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Attacks near a shipping lane can delay cargo and raise costs even when a vessel is never struck: carriers may divert to avoid a risk area, insurers may change or withdraw cover, and longer voyages tie up ships and containers. The resulting freight-rate effect depends on the route, timing, insurance terms, contracts and wider market conditions—not on a single universal surcharge.
How an attack can affect a shipment that was never hit
The commercial effect usually travels through a chain of decisions. A shipowner or carrier assesses the safety and commercial viability of a route. If it considers a transit too risky, it may send the vessel by a longer route instead. That adds sailing time and fuel expense, delays the arrival of cargo, and keeps the ship and its containers away from their next scheduled voyages for longer. Separately, insurers may charge more for war-risk cover, impose conditions, or decline to cover a planned transit. Carriers, charterers and cargo interests then have to determine who bears the added costs under their contracts.
These effects are related, but not interchangeable. A longer voyage is an operational delay; an insurance premium is a cost of transferring risk; and a higher freight rate is a market price that can reflect several pressures at once. An attack can contribute to all three without being the sole cause of any particular delay or rate change.
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Vessels using the Suez Canal and Red Sea avoid the longer passage around southern Africa. When operators decide not to transit the risk area, they may route around the Cape of Good Hope instead. That changes the vessel’s voyage plan, not just the path on a map: it can add days at sea and affect the timing of later sailings and port calls.
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On 4 January 2024, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said at least 18 shipping companies had decided to reroute vessels around South Africa, adding 10 days to the journey. That figure describes an early-crisis snapshot, not a standard delay for every carrier, voyage or current shipment. A shipper should use the carrier’s current route and transit estimate for the relevant service rather than apply those 10 days as a blanket allowance.
For a specific booking, ask whether the quoted schedule assumes a Suez transit or a diversion, and whether the carrier can change the route after booking. Compare the estimated arrival date and service frequency as well as the time at sea: a missed connection or a changed port call may affect the delivery plan differently from the sailing-time increase alone.
How a longer route can affect freight costs
A diverted ship spends longer completing a round trip. That can reduce the effective capacity available to the market: the ship and its containers return later and cannot be redeployed as soon. The extra distance also raises operating expenses, including fuel. These mechanisms can put upward pressure on freight rates, particularly when capacity is tight, but a route disruption does not translate into one fixed increase for every shipment.
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UNCTAD’s 2024 review reported that by mid-2024 the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index had more than doubled from late 2023. UNCTAD identified longer routes, higher fuel consumption and rising insurance premiums among the drivers. This was a dated index comparison—not a dollar quote, a current rate, or a measurement isolating the attacks’ effect from every other influence.
Freight prices also respond to supply and demand, port congestion, weather, labor conditions and other factors. A rate can rise or fall while a threat remains, because market conditions change; conversely, a route disruption can raise a shipper’s total cost even if the base ocean rate does not move. For budgeting, distinguish the quoted base rate from surcharges and other shipment-specific charges, and compare the full landed cost.
What happens to marine insurance
War-risk insurance is a distinct channel of exposure. For a proposed transit, the insurer may charge an additional premium, require notice or other conditions, limit the cover available, or decline the risk. A carrier’s ability to operate a route therefore depends not only on its own assessment but also on whether suitable cover is available on acceptable terms.
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The effect is not a universal percentage that can be applied to all vessels or cargo. In an account published on 21 August 2026, BIMCO described some ships inside the Gulf as facing substantially higher costs to renew or replace cover, while some could not obtain adequate cover for an intended transit. BIMCO did not publish a general premium schedule. The account concerns the Gulf conditions it describes and should not be treated as a Red Sea premium estimate.
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For a shipment, ask the carrier or broker what cover applies to the intended route, whether the vessel is expected to enter a designated risk area, what exclusions or notice requirements apply, and whether any additional premium is included in the quote or charged separately. A policy’s terms and the particular vessel, cargo, route and insurer matter; a general news report cannot establish what a specific policy will cover.
Who pays for extra premiums, deviation and delay?
There is no one answer for every shipment. Payment and liability can depend on the booking terms, the charter party where applicable, and the governing legal terms. BIMCO identifies issues that may matter in charter arrangements, including deviation, delay, off-hire, redelivery, safe-route obligations, force majeure and allocation of additional war-risk premiums. Those are contract questions, not an automatic rule that the shipper, carrier or charterer always pays.
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Before relying on a quoted rate or delivery date, check the applicable contract for who may change the route, how additional insurance costs are allocated, what happens if a vessel is delayed or diverted, and what notice or documentation is required. If a disruption occurs, preserve the booking confirmation, route notices, invoices and relevant contract terms. For a material claim or disputed allocation, the actual contract and applicable law need to be assessed; a general article cannot determine an individual party’s legal responsibility.
How to compare options for a real shipment
Do not compare two offers only by their base ocean rates. A lower quote can involve a different route, schedule, cover arrangement or allocation of extra costs. Compare the shipment as a whole, and ask for the assumptions behind each quote.
- Confirm the planned route and transit estimate. Ask the carrier whether its schedule assumes passage through Suez and the Red Sea or a diversion, and request the estimated transit time and arrival date for the actual service.
- Check whether the vessel will transit the risk area. Ask what the carrier currently expects and how it will notify customers if its route changes. Do not infer the route from a generic sailing schedule alone.
- Clarify insurance terms. Ask what war-risk cover applies, whether exclusions or notice requirements are relevant, and whether an additional premium is included or may be charged separately. For cargo cover, confirm the terms with the insurer or broker.
- Read the cost-allocation terms. Identify who bears additional premiums, deviation expenses and delay-related charges, and what the contract says about route changes and disruption.
- Compare schedule reliability and frequency. A nominal transit estimate is not the only operational consideration. Check the offered sailing frequency and the consequences if a departure or connection is missed.
- Calculate full landed cost. Include the quoted freight, applicable surcharges, insurance and any other known route-related costs. Keep assumptions visible so that an estimate is not mistaken for a guaranteed final price.
There is no broadly applicable current surcharge or insurance percentage established for all lanes. A useful quote needs to be dated and specific to the route, vessel, cargo, insurer and policy. Carrier and broker information, together with the governing contract, is necessary for a shipment-level decision.
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How to interpret the current incident picture
The threat picture is not a single, continuous event across every nearby sea. As accessed on 11 October 2026, the IMO’s Red Sea page reported 61 confirmed incidents since 10 January 2024, of which 57 fell between 10 January 2024 and 31 December 2025. The page also listed 2026 Secretary-General statements, including one dated 23 July on renewed Red Sea attacks and one dated 12 August concerning a deadly ship attack.
Those are IMO-reported confirmed incidents, not a forecast, a complete measure of commercial risk, or a direct estimate of delay, insurance cost or the probability of a future attack. The 2024 rerouting and freight-index figures above are historical snapshots and should be read with their dates, not as current universal estimates.
The Gulf and Strait of Hormuz developments described by BIMCO are separate from the Red Sea crisis. In its 21 August 2026 account, BIMCO described severe traffic reduction and restricted navigability in the Strait of Hormuz following hostilities in late February 2026. Its account included missile and drone threats among a wider picture that also involved navigation interference and insurance constraints. It does not support describing every reported maritime attack as a drone attack, or treating conditions in the Gulf and Red Sea as identical.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteIn a 24 May 2024 report, IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said: “The maritime industry sustains the supply chains that are the lifeline of nations and populations around the world – innocent seafarers and commercial ships trading essential supplies should be free to navigate, unhindered by geopolitical tensions.” The IMO Maritime Safety Committee described the attacks in that report as “illegal and unjustifiable”; that is the Committee’s characterization, not a separate legal ruling.
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