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To measure an outdoor mural campaign, decide what change it should produce before choosing the wall: awareness, recall, consideration, visits, or incremental sales. Then select locations and creative for the intended audience, and agree in advance how exposed people will be compared with an appropriate control group. A mural’s size or visibility can describe delivery; it does not, by itself, show that the campaign changed behavior.
Start by defining what “worked” means
A campaign cannot have a meaningful success measure until its objective is specific. Brand awareness, ad recall, purchase intent, store visitation, and sales are different outcomes. Each requires its own metric and measurement approach; none should be used as a substitute for another.
For example, an increase in stated purchase intent is not evidence of an increase in purchases. Likewise, counting people who may have encountered a wall does not establish that they noticed the ad, remembered it, or visited a store because of it.
| Objective | Possible primary KPI | Measurement approach and caution |
|---|---|---|
| Awareness or recall | Aided or unaided awareness; ad or message recall | Survey exposed respondents and a suitable comparison group. Report how and when respondents were sampled. A reported impression count is not an awareness measure. |
| Consideration or intent | Brand consideration or purchase intent | Ask exposed and control groups consistent questions. Treat stated intent as an attitude, not a completed purchase. |
| Local action | Store visits, visitation rate, or post-exposure website activity | Specify the exposure model, comparison group, attribution window, and data limitations. A visit after exposure is not automatically a visit caused by the ad. |
| Sales | Incremental sales or sales lift | Use a sales-effect study that describes the brand, period, audience, and method. Avoid inferring sales impact from awareness or visitation alone. |
Choose one primary KPI and, if useful, a small number of secondary measures. This keeps the campaign decision anchored to the business outcome rather than whichever number looks strongest after the flight.
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Match the audience, location, and intended action
Build the site plan around where the intended audience is and what you want them to do. Candidate areas might be neighborhoods, travel routes, retail catchments, or destinations, but the relevant geography depends on the objective. A wall intended to support nearby store traffic calls for a different location rationale than one meant to reach a broad audience for brand awareness.
The Out of Home Advertising Association of America’s 2020 Janovic Paint & Home Decorating Stores case illustrates this logic: the campaign selected out-of-home (OOH) placements in neighborhoods near nine Manhattan stores and used audience and proximity targeting to reach homeowners and people interested in renovation. Its placements were digital bus shelters, not painted murals, so the case offers an example of geographic planning rather than a mural performance benchmark.
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For each proposed site, document why it fits the campaign. Consider whether the audience is relevant, whether the place is close or connected to the intended action, and whether the wall can be seen in its actual surroundings. Also record the campaign’s coverage and the opportunity for people to encounter it. The available cases do not establish a universal site-scoring formula; a vendor’s score should therefore be treated as a planning aid, not an industry-wide standard.
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Design creative for the wall and its setting
A mural is a physical, locally situated format. The creative should communicate at a glance, make the brand recognizable, and make sense at the particular site. Consider how the composition will read from the relevant viewing positions and how its message relates to the surrounding place. These are practical planning questions, not proven rules that guarantee a measured lift.
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Published examples show how local context can inform execution. Janovic partnered with a local New York City artist for its OOH campaign. Colossal Media describes GoPuff mural compositions tailored to different occasions. These examples support artist collaboration and location-aware creative as options to consider; they do not isolate either feature as the cause of a campaign result.
Agree on the flight and measurement before launch
Measurement choices affect what can credibly be concluded, so settle the design with the media vendor and research provider before the campaign runs. Confirm the campaign dates and markets, which placements count as exposure, how the comparison group will be selected, what baseline is available, and when outcomes will be measured.
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- Specify the exposure definition. Ask how a person or device is classified as exposed, which locations or time periods count, and what assumptions the model uses.
- Choose a comparison group. For lift analysis, determine how unexposed people or areas will be selected and whether they are sufficiently comparable to the exposed group. Record how matching is done.
- Set the measurement window. For a survey, define when it will be fielded relative to exposure. For visits, state the lookback period and what counts as a qualifying visit. For sales, define the sales period and study method.
- Confirm available data and privacy limits. Ask what data are collected, what can be reported, and which privacy or access restrictions apply in the relevant geography. Availability can vary by provider and location; the cited cases do not establish a universal legal or technical standard.
- Record the plan. Save the KPI definitions, exposure and control rules, campaign dates, and analysis window before launch. This gives the final report a clear standard to evaluate against.
MFour describes methods including geolocation-based exposure modeling, intercept surveys, matched exposed and control groups, and attribution modeling. OAAA’s Janovic case reports pre-campaign and in-campaign measurement as well as reach and frequency reporting. These approaches serve different questions: reach and frequency describe delivery, while a comparison design is needed to estimate whether outcomes differ between exposed and control groups.
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The figures below are campaign-specific reports, not forecasts for a new mural. The cases use different formats, populations, and study designs; their percentages should not be ranked as though they measured the same thing.
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| Campaign and source | Reported result | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| GoPuff, described by Colossal Media | An 11-wall campaign; Colossal reports a 30% lift in brand awareness and a 20% lift in positive brand sentiment, purchase intent, and likelihood to recommend. It also says the mural walls exceeded other ad formats in brand-awareness lift by 8% and purchase intent by 14%. | The page describes a custom accretive study but does not provide full sample or analysis details. The figures are Colossal’s account of this campaign, not a guaranteed outcome for other advertisers. |
| Janovic Paint & Home Decorating Stores, OAAA, 2020 campaign | A 35% increase in visitation rate; more than 2,000 additional website visitations associated with mobile geofencing. | The campaign used digital bus shelters in two New York City flights, with exposed/unexposed and pre/in-campaign measurement. It is broader OOH, not a painted mural campaign. |
| The Heel Inc, Lamar Advertising, 2023 campaign | 58,465 devices tracked. | Lamar describes a 14-day lookback and an exposed-versus-unexposed comparison for store and website visitation. The case text reviewed does not provide a numerical lift. |
| Beverage brand, Clear Channel Outdoor and Circana/NCS case | A 0.84% sales increase and $11 million in additional sales. | The case concerns a DOOH campaign and sales-effect measurement; the publication year is not stated on the page reviewed. It is not a mural-specific result. |
| eBay digital-transit example, MFour 2025 white paper | A 60% increase in unaided brand awareness, 79% ad recall within 24 hours, and a 28% lift in purchase intent. | These are provider-published transit OOH examples, not independent mural benchmarks. |
There is no single representative industry-wide mural effectiveness statistic established by these examples. A percentage from one campaign may also describe a relative lift rather than a percentage-point change; unless the source specifies the basis, do not silently convert one into the other.
How to read a lift and report the result
A lift is meaningful only alongside its definition and comparison. A sound report identifies the outcome being compared, the exposed and control populations, how exposure was assigned, the time period, and the method used. If those details are missing, describe the figure as a result reported by the named source rather than as proof that the mural caused the change.
For a final campaign report, include:
- The objective and primary KPI, with the precise metric definition.
- Campaign dates, markets, placements, format, and relevant creative variations.
- The study population and the definitions of exposed and comparison groups.
- The survey timing or attribution/lookback period, as applicable.
- The measured outcome and the source of the analysis.
- Known study limitations, including missing methodological detail or limits on data access.
Keep outcome types separate in the readout. Awareness or recall percentages, visit rates, and sales changes answer different questions and should not be collapsed into a single “impact” number. If a vendor supplies delivery measures alongside outcome measures, label them distinctly so readers can see what was observed and what was estimated.
Use the result to make the next decision
Interpret the result against the objective fixed before launch. If awareness was the goal, use the awareness measure and its comparison design to decide whether the creative or placement strategy merits another test. If local visits were the goal, assess visitation under the stated attribution window and consider whether the locations connect logically to the intended destination. If sales were the goal, rely on the sales-effect analysis rather than treating visits or intent as a proxy.
When choosing among future campaign options, compare audience fit, proximity to the desired action, format and creative flexibility, timing and exposure opportunity, and the quality of the proposed measurement and comparison group. The published examples illustrate these decision factors, but they do not rank mural vendors against one another or establish which option will perform best for a particular brand.
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