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Higher DRAM and NAND Flash costs can make PCs and smartphones more expensive, but they do not translate dollar-for-dollar into higher checkout prices. Manufacturers can raise prices, accept lower margins, change configurations or favor higher-end models. Gartner forecast higher average device prices in 2026 than in 2025; those are market forecasts, not promises about a particular model, retailer or country.
How does a memory-chip price increase reach the price of a device?
Memory is one part of a device’s bill of materials—the cost of its components before manufacturing, distribution and retail costs. DRAM is working memory that a computer or phone uses while running apps. NAND Flash stores data persistently, including in PC solid-state drives (SSDs) and phone storage. If those components become more expensive, the manufacturer faces higher costs, but the final retail price is still a business decision.
A device maker has several ways to respond. It may pass some of the added cost to buyers, absorb some in its margin, emphasize premium products with more room to absorb costs, or change the capacity offered in a configuration. Retailers and discounts also affect what shoppers actually pay. As a result, a memory-market increase is a source of price pressure—not a formula for calculating the new shelf price.
The change can reach buyers through either a higher price for a comparable configuration or less memory or storage for a similar price. Those are possible responses, not proof that every manufacturer or product line will follow the same approach.
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What do the 2026 forecasts say?
Two kinds of forecast matter here: estimates for component-market prices and estimates for finished-device prices. They measure different things. TrendForce’s component figures below concern contract prices in named memory categories; Gartner’s figures concern forecast average prices or shipments for broad device markets. Neither set is a quote for a particular product at checkout.
| Publisher and date | Measure | Forecast and comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Combined DRAM and SSD prices | Gartner estimated a 130% increase by the end of 2026 compared with 2025. This is a combined component-price estimate, not a forecast that every memory product or finished device will rise by that amount. |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | PC prices | Gartner forecast PC prices to increase 17% in 2026 compared with 2025. |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Smartphone prices | Gartner forecast smartphone prices to increase 13% in 2026 compared with 2025. |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | PC shipments | Gartner forecast worldwide PC shipments to decline 10.4% in 2026 compared with 2025. |
| Gartner, February 26, 2026 | Smartphone shipments | Gartner forecast worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 8.4% in 2026 compared with 2025. |
| TrendForce, February 2, 2026 | Conventional DRAM contract prices | TrendForce forecast a 90–95% quarter-over-quarter increase in 1Q26. It separately projected PC DRAM contract prices to rise by more than 100% quarter over quarter in 1Q26. |
| TrendForce, February 2, 2026 | NAND Flash contract prices | TrendForce forecast a 55–60% quarter-over-quarter increase in 1Q26. |
| TrendForce, March 31, 2026 | Conventional DRAM contract prices | TrendForce forecast a 58–63% quarter-over-quarter increase in 2Q26. |
| TrendForce, March 31, 2026 | NAND Flash contract prices | TrendForce forecast a 70–75% quarter-over-quarter increase in 2Q26. |
| TrendForce, September 30, 2026 | Conventional DRAM contract prices | TrendForce forecast a 10–15% quarter-over-quarter increase in 4Q26. |
| TrendForce, September 30, 2026 | NAND Flash contract prices | TrendForce forecast a 15–20% quarter-over-quarter increase in 4Q26. |
The TrendForce outlooks show why the date and category matter. Its February forecasts called for exceptionally sharp component contract-price increases in the first quarter of 2026, while its September outlook projected more moderate increases in conventional DRAM for the fourth quarter and continuing increases in NAND Flash. Those are forecasts for separate quarters, not a single annual retail-price trajectory. The September outlook still described a market under pressure.
Gartner’s device-price and shipment figures are likewise forecasts for the full year 2026 compared with 2025. They should not be read as observed changes at every store or as an automatic result of any one TrendForce component forecast. A local price can move differently because the model, configuration, retailer, discounts and market are different.
Why could PC buyers notice the pressure?
PCs combine working memory with storage, and product listings often make RAM and SSD capacity easy to compare. That makes configuration a visible way for manufacturers to manage costs: a brand may keep a mainstream model’s starting price attractive while offering less storage, or charge more for a higher-capacity option. TrendForce’s September 30, 2026 outlook specifically said PC brands were reducing SSD capacities in mainstream configurations to curb costs. It also described notebooks reflecting higher component costs and those costs weighing on end-market sales. These observations do not establish a universal change in retail prices or specifications.
Gartner forecast PC prices to increase 17% in 2026 compared with 2025. It also estimated that PC memory costs could reach 23% of total bill of materials in 2026, compared with 16% in 2025. That comparison is Gartner’s estimate of the component-cost share, not the share of a PC’s retail price attributable to memory. Gartner further predicted that the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment would disappear by 2028; that is a prediction, not an established outcome.
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For a PC shopper, compare the actual configuration rather than just the model name or advertised starting price. Check installed RAM, SSD capacity and the total cost of the version you would buy. If considering an upgrade, verify whether the particular system allows it. A desktop DDR5 kit is relevant only if the machine supports replaceable DDR5 DIMMs; compatibility depends on the system or motherboard specification, memory generation, form factor and supported capacity. A kit that fits one computer is not automatically suitable for another.
Why might smartphone buyers experience it differently?
Phones use mobile DRAM and eMMC or UFS storage, rather than the replaceable DIMM memory commonly found in desktop PCs. Treat both as fixed unless the manufacturer’s documentation for the exact phone says otherwise. A buyer generally has to choose the capacity at purchase rather than plan on installing a memory module later.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchTrendForce’s September 30, 2026 outlook said mobile DRAM allocations remained tight and that the cost increase in mobile DRAM, along with the depletion of low-cost inventories, continued to weigh on smartphone production. It expected upward mobile DRAM price pressure to continue into 4Q26, with growth moderating after increases in earlier quarters. This describes supply and production pressure; it does not establish a uniform change in phone prices.
Gartner forecast smartphone prices to increase 13% in 2026 compared with 2025 and worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 8.4% in 2026 compared with 2025. Gartner expected entry-level phones to be disproportionately affected. It also identified refurbished or second-hand phones and keeping an existing device longer as possible responses for buyers. These are Gartner’s forecasts and analysis, not a guarantee of what any individual shopper will find.
Why are memory costs rising?
TrendForce connects the pressure to strong demand from AI and data centers, alongside suppliers directing capacity toward high-performance server products. Its February 2026 outlook said persistent AI and data-center demand was worsening the supply-demand imbalance and increasing suppliers’ pricing power. Its September 2026 outlook said suppliers continued to prioritize advanced-process capacity for high-performance server products, leaving the overall market undersupplied.
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“Memory prices” are not one uniform price. TrendForce’s outlooks distinguish conventional DRAM, PC DRAM, mobile DRAM, NAND Flash, client SSDs and enterprise SSDs. Prices, supply and allocation can differ across these segments. Device makers may also change how much memory or storage they put into a model, so a component-price movement need not affect every product line in the same way.
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Should you buy a PC or phone now, or wait?
The market forecasts cannot settle that choice for an individual buyer. Gartner’s annual figures and TrendForce’s quarterly component outlooks describe broad markets, not a guaranteed future price for a specific device. Nor do they show whether a particular retailer’s current promotion is better than the price it will offer later. Base the decision on the exact device and configuration you need, the price available in your market, and the cost of alternatives.
- Identify the configuration you actually need. For a PC, note the installed RAM and SSD capacity. For a phone, check the mobile memory and storage configuration listed for the exact model and regional version.
- Compare like with like. Check the total price for the same model and capacity, not just the base price of one listing against a more capable configuration elsewhere.
- Check whether future upgrades are realistic. For a PC, consult the manufacturer’s system documentation before assuming RAM or storage can be changed. For a phone, treat those components as fixed unless the manufacturer documents an upgrade path.
- Include alternatives in the price comparison. Compare a previous-generation device or a refurbished option where available, and account for warranty and support as well as the purchase price.
- Make the timing decision against your own need. If your current device meets your needs, waiting is one option; if you need a replacement, compare current local offers rather than treating a broad forecast as a quote or a deadline.
What the forecasts do—and do not—tell you
Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal described the expected effect on shipments in the February 26, 2026 release: “This is the steepest contraction in device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.” The statement is Gartner’s analysis of its forecast, not an observed result for every market.
The same release quoted Atwal’s prediction that “The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028.” That prediction can help explain why budget devices are a concern in Gartner’s outlook, but it should not be treated as a certainty about future product availability.
The available figures are global market forecasts and component-market analysis. They do not establish actual price changes for a named country, retailer, manufacturer or device model. To know what a memory-price surge means for your purchase, use the forecasts as context, then verify the exact configuration and local price you can buy.
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