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UBS’s 2026 Global Real Estate Bubble Index highlights ten housing markets with varying levels of vulnerability—not ten cities all judged equally likely to experience a bubble or a near-term crash. Zurich and Tokyo are the only markets in the group UBS classifies as high risk; five are elevated risk and three are moderate risk. The index assesses warning signs of overvaluation, not when or whether prices will fall.
How to read the 10-city selection
The ten markets below are Quartz’s featured selection, paired with the risk categories in UBS’s 2026 release. They are not a score-ranked top ten: UBS’s accessible release categorizes markets but does not provide verified individual scores for each city here. The index examines 23 major cities, adding Seoul and Lisbon to its sample for the first time in 2026. UBS’s 2026 release explains the categories and the signals behind them.
| Market | UBS risk category | What UBS highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Zurich | High | Highest risk in the index, with a high and rising price-to-rent ratio, low financing costs, constrained supply and near-zero vacancy. |
| Tokyo | High | Long-running price gains have outpaced incomes and tightened affordability, although imbalances eased over the latest year. |
| Miami | Elevated | Down from the highest position in the two preceding editions; affordability pressures, borrowing costs and rising insurance premiums have weighed on demand. |
| Dubai | Elevated | Risk eased after peaking in March but remains elevated; prices widened their gap from incomes and rents over the year. |
| Seoul | Elevated | New to the sample; risk rose sharply, and real house prices increased around 10% over the reported year. |
| Geneva | Elevated | UBS links rising risk to low Swiss financing costs. |
| Lisbon | Elevated | New to the sample; real prices grew nearly 7% annually on average over the prior decade and rose roughly 10% since mid-2025, while rents stalled. |
| Hong Kong | Moderate | Real prices rose around 10% over the reported year and imbalances widened. |
| Madrid | Moderate | Real prices rose around 10% over the reported year and imbalances widened. |
| Milan | Moderate | Risk increased over the year and prices moved further from fundamentals, but UBS still classifies the market as moderate. |
“High,” “elevated” and “moderate” are distinct risk categories, not interchangeable descriptions. In particular, the three moderate-risk cities remain in the selection because the list covers a range of vulnerability signals, not only the highest category.
What UBS means by housing bubble risk
UBS describes a housing bubble as significant and sustained property-price overvaluation, which is typically evident only after a correction. Its index looks for warning signs such as a widening gap between prices and incomes or rents, excessive credit growth, and construction activity. These indicators help assess vulnerability; they do not establish that a correction is imminent.
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Prices rising quickly is only one part of the picture. A market can become more vulnerable when home values pull away from rents or local purchasing power, or when cheap financing and limited supply help sustain high prices. Conversely, a rise in prices does not by itself prove that a bubble exists.
Where prices rose—and where they fell
UBS reports that real house prices rose around 10% over the reported year in Seoul, Lisbon, Madrid and Hong Kong. In contrast, Vancouver and Toronto recorded approximate real declines of 10%. These are past reported movements, not predictions; the latter two cities are not part of this article’s ten-market selection.
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The mix of price movements and risk categories illustrates why the index should not be read as a simple growth leaderboard. Hong Kong and Madrid saw strong real-price gains but remain in the moderate category, while Zurich and Tokyo are high risk for broader patterns of imbalance and vulnerability.
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Across most cities UBS studied, the annual cost of owning a newly purchased 60-square-meter (about 650-square-foot) home—including mortgage interest and maintenance—exceeds 40% of a highly skilled worker’s gross income. This is a broad affordability measure, not a city-by-city figure for each of the ten markets.
Financing conditions also matter. UBS economist and study lead author Matthias Holzhey said: “Higher-for-longer financing costs are likely to cap house-price gains in the near term.” That is UBS’s view on a near-term constraint, not a forecast that prices must decline. Its study author and economist Maciej Skoczek added: “At current valuations, housing in most cities is nevertheless likely to provide inflation protection over the medium term.” Both statements are UBS assessments, not guarantees for individual cities or properties.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the historical comparison does—and does not—show
UBS reports that markets it classified as high risk in 2021 subsequently recorded average real price declines of roughly 15%, the sharpest average declines in its comparison. That retrospective average describes a group of markets over a past period. It is not a forecast of a 15% fall in Zurich, Tokyo, or any other city currently classified as high risk.
The index identifies potential correction vulnerability but does not say when declines will occur. Macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment and housing supply can act as catalysts, and their timing is uncertain. A category is therefore best used as a warning signal to examine local conditions—not as a calendar or a prediction of an individual home’s value.
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