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Flood and drought vulnerability increased at the same time across India between 2001 and 2011, with the strongest concentration of overlapping hotspots emerging in eastern and northern parts of the country. An IIT Roorkee study covering 591 districts found that the share of districts rated highly vulnerable to floods rose from 16.5% to 21.4%, while the share rated highly vulnerable to drought rose from 10.6% to 18.1%.
The findings do not mean every district experienced both hazards in the same year, nor do they forecast the exact losses from a future disaster. They show that the social, economic, demographic and physical conditions that make districts susceptible to floods and droughts increasingly overlap.
What the IIT Roorkee study examined
The open-access paper, “From single to compound hazards: how flood and drought vulnerabilities have intensified across India,” was published in npj Natural Hazards on 25 August 2026. Priyanka Tripathy, Dev Anand Thakur, Vittal Hari and Mohit Prakash Mohanty analyzed 591 Indian districts using a unified Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Index (MHVI).
Researchers compared district conditions in 2001 and 2011. Instead of assessing flood exposure and drought exposure as unrelated problems, the MHVI combines indicators covering three broad dimensions:
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- socio-economic conditions;
- demographic characteristics; and
- physical conditions that influence sensitivity and coping capacity.
This district-scale approach can reveal differences hidden by state averages. Two districts in the same state may face very different combinations of income, population pressure, infrastructure, water dependence and terrain, even when the state-level statistics look moderate.
The measured increase in single-hazard vulnerability
The study found a substantial rise in the proportion of districts classified as highly vulnerable to each hazard.
| Hazard classification | 2001 | 2011 | Change in share of districts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Highly flood-vulnerable districts | 16.5% | 21.4% | +4.9 percentage points |
| Highly drought-vulnerable districts | 10.6% | 18.1% | +7.5 percentage points |
These percentages describe the study’s classifications for the two benchmark years. They are not annual probabilities and should not be read as a claim that 21.4% of districts flood, or that 18.1% experience drought, every year.
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Where flood and drought risks overlap
The paper reports a growing concentration of multi-hazard hotspots in eastern and northern India. Contemporary accounts of the findings identify Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Bihar and Jharkhand as states containing districts where both flood and drought vulnerability increased.
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal were described as remaining toward the higher end for both hazards. That description applies to vulnerability levels in the study’s district comparison; it does not assign one uniform risk rating to every district in those states.
Eastern and northern India contain highly varied landscapes, river systems, agricultural patterns and settlement conditions. A district may be exposed to river or rainfall flooding while also having households, farms or water systems that are sensitive to rainfall deficits. The same infrastructure and livelihood systems can therefore carry different forms of stress at different times.
Why treating the hazards separately can miss the problem
Flood programs commonly emphasize drainage, embankments, warnings, evacuation and emergency response. Drought programs often focus on irrigation, water storage, crop choices, groundwater and relief. Those measures remain necessary, but separate administrative planning can overlook communities that need both sets of protections.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Mohit Prakash Mohanty, the study’s corresponding researcher, summarized the issue: “Floods and droughts are often treated as separate risks, but their consequences are experienced by communities within the same social and physical systems.”
For planners, convergence changes the order of questions. Instead of asking only which districts are flood-prone or drought-prone, they can ask which districts have overlapping vulnerability, which populations have the least ability to recover, and which investments reduce sensitivity to both hazards. Examples include protecting critical water and transport infrastructure, improving local water storage without increasing flood exposure, strengthening crop and livelihood resilience, and aligning early-warning and contingency plans.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Index does—and does not—say
What it provides
- A relative comparison of underlying vulnerability across districts.
- A way to identify districts with high vulnerability to one hazard or to overlapping hazards.
- A consistent framework for comparing the 2001 and 2011 district situations.
- Evidence that district-level patterns can differ from state-level averages.
What it cannot predict by itself
- The exact date, location or magnitude of a future flood or drought.
- The monetary losses from a particular event.
- Whether a specific district will experience both hazards in the same season or year.
- The effectiveness of a particular adaptation project without additional local analysis.
The institute-linked explanation of the index cautions that MHVI is not a deterministic prediction of disaster losses or impacts. It is an assessment of relative vulnerability based on combined indicators. Event forecasts, hydrological information, climate projections and local disaster records are still needed for operational decisions.
What the results mean for policy and local preparedness
The study’s practical contribution is to support integrated risk reduction at district scale. A planning process informed by the index could:
- Map flood, drought and overlapping MHVI classifications together rather than in separate departmental maps.
- Prioritize districts where high vulnerability coincides with major population, agricultural or infrastructure dependence.
- Check whether flood-control projects alter water availability or drought sensitivity, and whether drought measures increase flood exposure.
- Design district contingency plans that cover evacuation, drinking water, health services, crop protection and livelihood recovery.
- Update the assessment with newer demographic, infrastructure, hazard and climate data before making current investment decisions.
The 2001–2011 comparison is valuable for showing direction and scale of change, but it is not a substitute for a current district assessment. India’s administrative boundaries, infrastructure, population and climate conditions have continued to change since 2011.
The key takeaway
India’s flood and drought vulnerabilities are not simply two separate maps. In the IIT Roorkee analysis, both categories expanded across the 591-district sample, and overlapping hotspots became more concentrated in eastern and northern India. District-level, multi-hazard planning can expose these intersections and help authorities target preparedness and adaptation where communities face the greatest combined pressures.
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