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There is no defensible winner from the available disclosures alone. Goodman Group and Prologis are both listed logistics-property businesses, but the figures available for comparison cover different periods, currencies and leverage definitions. Goodman’s latest detailed figures are for the half year ended 31 December 2025, while the detailed Prologis information available here is from FY25.
Goodman shows strong operating momentum and a large development pipeline with substantial data-centre exposure. Prologis reports a global logistics platform and FY25 leverage of 5.3 times debt to adjusted EBITDA. Neither profile proves that its shares will deliver the higher return. A sound decision requires aligned financial periods, current share prices, comparable valuation measures, funding costs, currency effects and the investor’s tax position.
Why a straight winner is not established
Investment quality and investment return are different questions. A company can own excellent properties, lease them effectively and still be an unattractive stock if its shares already discount years of growth. Conversely, a business with slower near-term growth can produce better returns when bought at a lower valuation.
The comparison is also uneven in time. Goodman’s detailed operating data cited here come mainly from its half-year FY26 report, covering the six months ended 31 December 2025. Prologis’s detailed leverage figure comes from its FY25 results and filing. Goodman’s investor archive lists FY26 full-year results and a 2026 annual report published on 19 August 2026, but the detailed full-year figures were not available in the company material used for this comparison. The available information therefore cannot support a same-date ranking.
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Currency adds another layer. Goodman reports in Australian dollars and trades on the Australian Securities Exchange as ASX:GMG. Prologis reports in US dollars and trades in New York as NYSE:PLD. An investor measuring returns in another currency will experience exchange-rate gains or losses in addition to the companies’ property performance.
What each company owns and how it makes money
Goodman Group
Goodman Group comprises Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited. Its investor materials describe a portfolio spanning logistics, distribution, warehouse, light-industrial and data-centre assets. The group combines property ownership and investment with development activity and related management operations, so reported earnings can reflect both recurring property income and the timing of development and valuation outcomes.
Prologis
Prologis, Inc. is described in its FY25 results and annual filing as a global logistics real-estate platform with operating properties and development opportunities. Its scale and geographic breadth can diversify exposure across logistics markets, but global operations also introduce differences in market rents, interest rates, regulation, tax and currency that a shareholder must assess.
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Goodman Group: latest detailed operating snapshot
The following figures are from Goodman Group’s half year ended 31 December 2025 unless noted otherwise. They are reported company figures, not forecasts of shareholder returns.
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| Measure | Reported result | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Operating profit | A$1,203.5 million for 1H FY26 | An operating measure for the half year; it is not the same as statutory profit or total shareholder return. |
| Operating earnings per security | 58.5 cents for 1H FY26 | Useful for tracking the company’s operating result per security, but it should be compared with a consistently defined Prologis measure. |
| Statutory profit | A$824.7 million for 1H FY26 | Includes accounting items that may differ from operating profit. |
| Total portfolio | A$87.4 billion at 31 December 2025 | A reported portfolio value at that date, not a promise of future asset appreciation. |
| Portfolio occupancy | 95.9% at 31 December 2025 | A high occupancy level, but the lease expiry schedule, tenant quality and renewal economics still matter. |
| Like-for-like net property income growth | 4.2% at 31 December 2025 | Growth on a comparable property basis as reported by Goodman; the definition should be matched with Prologis’s measure before comparison. |
| Development work in progress | A$14.4 billion across 51 projects | Capital still being developed, rather than completed income-producing assets. |
| Forecast yield on cost | 8.1% on the development work in progress | A forecast development metric. It is not a guaranteed return to shareholders and depends on delivery, leasing, costs and market conditions. |
| Data-centre share of development work in progress | 73% | Shows a major strategic emphasis on data centres within the pipeline. |
| Global power bank | 6.0 GW across 16 major global cities | Company-reported pipeline and power-access context, not equivalent to completed data-centre capacity or revenue. |
| Net tangible assets per security | A$11.18 | An asset-value measure that needs to be compared with the security price on the same date. |
| Gearing | 4.1% | Goodman’s reported measure; the definition is not interchangeable with Prologis’s debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio. |
| Look-through gearing | 17.8% | Includes additional exposure under Goodman’s look-through methodology; still not directly comparable with Prologis’s leverage measure. |
| Distribution | 15.0 cents per security for 1H FY26 | The distribution reported for the half year. |
| FY26 distribution forecast | 30.0 cents per security | A company forecast, not a guaranteed payment. |
For a prior full-year reference, Goodman’s FY25 release reported an A$85.6 billion total portfolio, 96.5% occupancy and 4.3% like-for-like net property income growth at 30 June 2025. Those FY25 figures provide context for the direction of the business but do not replace the later half-year data.
Prologis: what the available FY25 disclosure establishes
The detailed Prologis information available for this comparison establishes one directly quoted balance-sheet indicator: FY25 debt-to-adjusted EBITDA of 5.3 times. This ratio measures debt against a company-defined adjusted EBITDA figure. It is useful for considering financing risk and debt capacity, but it is not a percentage gearing ratio and cannot be ranked mechanically against Goodman’s reported gearing or look-through gearing.
| Measure | Available Prologis result | Comparison limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-adjusted EBITDA | 5.3x for FY25 | Different denominator and methodology from Goodman’s gearing measures. |
| Comparable occupancy and like-for-like income growth | Not stated in the available FY25 material used here | Obtain the exact reporting date, portfolio scope and definition before comparing with Goodman. |
| Comparable development pipeline and data-centre exposure | Not stated in the available material used here | Do not infer that Prologis has the same development mix or power strategy as Goodman. |
| FY26 operating snapshot | Not established in the available material | Do not present FY25 Prologis figures as a current FY26 comparison. |
That limited data set does not mean Prologis lacks operating strengths. It means a responsible article cannot manufacture a complete head-to-head table from non-comparable disclosures. The next step is to collect Prologis’s latest official annual or quarterly release and match each metric by period and definition.
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Use the following axes rather than treating one headline number as a verdict.
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| Axis | Why it matters | What the available disclosures show |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings growth and composition | Property income, development gains and management activities have different timing and volatility. | Goodman reports operating profit, operating earnings per security and statutory profit for 1H FY26. A same-period, consistently defined Prologis comparison is still required. |
| Occupancy, rent growth and portfolio quality | Occupancy and rent growth help indicate the stability and growth potential of property income. | Goodman reports high occupancy and positive like-for-like net property income growth. Comparable Prologis dates and definitions are not established here. |
| Development execution | Work in progress can create future growth, but construction, leasing, financing and completion risks affect outcomes. | Goodman has a large, forecast-yield pipeline. Forecast yield on cost is not realized shareholder return. |
| Data-centre exposure and power | Data centres may offer structural demand growth while requiring substantial power, permitting, customer and capital execution. | Goodman’s pipeline is heavily weighted to data centres and includes a reported power bank. Neither figure proves completed capacity or contracted revenue. |
| Balance sheet and capital access | Leverage affects resilience during higher rates or weaker property markets and determines how much development can be funded. | Goodman publishes gearing and look-through gearing; Prologis publishes debt-to-adjusted EBITDA. The methodologies must be reconciled before any ranking. |
| Valuation and shareholder return | Entry price, cash-flow growth and distributions determine expected return. | No same-date share prices, valuation multiples, analyst estimates or total-return comparison are established here. |
| Currency, tax and market access | Exchange rates, withholding tax, local tax rules and brokerage access change the return an individual investor actually receives. | Goodman is an Australian-dollar security and Prologis is a US-dollar security; the effect depends on the investor’s home jurisdiction and account. |
How to interpret Goodman’s development and data-centre strategy
Pipeline growth is an opportunity and a liability
A development pipeline can expand future rent, asset values and fee income, but it also consumes capital before producing stabilized cash flow. Actual results depend on construction costs, planning approvals, contractor availability, tenant commitments, financing conditions and the price at which completed assets can be retained or sold.
Goodman’s forecast yield on cost should therefore be treated as an underwriting assumption. It is not a coupon, a dividend yield or a forecast earnings-per-security growth rate. A project can achieve its forecast yield only if the cost base, leasing assumptions and operating conditions hold.
Why data centres change the risk profile
Data-centre development can support higher-value, long-duration customer relationships, but it is infrastructure-intensive. Power availability, grid connection timing, land, cooling, permitting, network access and customer concentration can determine whether a site becomes revenue-producing. A reported power bank indicates access or planned access to power across identified markets; it does not establish that the capacity is built, energized, leased or generating income.
Investors should ask how much of the pipeline is committed, under construction or merely identified; how costs are funded; who bears power and construction risk; and whether customers have signed contracts. Those answers are more informative than the pipeline headline alone.
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How to interpret Prologis’s leverage measure
Debt-to-adjusted EBITDA is a credit-oriented ratio. Lower leverage generally leaves more room to absorb falling property income or higher refinancing costs, while higher leverage can magnify returns when asset values and rents rise. The ratio’s meaning depends on the adjustment policy, debt maturity schedule, interest-rate hedging, secured versus unsecured borrowing and the value of unconsolidated investments.
Goodman’s gearing and look-through gearing answer a different question because they are expressed as percentages and use a different treatment of assets, debt and investments. A lower percentage beside a higher debt-to-EBITDA multiple would not automatically make one balance sheet safer. Read the notes, definitions and maturity tables before drawing a conclusion.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Valuation is the missing decision variable
Operating quality cannot identify the better stock without the price paid for it. At minimum, an investor should collect the share price on a common date, market capitalization, net asset value or net tangible assets, recurring earnings or funds-from-operations measures, distribution per share, payout ratio and an enterprise-value-to-operating metric where the definitions are comparable.
For Goodman, the reported net tangible assets per security can be compared with the ASX price on the same date, but that produces an asset-value relationship rather than a complete return forecast. For Prologis, the equivalent asset and cash-flow measures must be obtained from the same reporting period. Do not compare Goodman’s operating earnings per security with a Prologis figure calculated under a different non-GAAP policy.
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Valuation also needs a scenario range. Test what happens if rent growth slows, interest rates stay elevated, development spending is delayed, data-centre projects cost more than expected or the Australian dollar moves materially against the US dollar. A stock that looks inexpensive under one assumption may not be inexpensive under a more conservative case.
Currency, tax and access considerations
Currency exposure
An Australian investor buying Prologis carries US-dollar exposure unless it is hedged; an overseas investor buying Goodman carries Australian-dollar exposure. Currency movements can overwhelm a modest difference in property returns over a short holding period. Compare returns in both the security’s local currency and the investor’s reporting currency.
Tax treatment
Distributions, dividends, capital gains and withholding taxes vary by investor residence, account type and security structure. Goodman’s group structure includes a listed company, an industrial trust and a Hong Kong logistics entity, while Prologis is a US-listed corporation. Those structural differences can affect reporting and tax paperwork. Obtain local professional advice rather than assuming that a distribution rate is the amount received after tax.
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Confirm that the chosen brokerage account can trade ASX:GMG or NYSE:PLD, supports the required currency conversion and discloses foreign-market fees. Bid-ask spreads, custody charges, conversion costs and withholding can materially change the result for small or infrequent investments.
A practical process for making the comparison current
- Collect aligned reports. Use Goodman’s detailed FY26 full-year release and annual report, including the report published on 19 August 2026, and obtain Prologis’s latest official FY26 results. Do not combine a Goodman half-year figure with a Prologis full-year figure without labeling the difference.
- Build a common-period worksheet. Record the reporting date beside every metric. Separate recurring property income, development gains, valuation movements, management income and one-time items.
- Normalize operating measures. Match occupancy definitions, like-for-like income growth, net operating income, funds from operations, earnings per security and distribution coverage. If a definition cannot be matched, mark the cell as not comparable instead of forcing a ranking.
- Reconcile leverage. Read each company’s debt, cash, joint-venture and adjusted-EBITDA definitions. Include debt maturities, floating-rate exposure, hedges and covenant headroom rather than comparing a single ratio.
- Separate completed assets from development. Classify projects as operating, leased, under construction, committed or prospective. Record expected completion dates, funding sources, pre-leasing and sensitivity to construction and power costs.
- Check valuation on one date. Capture each share price, market capitalization, net asset measure, recurring cash-flow measure and distribution yield at the same time. State the currency and whether the price is intraday, closing or otherwise measured.
- Model the investor’s result. Add currency conversion, brokerage, withholding tax, local tax and reinvestment assumptions. Run base, optimistic and stressed cases over the intended holding period.
- Set a review trigger. Revisit the thesis after major results, refinancing announcements, material changes to development commitments, occupancy deterioration or a valuation move that invalidates the original assumptions.
Common mistakes and how to avoid them
- Calling a forecast yield a dividend yield. A development yield on cost describes a project underwriting assumption, not the cash yield on the listed security.
- Treating power-bank capacity as operating data-centre capacity. Power access is an enabling resource; it is not proof of completed, leased or revenue-producing facilities.
- Comparing leverage labels instead of definitions. Gearing percentages and debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA multiples use different denominators and may include different investments.
- Mixing reporting periods. A Goodman half-year result and a Prologis full-year result can produce misleading growth and margin comparisons.
- Using occupancy without lease context. Occupancy does not show lease expiry concentration, incentives, tenant credit or the rent available on renewal.
- Ignoring valuation. Strong operations do not protect a buyer from overpaying for expected growth.
- Assuming distributions are guaranteed. Goodman’s cited FY26 distribution figure is a company forecast; future payments depend on earnings, capital needs, board decisions and market conditions.
- Ignoring jurisdiction. Currency conversion, withholding and access to an overseas exchange can change realized returns even when local-currency share performance is identical.
What would justify a future preference?
A preference for Goodman would require evidence that its development pipeline can be delivered at acceptable cost, that data-centre projects secure power and customers, that balance-sheet capacity remains adequate and that the share price offers sufficient compensation for execution risk. The operating indicators in the latest detailed half-year report are encouraging, but they do not answer those valuation and delivery questions.
A preference for Prologis would require a comparable current operating set, confirmation of how its global portfolio is performing, a clear view of debt maturities and financing costs, and a valuation that offers an attractive risk-adjusted return. Its reported global platform and leverage measure are relevant starting points, not a complete investment case.
Until those inputs are aligned, the most accurate conclusion is conditional: Goodman may appeal to an investor seeking development and data-centre exposure, while Prologis may appeal to an investor seeking a global logistics platform, but neither can be declared the better investment solely from the disclosed figures above.
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