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The S&P 500 bull market that began on October 12, 2022, had gained 117% by October 9, 2026, according to Reuters. AI-related investment has helped power the rally, but its future depends on whether that spending produces profits—and whether gains spread beyond a small group of giant companies. The headline’s “$40 trillion up” figure is not established by the cited report, so it should not be treated as a verified measure of this bull market.
What does “four years into the bull market” mean?
Reuters dated the current S&P 500 bull market to October 12, 2022, the index’s closing low for the cycle. Its report, published October 9, 2026, described the index as near record highs and said the run had gained 117% by that date. The four-year anniversary therefore fell three days after the report.
A common definition of a bull market is a rise of at least 20% after a decline of at least 20% from a peak, though definitions vary. The start date here uses the S&P 500’s closing low—not a claim that every stock, investor portfolio, or measure of U.S. wealth rose by the same amount.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsWhy has AI become a major market driver?
Large technology companies and other hyperscalers have been investing heavily in data centers and related infrastructure to support AI. Reuters described that spending as one contributor to corporate profits and economic growth. It can lift activity directly through construction and equipment investment, while companies that provide computing infrastructure may benefit from demand.
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Reuters also reported an Oxford Economics estimate that about one-third of recent U.S. economic growth stemmed from AI. That estimate includes both direct infrastructure investment and a wealth effect from stock-market gains; it is an attributed estimate, not a separately verified finding here. It does not mean AI alone caused one-third of growth, nor that all companies associated with AI have benefited equally.
Reuters reported that AI-related hyperscaler data-center capital spending was expected to contribute to S&P 500 earnings growth of more than 35% “this year.” Because the report’s time reference is tied to its publication in October 2026, that forecast should not be read as a timeless annual rate or as a result already realized.
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How broad is the rally?
The index’s headline gain masks a concentration of returns and influence in its largest constituents. Reuters cited J.P. Morgan Asset Management figures showing that the ten largest S&P 500 companies accounted for about 40% of the index’s weight, compared with about 28% in October 2022. Index weight is not the same thing as the share of every investor’s portfolio, but it means movements in those companies can have an outsized effect on the benchmark.
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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Participation has also been uneven across sectors: according to Reuters, only technology and communication services had outperformed the S&P 500 among its eleven sectors. That makes the rally less broadly distributed than its index-level gain might suggest. As Edward Jones strategist Angelo Kourkafas told Reuters, “The risk of concentration is that if the prevailing theme goes out of favor, portfolios might feel it in an outsized way.”
Why do some strategists say the rally can continue?
The case for further gains rests on corporate profit growth, ongoing AI-related investment, and the possibility that infrastructure spending will support economic activity and eventually yield productivity gains. Reuters reported that Edward Jones remained overweight equities, though less aggressively than before. That is one firm’s positioning, not a guarantee about future returns.
Four years by itself is not a signal that a bull market must end. Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief market strategist, told Reuters: “Four years is not, by any stretch of the imagination, scary with regards to a bull market.” He added: “They don’t end of old age; they end from disease.” In practical terms, the bullish argument depends on earnings and economic conditions holding up—not simply on the market’s age.
What could end or weaken the bull market?
AI spending may not earn an adequate return
Building data centers requires substantial capital. If the companies making those investments cannot turn them into profits commensurate with the spending, investor confidence in the rally’s central theme could weaken. Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise’s chief market strategist, told Reuters that the “easy money around AI” may have been made and that technology companies face increasing pressure to show their spending translates into profits.
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Higher yields can make stocks less attractive
Higher Treasury yields can offer investors more return from bonds and put pressure on equity valuations. If interest rates rise further, or remain high, investors may demand more earnings to justify paying elevated prices for stocks. The impact depends on the path of yields, expected profits, and the prices investors are willing to pay.
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Rate hikes could slow the economy
Interest-rate increases can restrain borrowing and economic activity. A slowdown could weigh on company revenues and profits, challenging the earnings support behind the rally. The risk is distinct from the question of whether AI investment pays off: even profitable AI projects may not shield the wider market from weaker economic conditions.
Concentration magnifies a change in sentiment
When a small set of very large companies accounts for a growing share of index weight, a reversal in those names or in enthusiasm for AI can pull the benchmark down disproportionately. The same concentration that can amplify gains can therefore amplify losses.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What does the “$40 trillion up” claim establish?
The Reuters report behind the bull-market figures does not include or define the “$40 trillion up” amount. Without a source specifying the asset universe, dates, and calculation, it cannot responsibly be described as the S&P 500’s gain, an increase in market capitalization, a rise in household wealth, or any other particular measure. The supported figure for this article is Reuters’ reported 117% S&P 500 bull-market gain through October 9, 2026.
How to read the bullish case and the risks together
The evidence supports a conditional view rather than a simple prediction. AI investment, profits, and economic growth provide reasons the rally could continue; concentrated index weight, higher yields, and uncertainty about returns on AI spending provide reasons it could falter. The critical distinction is between spending on AI infrastructure and realized profits from that spending. Investment alone does not establish that every AI-exposed company—or the broader market—is attractively priced.
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