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Data-center growth is reorganizing industrial real-estate decisions chiefly through electricity. In major data-center markets, a connection for a large new load can take four years or longer, with JLL reporting an average approaching five years. Developers therefore compete for sites that already have a credible path to power, suitable transmission and substations, permits, and enough land for expansion.
That competition can affect logistics and warehouse projects in the same locality, but the available market evidence does not show that data centers are broadly replacing warehouses. The outcome is local: a parcel with scarce grid capacity may become more valuable for a data-center campus, while a logistics site may still win when freight access, labor, customer proximity, operating cost, and entitlement speed matter more.
What is changing in industrial real estate
Data-center demand has made power access and connection timing central real-estate variables. Traditional logistics site selection emphasized highways, intermodal terminals, labor, taxes, customer density, and building economics. Those factors still matter, but a site that cannot obtain dependable electricity on a usable schedule may not support either a high-density computing campus or a modern warehouse with substantial automation and refrigeration.
The shift is visible in data-center market statistics. CBRE reported 2,497.6 megawatts (MW) of net absorption across eight primary North American markets in 2025, 38% above 1,809.5 MW in 2024. Year-end capacity reached 9,432 MW, up 36% year over year, while vacancy was only 1.4%. Average data-center asking lease rates reached $194.95 per kilowatt per month, a 6.5% annual increase. These are data-center figures, not warehouse rents or industrial vacancy measures.
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Supply is also taking longer to deliver. CBRE said capacity under construction in those primary markets declined to 5,994.4 MW at the end of 2025 from 6,350.1 MW at the end of 2024, citing extended permitting, zoning, and power-sourcing timelines. Demand can therefore remain strong even as the construction pipeline contracts.
The numbers in context
| Measure | Reported value | Scope and date |
|---|---|---|
| Net data-center absorption | 2,497.6 MW | Eight primary North American markets, 2025 |
| Year-over-year absorption change | 38% increase from 1,809.5 MW | 2025 compared with 2024, same markets |
| Year-end data-center capacity | 9,432 MW | Eight primary North American markets, year-end 2025 |
| Year-end data-center vacancy | 1.4% | Eight primary North American markets, year-end 2025 |
| Average data-center lease rate | $194.95 per kW per month | North America, 6.5% higher year over year, 2025 |
| Capacity under construction | 5,994.4 MW | Year-end 2025, down from 6,350.1 MW at year-end 2024 |
Are data centers taking land away from warehouses?
They can compete for land and infrastructure in particular places, but the evidence does not quantify direct warehouse displacement. A data-center campus may seek a large, contiguous parcel near transmission, substations, fiber routes, water or cooling resources, and roads capable of supporting construction. A logistics developer may seek some of the same attributes, especially a permitted industrial parcel near a highway or freight node. When a utility has limited capacity or an industrial park has only a few entitled sites, bids from different users can affect land prices, timing, or allocation.
That is a local competition story, not a nationwide replacement trend. CBRE’s market reports describe tight supply in established hubs and developers moving outward when core locations lack land or power. They do not establish how many warehouses were converted to data centers, how many logistics projects were cancelled because of data centers, or a national percentage of industrial land redirected to computing.
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Why electricity now drives site selection
Connection schedules can determine project feasibility
JLL reports that grid connections for large new loads in major data-center markets are approaching five years on average. Its North America year-end 2025 release describes average connection timelines of four years or longer. These statements use different wording and reporting contexts; both indicate that a developer must secure capacity years before a building is ready for occupancy.
For an industrial owner, the implication is broader than a data-center queue. A warehouse adding automated storage, robotics, electric vehicle charging, refrigeration, or manufacturing equipment may need a larger service than the original building was designed to receive. A site with a nominal utility connection is not necessarily a site with spare capacity, a funded substation upgrade, or a firm energization date.
Power prices affect operating economics
Industrial properties are exposed to the same changing electricity market. BloombergNEF, as reported by JLL Research in 2026, found that industrial power prices across six major markets rose approximately 18% between 2019 and 2024, compared with 4% growth during the preceding five-year period. This is a six-market comparison, not a universal industrial power-price index.
Higher or more volatile electricity costs can alter which warehouse locations work for cold storage, automated fulfillment, battery charging, advanced manufacturing, and other intensive uses. Two buildings with similar rents can have different total occupancy costs once demand charges, reliability, backup generation, efficiency, and interconnection expenses are included.
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Reliability and infrastructure are separate from headline capacity
A utility’s statement that capacity is available does not answer every development question. The project team still needs to understand redundancy, voltage, substation configuration, transmission constraints, outage history, curtailment provisions, backup-generation rules, and the schedule for upgrades. Data-center developers often require multiple power paths and extensive backup systems; logistics occupiers may accept a different reliability and redundancy profile. Comparing sites on megawatts alone can hide a material operational difference.
Where development is moving
New data-center construction is spreading beyond traditional hubs. JLL reported that 64% of a 35 GW North American construction pipeline extended beyond mature markets. The same release linked expansion to the need to secure capacity in advance and to explore locations with more available power.
CBRE identified growing interest in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan because of land, permitting, or potential power access. Its Q1 2025 global report described strong absorption in Northern Virginia, Atlanta, and Phoenix, power-procurement challenges in Chicago, and power-related expansion west of Chicago. These examples show why a single national narrative is misleading: one market may be constrained by land, another by interconnection, and another by the ability to obtain approvals.
The 64% figure describes the geography of a data-center construction pipeline. It is not a measure of warehouse demand, industrial vacancy, or logistics migration. A new data-center cluster may bring transmission investment, contractors, and tax revenue that improve an area’s industrial prospects; it may also intensify competition for entitled land, water, roads, or skilled workers. The net effect has to be assessed market by market.
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How logistics and industrial investors should compare sites
A practical comparison should treat electricity as one axis in a wider operating model. The following questions help distinguish a genuinely usable site from one that merely appears inexpensive.
1. Electrical capacity and connection schedule
- What firm capacity is available today, and at what voltage?
- What utility studies, transmission work, substation additions, or customer-funded upgrades are required?
- Is the energization date contractual, indicative, or dependent on approvals?
- Can the service support the planned building, automation, refrigeration, charging, and future expansion simultaneously?
2. Land and entitlement
- Is the parcel contiguous, appropriately zoned, and large enough for truck courts, stormwater, substations, and expansion?
- Are data-center, warehouse, manufacturing, or mixed industrial uses allowed by right?
- What environmental, water, noise, height, generator, and traffic conditions could delay approval?
- Would a competing user receive priority because it has already secured an interconnection position or entitlement?
3. Freight, workforce, and customer access
- How quickly can trucks reach interstate highways, ports, rail terminals, and regional customers?
- Is there a sufficient labor pool for drivers, warehouse associates, technicians, maintenance, and supervisors?
- Will data-center construction draw contractors or electrical specialists away from logistics projects?
- Can the road network handle peak truck movements without costly widening?
4. Electricity cost and reliability
- What tariff, demand charges, renewable requirements, and escalation assumptions apply?
- How often have comparable customers experienced outages, voltage events, or curtailment?
- What backup generation, battery storage, or efficiency investment is required?
- Can the operating model tolerate a long outage, and who pays for resilience improvements?
5. Permitting and construction delivery
- Which approvals are on the critical path: zoning, building, environmental, utility, road, water, or air permits?
- Are transformers, switchgear, generators, cooling equipment, and other long-lead items available on the construction schedule?
- Does the local authority have experience reviewing the proposed use?
- What happens to carrying costs if the grid or permit date slips by a year?
A step-by-step method for evaluating a contested industrial market
- Define the load profile. Convert the building’s equipment list into connected load, peak demand, voltage, operating hours, and expansion requirements. Include automation, refrigeration, charging, and tenant-specific machinery rather than relying on a generic warehouse assumption.
- Obtain written utility information. Request available capacity, required studies, upgrade scope, cost responsibility, queue position, and the best current energization date. Record whether each item is firm or subject to change.
- Map competing demand. Identify announced data centers, manufacturing projects, large warehouses, and public infrastructure work drawing on the same substations or transmission corridors. A competing project is relevant only if it shares the constrained asset or approval path.
- Screen entitlement before negotiating land. Confirm permitted uses, height and noise limits, generator rules, water constraints, truck routes, and community-review requirements. A low land price cannot compensate for an unusable entitlement.
- Model total occupancy cost. Combine rent or land cost with electricity, demand charges, utility upgrades, backup systems, taxes, road work, delay carrying costs, and likely expansion costs. Compare scenarios rather than a single optimistic date.
- Stress-test the schedule. Run cases for a delayed interconnection, higher power prices, a permit appeal, and a change in tenant load. Keep a fallback site or phased operating plan if the project is sensitive to one connection date.
- Recheck assumptions before commitment. Utilities, municipalities, and developers can update capacity and timing as other projects enter or leave the queue. Refresh the analysis at each land, design, financing, and lease milestone.
Likely outcomes for different industrial users
Existing warehouses with modest electrical needs
A conventional distribution building with limited automation may feel little direct pressure from data-center demand if its utility service is adequate and its freight location is strong. Its main exposure may be higher local land values, competition for contractors, or rising electricity costs rather than conversion to a data center.
Automated fulfillment and cold storage
These users can face a more consequential power trade-off. Robotics, refrigeration, and charging increase peak demand, so an apparently available building may require upgrades and a longer utility schedule. A site farther from a traditional logistics hub can become competitive if it has a faster, more certain path to power while still meeting customer and labor requirements.
New industrial parks
Park developers may need to reserve electrical capacity before all buildings are leased. Allocating a substation or transmission upgrade between data centers, warehouses, and manufacturers becomes a portfolio decision. Clear phasing, utility agreements, and entitlement flexibility can preserve options as tenant demand changes.
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Data-center campuses
For data centers, the fastest path to power can outweigh a lower land price. Pat Lynch of CBRE said on February 26, 2026: “Demand is outpacing supply, while power and supply chain shortages are reinforcing a power-first approach that prioritizes sites with the fastest path to power. Ultimately, unlocking additional supply will depend on power availability timelines, approvals for on-site generation, and greater investment in transmission infrastructure.” The statement describes data-center development pressure; it does not establish a corresponding loss of warehouse stock.
Common analytical mistakes
- Equating pipeline geography with logistics demand. A data-center pipeline outside mature hubs does not prove that warehouses are moving there or leaving another market.
- Calling every industrial parcel interchangeable. Freight access, truck circulation, labor, zoning, cooling, fiber, and power create different site requirements.
- Using a national claim to describe a local conflict. Land or power scarcity in one hub cannot support a nationwide displacement conclusion.
- Treating a utility estimate as a guaranteed date. Interconnection timing can depend on studies, equipment, permits, transmission work, and other queued projects.
- Comparing rents without operating costs. The reported $194.95 per kW per month is a data-center lease-rate measure, not a benchmark for warehouse rent. Industrial electricity costs, demand charges, resilience, and upgrades can change the logistics calculation.
- Ignoring the cost of delay. A site with cheap land but a multi-year connection or entitlement risk may be more expensive than a higher-priced site that can open on schedule.
What the evidence supports
Data-center demand is changing industrial real estate by making power, interconnection timing, and infrastructure delivery decisive in more site searches. Data-center absorption, capacity, and lease rates remain strong in major North American markets, while permitting and power constraints limit how quickly new supply arrives. Developers are extending beyond mature hubs when land or electricity is easier to secure.
For logistics and other industrial users, the effect is an intensified local trade-off rather than a proven national takeover of warehouse land. Industrial power prices in six major markets rose approximately 18% from 2019 to 2024, and projects with growing electrical loads must now test both utility economics and connection schedules. The right response is disciplined, site-specific analysis: verify the power path, entitlement, freight network, workforce, reliability, and full operating cost before deciding which use a parcel can support.
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