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Antarctic ice loss raises global mean sea level when ice grounded on bedrock flows or melts into the ocean. Floating sea ice and ice shelves have little direct effect on sea level when they melt, but thinning or losing a shelf can remove support from grounded glaciers and speed their flow into the sea. Copernicus Climate Change Service estimates that Antarctica lost 4,876 ± 530 gigatons of ice from 1979 through 2024, equivalent to 13.5 ± 1.5 millimeters of global mean sea-level rise; those updated figures are preliminary.
Which Antarctic ice changes raise sea level?
The key distinction is whether the ice is grounded on land or already floating. Antarctica’s ice sheet is a vast body of ice resting on bedrock. Where that grounded ice flows into the ocean and is lost, it transfers water from land to the ocean and raises global mean sea level.
Sea ice forms from ocean water, while an ice shelf is a floating extension of the land-based ice sheet. Because floating ice already displaces seawater, its melting does not add an equivalent volume of new water to the ocean. The same basic distinction explains why melting an ice shelf is not equivalent to losing grounded ice. NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO mass-change visualization measures changes in grounded ice, not floating shelf mass. NASA explains the distinction in its Antarctic ice-mass visualization.
Floating shelves still matter to sea-level change indirectly. They can buttress, or hold back, the glaciers that feed them. If a shelf thins or retreats, that restraint can weaken, allowing grounded ice to flow faster into the ocean. NASA links observed mass-loss hotspots and outlet-glacier flow with warming ocean waters around Antarctica.
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So the answer to “Does sea ice melt raise sea level?” is not the same as the answer for grounded Antarctic ice: the melt of floating ice has little direct effect, whereas the loss of grounded ice adds water to the ocean. Changes in floating shelves matter chiefly if they alter the flow of ice that is still grounded.
How Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance works
An ice sheet’s mass balance is the net result of gains and losses over a period of time. Snowfall adds mass. A negative balance means losses exceed snowfall gains; it does not mean that every part of Antarctica is melting at the same rate, or even losing mass in that period. Copernicus describes the balance as the difference between mass gained and lost across the ice sheet.
Processes that add or remove ice
- Snowfall adds mass. Snow accumulates and is gradually compressed into ice. Surface meltwater can percolate into snow or refreeze, so not all melt at the surface becomes water that reaches the ocean.
- Surface runoff removes mass. When meltwater drains off the ice sheet and reaches the ocean, it removes water from the land-based ice system.
- Other surface processes remove mass. Sublimation, evaporation, and wind erosion also contribute to loss from the surface.
- Basal melting removes ice. Melting at the base of grounded ice contributes to mass loss; basal melting of a floating shelf is a different process and does not directly add the same volume to sea level.
- Glacier discharge and calving transfer ice to the ocean. Grounded glaciers and ice streams carry solid ice across the grounding line, where ice leaves its bedrock support; iceberg calving breaks ice from the margin. The sea-level effect depends on whether the ice was grounded before entering the ocean.
The processes interact: snowfall can offset losses in one region or year, while discharge and melting dominate elsewhere. That is why a continent-wide mass-balance figure is a net result, not a map of uniform change.
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How much has Antarctica contributed so far?
Different reported figures answer different questions. A cumulative estimate sums mass change over a stated interval; a rate annualizes change over another interval. They should be quoted with their own date ranges rather than combined into a single supposedly interchangeable trend.
| Estimate | Period and meaning | Source and qualification |
|---|---|---|
| 4,876 ± 530 Gt lost; 13.5 ± 1.5 mm sea-level equivalent | Cumulative Antarctic loss from 1979 through 2024 | Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2026; updated IMBIE values are preliminary and may change when consolidated. |
| 135 Gt per year; 0.4 mm per year | Annualized Antarctic ice loss and sea-level contribution for 2002–2025 | NASA Science’s current GRACE and GRACE-FO Earth Indicator, accessed in 2026. |
| 150 billion metric tons per year | Annualized Antarctic ice loss for 2002–2023 | NASA Science visualization published in 2023 and updated in 2025. |
| 2,670 Gt lost [1,800–3,540]; 7.4 mm [5.0–9.8] | Cumulative Antarctic loss and global mean sea-level equivalent for 1992–2020 | IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, 2021. |
The NASA rates cover different periods: the current Earth Indicator runs through 2025, while the separate visualization covers 2002–2023. Their values are not identical-period estimates and should not be treated as a direct contradiction. The IPCC figure is a historical cumulative estimate with a reported range, not a current annual rate. NASA’s Earth Indicator provides its rolling GRACE and GRACE-FO summary, and NASA’s separate visualization describes the 2002–2023 interval.
For a useful scale conversion, Copernicus gives approximately 360 Gt of ice as equivalent to 1 mm of global mean sea-level change. This is a conversion for comparing ice mass with a global mean, not a prediction of the water level at any particular shore. Copernicus provides the conversion with its ice-sheet indicator.
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Where the losses are concentrated
The 1979–2024 Copernicus breakdown attributes 84% of cumulative Antarctic loss to West Antarctica and a further 17% to the Antarctic Peninsula; East Antarctica remained close to balance overall. These are reported shares, not evidence that every glacier or location within each region changed in the same way. Copernicus identifies Thwaites and Pine Island among West Antarctic glaciers with accelerated thinning, flow, and retreat of the grounding line.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchShort-term gains can occur within a longer-term loss record. Copernicus reports a brief net Antarctic gain in 2022 associated with anomalous snowfall in East Antarctica, followed by preliminary net losses of 56 Gt in 2023 and 82 Gt in 2024. The single-year gain did not reverse the cumulative loss reported across 1979–2024.
NASA’s 2002–2023 visualization likewise shows modest gains in East Antarctica outweighed by losses in West Antarctica, with flow lines converging on outlet glaciers including Pine Island and Thwaites. NASA says this pattern is consistent with other observations indicating that warming ocean water around Antarctica plays a key role in contemporary mass loss. The visualization shows the regional pattern and its observation period.
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How scientists estimate Antarctic mass balance
No single measurement captures every part of the balance. Copernicus says estimates combine satellite observations of changes in ice volume or gravity fields with ice-discharge estimates and regional climate-model estimates of surface mass balance. For discharge, scientists use ice velocity and thickness at the grounding line; surface mass balance estimates account for climate-related gains and losses such as snowfall and surface melt.
Satellite gravity measurements detect changes in the distribution of mass, while measurements of ice volume and movement help identify how the ice sheet is changing and how quickly grounded ice is being carried toward the ocean. Combining these lines of evidence helps distinguish a snowfall-driven change from a change in glacier discharge or other losses. Methods are complex, and the resulting figures are commonly delayed by about a year.
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IMBIE, the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise, reconciles satellite-based estimates using a common framework. The National Snow and Ice Data Center describes it as an international collaboration of more than 80 polar scientists funded by NASA and ESA. NSIDC explains why ice-sheet mass change matters, and IMBIE lists its publications. Copernicus marks its updated 1979–2024 values as preliminary, so the exact cumulative estimate may change as the data are consolidated.
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Why global mean sea-level rise is not a local forecast
A sea-level equivalent translates ice loss into a change in the global mean. It does not say that every coastline will rise by that exact amount. The loss of a large ice sheet changes Earth’s gravity field: sea level can fall close to the losing ice sheet while rising farther away. Local sea level also reflects other factors, so the global mean contribution cannot be read as a site-specific forecast. NSIDC introduces the regional pattern of sea-level response.
This distinction matters when interpreting numbers such as 13.5 mm. That is the Copernicus global mean sea-level equivalent for the stated Antarctic mass loss, not a measurement of water-level change at a specific harbor, island, or coastline. A local assessment needs local sea-level information in addition to the ice-sheet contribution.
What projections say about Antarctica’s future contribution
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report’s 2021 assessment gives likely Antarctic contribution ranges for 2100 under three emissions scenarios. These are scenario-based projections, not measurements of what has already happened:
| IPCC AR6 emissions scenario | Likely Antarctic contribution by 2100 |
|---|---|
| SSP1-2.6 | 0.03–0.27 m |
| SSP2-4.5 | 0.03–0.29 m |
| SSP5-8.5 | 0.03–0.34 m |
The ranges overlap, and the upper end differs by scenario; they should be presented with their scenario labels and likely-range qualification rather than as one certain forecast. The assessment does not make the projected contribution a uniform local rise around the world.
Copernicus estimates that complete melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet would correspond to 57.9 ± 0.9 m of global mean sea-level rise. This is a measure of the amount of ice stored on the continent under a total-melt thought experiment, not a near-term projection. The IPCC’s 2021 Working Group I Chapter 9 presents the assessment and scenario ranges; Copernicus reports the total-melt sea-level equivalent.
How to read an Antarctic ice-loss number
Before comparing two estimates, check what each one measures. The interval, whether the result is cumulative or annualized, the observing and modeling methods, the uncertainty range, and the regions included can all differ. A historical observation and a future scenario projection are also different kinds of evidence.
Quick Recap
- Check the start and end years: a rate through 2025 is not the same interval as one ending in 2023.
- Check whether the figure is cumulative mass change, an annualized mass-loss rate, or a sea-level equivalent.
- Check the source’s uncertainty and data status; a preliminary record can be revised.
- Check whether the claim is about West Antarctica, East Antarctica, the Peninsula, or the continent-wide net result.
- Keep historical estimates separate from scenario-based projections, and do not interpret global mean equivalents as local forecasts.
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