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Wildfire activity declined on average in some global and regional comparisons during the early COVID-19 lockdowns, while fires increased in other places. Those findings are compatible: they cover different regions, time periods, baselines and measures. They also do not show that fires increased “without human intervention.” In Madagascar, for example, excess fires coincided with suspended protected-area management, but the study did not establish that the fires were naturally ignited.
What happened to global fires during lockdown?
A Zhang and Wang analysis presented as an abstract at the 2025 EGU General Assembly estimated an average reduction in global fire incidence during the first half of 2020 lockdowns, compared with the 2016–2019 average. The abstract’s authors wrote: “Lockdown measures led to an average reduction of 11.8% in fire incidence worldwide.” They also reported substantial differences among countries. This is a conference-abstract finding, not a peer-reviewed consensus or proof that lockdowns caused a uniform global change.
A separate 2025 study examining global wildfire hotspots over 2020–2022 found declines it considered likely associated with fewer human ignitions and weather anomalies, alongside intensified burning in some boreal and temperate regions. Its longer period and hotspot focus make it a different analysis—not a direct confirmation of the first-half-of-2020 incidence estimate.
Why can global activity fall while fires rise locally?
A global average combines places where activity fell with places where it rose. A large decline across many locations can outweigh increases elsewhere without making those local increases disappear. Lockdowns also did not remove every source of ignition or affect every landscape in the same way: mobility, land clearing, prescribed burning, monitoring and enforcement all vary by place, as do weather and fuel conditions.
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Studies may also be counting different things. Satellite active-fire detections identify heat sources observed at the time of a satellite overpass; they are not a complete count of every fire. Incident counts record reported events, fire radiative power measures radiative energy at detection, and burned area measures land affected over time. Fire intensity is another distinct property. These measures can move in different directions, so a fall in one cannot automatically be described as a fall in all wildfire activity.
How did regional studies differ?
The table compares the reported findings without treating unlike metrics or study designs as interchangeable. Each result applies to its stated geography and comparison, rather than to all fires worldwide.
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| Place and study | Measure and comparison | Reported finding | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global; Zhang and Wang, EGU General Assembly abstract, 2025 | Fire incidence in the first half of 2020 compared with the 2016–2019 average | Average decline of 11.8%; country-level changes ranged from a 6.3-fold increase to a 5.6-fold decrease. | Conference abstract; the global average masks substantial geographic variation. |
| Southeastern United States; Poulter and colleagues, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021 | Satellite active-fire observations, March–December 2020, compared with the 2003–2019 average | Fire activity was 21% lower; the study reported reductions of up to 41% on federal lands relative to the past 20 years. | Unusually wet February conditions partly contributed. The study also connected lower activity to changed ignition patterns and postponed or canceled prescribed burns. |
| Nepal; Sharma and colleagues, World Development, 2021 | Study estimates associated with each additional reported COVID-19 case | 4.54% fewer forest-fire incidents and 11.36% lower fire radiative power. | These are study-specific estimates using variation in reported cases, not global lockdown-period percentages. |
| Colombia; Amador-Jiménez and colleagues, Environmental and Resource Economics, 2020 | Observed forest fires compared with three counterfactuals | The analysis found an association between lockdown and increased forest fires. | The authors discussed reduced monitoring as a possible mechanism and regional correlations with armed-group presence, but said their econometric analysis could not establish why lockdown may have changed fire rates. |
| Protected areas in Madagascar; Eklund and colleagues, Nature Sustainability, 2022 | Observed fires compared with a model prediction accounting for climate and biome, March–July 2020 | Fires were 76–248% above predicted levels; excess fires returned to modeled levels after on-site management resumed. | Most excess fires were in western protected areas. Seasonality helped shape where anomalies appeared; the result does not identify the ignition source of every fire. |
What could have changed fire activity?
Ignitions and prescribed burning
People start many fires, deliberately or accidentally. Restrictions on travel and work can reduce some ignition opportunities, while changes in agricultural activity or land clearing can alter others. In the southeastern United States, reduced active-fire observations coincided with changes in human ignition and prescribed-fire schedules. Prescribed burns are intentionally set and managed; postponing one can reduce detections during a particular period without proving that total wildfire risk has fallen over the longer term.
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Lockdown effects depended on whether local staff could continue patrols, community engagement, fire prevention and enforcement. Madagascar’s protected-area findings connect an excess-fire period with a pause in on-site management, and the return toward the model’s predicted level after management resumed. That pattern supports the importance of management, but it does not show that the excess fires were unconnected to people or that each ignition was natural.
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In Colombia, the analysis associated lockdown with increased forest fires and considered reduced monitoring as one possible explanation. Because the study could not resolve the mechanism, it is not evidence that reduced enforcement alone caused the increase.
Weather, climate and fuels
Weather shapes whether an ignition spreads and how much land burns. The southeastern U.S. study identified unusually wet February conditions as one contributor to lower activity. Madagascar’s prediction model accounted for climate and biome, and the distribution of excess fires also reflected regional fire seasonality. Climate and land conditions can therefore amplify or offset changes in human activity; their relative influence differs by region and period.
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Does the lockdown explain the long-term decline in burned area?
No. Andela and colleagues reported a 24.3 ± 8.8% decline in global burned area over 18 years in a 2017 Science study, attributing the long-term trend primarily to agricultural expansion and intensification. That trend predates COVID-19 and measures burned area, not the short-run lockdown change in fire incidence. It should not be used as evidence that the pandemic caused a global decline.
How to read claims about lockdown and wildfires
- Check the geography: a finding for one country or region does not establish a global pattern.
- Check the time window and baseline: the first half of 2020, a March-to-December comparison and an 18-year trend answer different questions.
- Check the outcome: detections, incident counts, radiative power, burned area and intensity are related but not interchangeable.
- Check the method: a comparison with historical averages, a climate-adjusted prediction and a counterfactual analysis support different kinds of conclusions.
- Separate association from cause: observed changes during lockdown do not, by themselves, reveal whether altered ignition, management, weather or another factor produced them.
The evidence supports a qualified conclusion: some global and regional measures declined during early lockdowns, while other places experienced increases. It does not support a blanket claim that fires intensified without human intervention.
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