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Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum is quantum-resistant today, and neither has completed a post-quantum transition. A sufficiently capable quantum computer could use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from exposed elliptic-curve public keys. Bitcoin’s UTXO design can hide some keys until an output is spent; Ethereum accounts that have sent transactions expose their public keys onchain. That difference affects exposure, but it does not make either network categorically safe or establish that one is more vulnerable overall.
What quantum computing could put at risk
The central concern is digital signatures, not that quantum computers can simply “break blockchains.” Bitcoin transaction spending relies on ECDSA and Schnorr signatures; Ethereum account transactions use ECDSA, and its validators use BLS signatures. These schemes depend on elliptic-curve cryptography. If a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes available, Shor’s algorithm could use a known public key to calculate the corresponding private key. An attacker who obtained that key could then create a valid signature and attempt to spend assets or impersonate the account.
This risk depends on the public key being available to attack and on the attacker having a quantum computer powerful enough to perform the calculation in time to matter. It is not the same as a general attack on every part of either network. For example, the signature risk should not be described as if Bitcoin’s mining hash function were vulnerable to the same Shor attack. Ethereum has additional cryptographic components to assess, including validator signatures, data-availability commitments, and some zero-knowledge proof systems.
Google Quantum AI researchers Ryan Babbush and Hartmut Neven wrote on 2026-03-31 that future quantum computers may break elliptic-curve cryptography with fewer qubits and gates than previously realized. That finding concerns revised resource estimates; it is not evidence that a machine capable of stealing cryptocurrency exists today. The Ethereum Foundation’s Post-Quantum team said in 2026, “We do not believe a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is imminent.” That is the team’s assessment, not a guarantee or a date for when the risk will arrive.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum expose public keys differently
| Question | Bitcoin | Ethereum |
|---|---|---|
| How users authorize transactions | UTXO spends use ECDSA or Schnorr signatures. | Account transactions use ECDSA signatures; validator consensus uses BLS signatures. |
| What a receive-only destination reveals | Some output patterns commit to a public-key hash, keeping the key hidden until spending. | A receive-only account address shows an address hash rather than the public key. |
| What happens after spending or sending | A spend reveals the public key, including while the transaction is waiting in the mempool. | After an account sends a transaction, its public key is exposed onchain. |
| Other cryptographic surfaces | This comparison focuses on spending signatures; it does not treat mining hashes as equally exposed to Shor’s algorithm. | Validator BLS signatures, KZG commitments used in the scaling roadmap, and some elliptic-curve-based ZK systems also need consideration. |
| Publicly described preparation | BIP 360 and BIP 361 are proposals in the sources reviewed; they address different parts of mitigation and migration. | The Ethereum Foundation has a dedicated Post-Quantum team and a directional roadmap spanning consensus, data, and execution. |
Bitcoin’s UTXO model can reduce some at-rest exposure
Bitcoin tracks unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), rather than keeping one persistent account balance for each user. Some output types commit to a public-key hash. When a user receives bitcoin to a fresh output of this kind, the public key itself need not appear onchain until the output is spent. That can reduce the time an attacker has to target the key while it remains at rest.
The benefit is conditional, not universal. Reusing an address can leave a key visible after an earlier spend, and some output types reveal key material in a different way. Spending also exposes the public key: before a transaction is confirmed, it can be visible in the mempool. Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) 360 describes attacks on keys exposed longer than this unconfirmed interval as long-exposure attacks, and attempts made during the mempool interval as short-exposure attacks. A short window is not the same as no exposure, especially if an attacker could act quickly enough.
BIP 361 estimates that more than 34% of all bitcoin had revealed a public key onchain as of 2026-03-01. This is the proposal’s estimate, tied to that date; it is not an independently validated live measurement, and it should not be read as a direct estimate of how much bitcoin a quantum attacker could steal. Public-key visibility is one condition in a broader attack, not proof that a capable attacker exists or that every exposed coin is accessible.
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Ethereum uses persistent accounts: an account’s state remains associated with its address as transactions occur. An account that has only received ether reveals an address hash, according to Ethereum.org’s explanation. Once it sends a transaction, however, its public key is exposed onchain. This makes public-key exposure a more routine feature of active Ethereum accounts than of Bitcoin outputs that keep a key hidden until spending.
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That distinction matters for the period during which an attacker could target an exposed key, but it does not by itself establish a complete risk ranking between the chains. Bitcoin has its own exposed outputs and mempool window; Ethereum has account-level migration options under discussion and cryptographic surfaces beyond ordinary account transactions. The networks also differ in how funds, scripts, validators, and applications use cryptography. A public-key exposure comparison is useful, but it is not a measure of total network security or investment safety.
What Bitcoin’s proposals would change
BIP 360: a proposed output type without the key-path spend
BIP 360 proposes Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), a script-tree output type modeled on P2TR but with the quantum-vulnerable key-path spend removed. Its purpose is to mitigate a class of exposure associated with key-path spending. It is not a replacement of Bitcoin’s signature system with post-quantum signatures, and a proposal for a new output type does not mean wallets and nodes already support it.
For users, the practical distinction is between changing how future outputs are constructed and replacing the cryptographic authorization rules used across the network. P2MR addresses the former kind of problem. A full post-quantum transition would require protocol support for new signature methods as well as adoption by wallets, services, and users.
BIP 361: a proposed migration and signature sunset
BIP 361 describes a broader migration approach. It proposes a permitted-spend phase after activation, followed by a later tightening of ECDSA and Schnorr verification. The proposal expresses its phases relative to activation; it does not establish a live network schedule or an adopted deadline. It also raises difficult coordination questions, particularly how to handle legacy UTXOs, dormant funds, and coins whose owners cannot or will not migrate.
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These proposals are not interchangeable. BIP 360 focuses on an output design that removes a vulnerable key-path option; BIP 361 addresses a phased migration and eventual restriction of existing signature verification. Both remain proposals in the materials reviewed. Neither should be described as a completed Bitcoin upgrade or as proof that Bitcoin is quantum-resistant.
How Ethereum is preparing across the protocol
The Ethereum Foundation’s Post-Quantum team describes a work program that reaches beyond account signatures. It includes research into hash-based validator signatures such as leanXMSS, a minimal zkVM/leanVM approach to aggregation, post-quantum data availability and blobs, execution-layer signature precompiles, and longer-term changes to post-quantum transactions and consensus.
At the account level, the Foundation’s materials point to account abstraction and signature agility as routes for accounts to move to post-quantum signatures. In practical terms, these approaches aim to make it possible for an account’s authorization method to change without relying indefinitely on the current signature scheme. They do not mean that every existing account can migrate automatically or that a specific user-facing migration flow is already deployed.
Smart contracts may need separate upgrades if they depend on cryptographic primitives that are vulnerable to quantum attacks. That creates a broader migration task than changing a wallet’s transaction signature: developers may need to identify what cryptography a contract uses, decide how to replace it, and coordinate changes without breaking the contract’s intended behavior.
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The Foundation calls its roadmap a living document reflecting rough directional consensus. It spans consensus, data, and execution, but its milestones are not guaranteed delivery dates. Research, governance, and implementation constraints can change the plan. The existence of a more structured public work program does not mean Ethereum has completed its transition or is already protected.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why a post-quantum transition is difficult
Replacing a signature algorithm affects more than the line of code that verifies a transaction. Protocols need a secure replacement; wallets and other software need to create and verify the new signatures; and users or applications may need to move from old authorization methods to new ones. A transition also has to account for assets that have been inactive for years, owners who have lost access, and users who do not update promptly. A rule that protects migrated assets but strands unmigrated ones presents a difficult governance and recovery choice.
Post-quantum cryptography has engineering trade-offs. Post-quantum signatures may be larger and less amenable to aggregation than current signatures, affecting bandwidth, storage, or verification design. Ethereum’s roadmap therefore has to consider validator signature replacement and aggregation as well as user transactions. On Bitcoin, a broader migration must account for the adoption of new output and signature support across wallets and nodes, alongside exposed legacy outputs.
Standards are available, but standards alone do not change a blockchain. NIST lists FIPS 203, a key-encapsulation standard; FIPS 204, a module-lattice digital-signature standard; and FIPS 205, a stateless hash-based digital-signature standard, as finalized on 2024-08-13. These provide standardized post-quantum cryptographic building blocks. Each network still has to decide which methods fit its protocol, implement and test the changes, and coordinate deployment. The Ethereum Foundation says no blockchain has completed a full post-quantum transition.
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Is Bitcoin more vulnerable than Ethereum?
There is no well-supported one-word winner in this comparison. Bitcoin’s UTXO model can keep some public keys hidden at rest, provided users avoid practices and output types that expose them. Ethereum’s active accounts generally reveal their public key after sending a transaction, but Ethereum’s preparation work explicitly spans account migration and several protocol layers. Bitcoin’s proposals also cover distinct mitigations, but they have not been deployed as a full post-quantum migration.
It is more accurate to compare specific exposures than to declare one chain quantum-safe or the other uniquely doomed. For a user, the relevant questions include whether a public key has been revealed, what the network’s migration path eventually requires, and whether a wallet or application supports the eventual changes. For protocol designers, the challenge includes consensus signatures, data structures, application cryptography, and governance—not just the signature on an ordinary transaction.
What users should do now
- Do not move assets solely because of speculative Q-Day forecasts. The evidence does not establish a dependable arrival date for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, and the reviewed proposals do not create a current emergency migration schedule.
- Use good key hygiene where the protocol allows it. On Bitcoin, avoid address reuse where applicable and prefer fresh receiving outputs. This can reduce some at-rest public-key exposure, but it does not change the network’s underlying signature rules or eliminate exposure when spending.
- Watch for official migration instructions, not product claims. A wallet purchase or device change cannot alter a blockchain’s cryptographic rules. If a network adopts migration steps, follow instructions from the relevant protocol and wallet developers and verify that the software you use supports them.
- Do not infer investment safety from this technical comparison. Quantum preparedness describes cryptographic design and migration status, not which asset is a safer investment.
What the evidence does—and does not—say about timing
There is no dependable Q-Day date in the cited material. BIP 361 mentions arrival estimates of 2027–2030 while attributing them to a secondary McKinsey source; that range is not a consensus forecast and should not be treated as a reliable prediction. Google’s 2026 work indicates that resource estimates can move, which supports taking preparation seriously but cannot establish a year when an attack will be practical.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesThe sound planning conclusion is narrower: cryptographic transitions take engineering and coordination, so work should proceed before a capable quantum computer is available. That is a reason to develop and adopt migration paths, not evidence that users need to panic or move funds immediately.
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