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Climate change does not create El Niño, but it raises the temperature baseline and changes the atmosphere in which El Niño occurs. That combination can make heat more dangerous and amplify rainfall variability, increasing the chance of severe floods in some places and drought in others. The IPCC projects stronger ENSO-related rainfall variability later this century, while evidence that human warming has definitively strengthened El Niño itself remains limited.
What El Niño is—and what it is not
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring pattern centered on the tropical Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño event, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average and the trade winds weaken. Those ocean and atmospheric changes shift where heat and tropical rainfall are concentrated, altering seasonal weather patterns around the world.
ENSO is natural climate variability. It operates on seasonal to year-to-year timescales and is one of the major drivers of variations in global weather. Its effects are not uniform: the same event can bring unusually heavy rain and flooding to one region while increasing drought or heat risk elsewhere. El Niño generally gives global average temperature a temporary upward push; La Niña tends to provide a temporary cooling influence. The strongest global temperature response can occur two to three months after the event’s peak.
That natural variability is superimposed on a long-term trend caused primarily by human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Separating the two is essential. Saying that climate change makes El Niño impacts more consequential is supported by climate assessments; saying that climate change caused every El Niño or has permanently made every event stronger is not.
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Why a warmer baseline makes El Niño heat worse
El Niño adds a temporary pulse to an already warmer climate
Greenhouse gases have raised the long-term average temperature of the atmosphere, land and ocean. When an El Niño event then releases and redistributes additional heat from the tropical Pacific, temperatures start from a higher baseline. A heat anomaly of the same size therefore reaches higher absolute temperatures than it would have decades ago.
This matters for health, electricity demand, crop stress, wildfire conditions and infrastructure. A location does not need a record-breaking El Niño anomaly to cross a dangerous heat threshold; background warming can turn a formerly unusual combination into a more frequent one. Night-time temperatures also begin from a higher level, reducing the recovery period for people, animals and ecosystems.
Recent global records illustrate the combination
The World Meteorological Organization’s State of the Global Climate 2024, published in 2025, reported a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 average. It said 2024 was likely the first calendar year above 1.5 °C relative to that pre-industrial reference period. The report attributed the record warmth to record greenhouse-gas concentrations combined with El Niño and other factors—not to El Niño alone.
The event preceding that year was exceptionally warm by historical standards. The WMO reported an Oceanic Niño Index value of 2.0 for November 2023–January 2024, describing it as the highest peak since 2015–16 and the fifth highest since 1950. That statistic describes the event’s measured intensity; it does not quantify how much of the associated global temperature record was caused by human activity.
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How warming can intensify rainfall and drought impacts
A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor
As air warms, its capacity to contain water vapor increases. When moisture is available, storms can release more rain in a short period, raising flash-flood and river-flood risk. At the same time, faster evaporation can dry soils and vegetation between storms or during a circulation-driven dry season. The result is a more volatile water cycle rather than a universal shift toward wetter conditions.
ENSO moves the areas of rising and sinking air
El Niño changes tropical convection—the process by which warm, moist air rises, forms clouds and produces rain. The associated circulation shifts can suppress rainfall in some regions and enhance it in others. Climate change acts on top of that pattern by increasing the amount of moisture available to storms and increasing evaporative demand during dry periods.
The practical consequence is greater potential for compound extremes: a very wet episode can cause flooding while a later or nearby dry spell increases water scarcity, heat and fire danger. Whether a specific place experiences that sequence depends on the event’s strength and timing, seasonal circulation and other weather systems.
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The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report’s Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (2021) assesses that rainfall variability associated with ENSO is projected to be amplified in the second half of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. “Amplified variability” means a wider range of possible wet and dry outcomes, including a greater potential for extreme rainfall in places where El Niño already favors rain and more severe deficits where it favors dryness.
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This is a climate-model projection across many decades, not a promise that every El Niño will be wetter or that every region will receive more rain. It also does not establish a uniform increase in El Niño frequency, duration or strength. Local outcomes remain dependent on geography, season, the timing of ocean warming and other atmospheric patterns.
| Question | What the evidence supports | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Will ENSO-related rainfall become more variable? | The IPCC projects amplified ENSO-related rainfall variability in the latter half of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. | It does not mean every location becomes wetter or that every event produces a new local record. |
| Will El Niño itself become stronger? | IPCC AR6 reports medium confidence that ENSO amplitude and the frequency of high-magnitude events since 1950 were greater than during the pre-industrial period. | The comparison alone is not proof that human-caused warming produced the difference. |
| Will heat increase during El Niño? | El Niño’s temporary warming influence is added to a greenhouse-gas-warmed baseline. | El Niño is not the cause of the long-term warming trend. |
Regional effects: why there is no single “more rain” answer
ENSO teleconnections are historical tendencies, not guarantees. The WMO’s 2024 climate report describes dry conditions in northern South America and Southern Africa as characteristic of El Niño, but stresses that impacts vary with event strength, timing and other meteorological factors. A seasonal outlook for the specific country or watershed is more useful than a global rule.
| Region or setting | Common El Niño tendency | How climate change changes the risk | Evidence scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern South America | Often drier conditions during characteristic El Niño seasons. | Higher temperatures and evaporative demand can worsen soil-moisture loss and heat stress when rain is suppressed. | Historical ENSO association; local results vary. |
| Southern Africa | Often drier conditions during characteristic El Niño seasons. | Warmer air and soils can increase agricultural and water-supply stress during rainfall deficits. | Historical ENSO association; not a deterministic forecast. |
| Areas where El Niño shifts storms overhead | Potentially wetter seasons, including heavy-rain episodes. | A warmer, moister atmosphere can increase rainfall intensity and flood exposure. | Climate-model projection concerns variability, not a uniform local increase. |
| Urban and coastal catchments | Outcome depends on the local teleconnection and season. | High rainfall rates can overwhelm drainage; heat can increase energy demand at the same time. | Requires regional forecasts and hazard information. |
Use four questions for a local interpretation
- Which season is affected? The same El Niño can have opposite effects in different seasons.
- Does the local historical pattern favor wet or dry conditions? Treat this as a tendency, not a guarantee.
- How high is the temperature baseline? A normal El Niño anomaly can still produce dangerous absolute heat in a warmer climate.
- What is the source and time horizon? Distinguish a historical association, a multi-decade model projection and a current seasonal forecast.
Does climate change make El Niño itself stronger?
This question needs a narrower answer than “does climate change make El Niño worse?” IPCC AR6 Chapter 11 reports medium confidence that ENSO amplitude and the frequency of high-magnitude events since 1950 were greater than during the pre-industrial period. However, that finding is a comparison between periods; it is not, by itself, an attribution statement proving that greenhouse-gas emissions caused the difference.
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A careful description is that climate change increases the consequences of El Niño-related extremes while the direction and size of any change in El Niño frequency or amplitude remain an active attribution question.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the current El Niño outlook
In a 3 September 2026 update, the WMO reported that Global Producing Centres expected an exceptionally high likelihood—nearly 100%—that El Niño would persist through February 2027. The same update expected further strengthening toward a very strong intensity before a peak in late 2026. Those numbers are forecasts issued on that date, not an observed confirmation of what later occurred.
Because ENSO forecasts and regional impacts can change as new ocean and atmospheric observations arrive, use the latest WMO update and national or regional meteorological outlook immediately before making a decision. A global ENSO status does not tell a household, utility or city exactly when rain, heat or drought will occur at its location.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo summarized the preparedness implication in the 3 September 2026 statement: “This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response.” The response should be based on local hazard forecasts, not on the headline strength category alone.
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What El Niño information can and cannot tell you
What it can tell you
- Which broad seasonal patterns have historically been associated with the current ENSO phase.
- When to examine heat, rainfall, drought and flood outlooks more closely.
- Why a given season may carry elevated risk even if the forecast is not certain.
- How to plan for several hazards at once, such as heat during a dry spell or flooding after intense rain.
What it cannot tell you by itself
- The exact rainfall total or temperature for a particular town.
- Whether a specific storm, flood or heatwave was caused solely by El Niño.
- That every region will become wetter, drier, hotter or cooler in the same season.
- That a strong event proves climate change has permanently changed ENSO.
Practical preparation for compound heat and rainfall risks
Organizations should combine ENSO information with local forecasts, vulnerability data and infrastructure limits. Heat plans need to account for power demand, indoor temperatures, worker safety and health services. Water managers should examine both a possible reduction in seasonal inflow and the possibility of intense rainfall that produces runoff rather than useful recharge. Cities should check drainage capacity, flood routes, cooling centers and backup power.
For farms and ecosystems, the relevant question is not simply “more rain or less rain?” It is whether rain arrives at the right time, in usable intervals and without destructive intensity. Soil moisture, reservoir levels, planting dates, fire danger and livestock heat stress can all respond differently to the same ENSO event.
Finally, long-term emissions reduction remains important even when an immediate El Niño dominates the news. As WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett said on 3 June 2024, “The end of El Niño does not mean a pause, in long-term climate change as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases.” El Niño fades; the warming baseline does not quickly return to its former level.
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The clearest bottom line
El Niño is a natural Pacific climate pattern, but it now operates in a warmer world. That warmer baseline raises the absolute temperature reached during El Niño, while a warmer atmosphere and ocean can increase the intensity and variability of rainfall and deepen moisture loss during dry periods. The IPCC projects amplified ENSO-related rainfall variability later this century, yet neither that projection nor the observed record proves that human activity has uniformly strengthened every El Niño. For decisions, combine the ENSO phase with up-to-date regional forecasts and prepare for both sides of the water cycle: dangerous heat and intense rain, as well as drought.
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