global outcome, but that it can shift the odds of conditions that people and natural systems depend on. The direction and significance of those shifts vary by region, season, and event.
There is no single global statistic in the cited material that captures the total size of El Niño’s weather impacts. Adding regional effects into one invented global figure would obscure the differences among locations and outcomes. For decisions about a specific community or sector, broad ENSO context should be paired with forecasts and information for that place and time.
Quick Recap
What to remember
- El Niño begins with coupled ocean–atmosphere changes in the tropical Pacific; shifted tropical rainfall and circulation can affect jet streams and weather patterns far away.
- Typical effects are regional and seasonal: rainfall can increase in some places and decrease in others, while temperature patterns also vary.
- Historical associations and climate outlook probabilities describe tendencies, not guaranteed local weather.
- The September 2026 WMO outlook was a forecast of persistence and event strength. It should not be presented as a verified outcome or a forecast of local impacts.
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