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The next scheduled Federal Reserve interest-rate decision is due Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2 p.m. Eastern. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets October 27–28; its final regular meeting of 2026 is December 8–9, with the decision expected at 2 p.m. Eastern on December 9. The date and time are fixed on the calendar, but the outcome is not: the committee can raise, lower or leave unchanged its target range for the federal funds rate after reviewing inflation, employment and financial conditions.
A Fed move affects borrowing costs through short-term market rates, but it does not automatically change every mortgage, credit-card APR or business-loan rate by the same amount or on the same day. The product’s benchmark, repricing schedule, lender margin and broader market conditions determine what a borrower actually pays.
When is the next Fed rate decision?
The FOMC normally holds eight scheduled meetings a year, approximately six weeks apart. After the October 18, 2026 calendar point, the remaining regular meetings are:
| Meeting dates | Decision day | Announcement time | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 27–28, 2026 | Wednesday, October 28 | 2 p.m. Eastern | Policy statement; the Chair’s press briefing follows |
| December 8–9, 2026 | Wednesday, December 9 | 2 p.m. Eastern | Policy statement; a quarterly meeting generally includes participant economic projections |
The 2 p.m. announcement applies to a regular meeting and is issued on the second day. The FOMC can meet outside the regular schedule in unusual circumstances, so an emergency action would not necessarily follow this timetable. Check the Federal Reserve’s current FOMC calendar before relying on a date, because calendars and policy decisions can change.
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- 12-Month Warranty: Backed by a 12-month manufacturer warranty for peace of mind. Designed to meet strict quality control standards for reliable everyday performance.
What does the Federal Reserve actually decide?
The FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate. This is the overnight rate that banks charge one another for certain reserve transactions. It is not a consumer mortgage rate, a credit-card APR or a business-loan quote.
The Federal Reserve keeps the market rate near its target range primarily through the interest rate it pays on reserve balances and the rate offered through its overnight reverse repurchase facility. Those operating tools influence conditions in money markets, which then affect other short-term rates.
The committee’s legal goals are maximum employment and price stability. Its long-run inflation objective is 2 percent, measured by the annual change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The July 29, 2026 statement put the target range at 3.5% to 3.75% and said inflation was still elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, citing supply shocks including energy.
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How inflation affects a rate decision
The 2 percent PCE objective
The FOMC has said that 2 percent annual PCE inflation is most consistent over the longer run with its dual mandate. A single monthly reading does not determine policy. Policymakers examine trends over longer periods, multiple inflation measures and individual categories to distinguish persistent pressure from a temporary jump.
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Headline and core inflation
Headline PCE includes all consumer categories, including food and energy. Core PCE excludes food and energy to make underlying trends easier to evaluate, although policymakers still monitor headline prices because households pay them and because energy shocks can spread through the economy.
The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report recorded May 2026 total PCE inflation at 4.1% and May 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.4%. Both are May readings published in that July report, not a real-time October estimate. They were above the 2 percent objective and help explain why the July statement described inflation as elevated. The committee also weighs whether supply-driven price increases are likely to fade, persist or broaden.
Inflation expectations and employment
Officials consider inflation expectations, labor-market conditions and the balance between demand and the economy’s productive capacity. A weakening labor market can argue for less restrictive policy, while persistent inflation or rising expectations can argue for holding rates higher or increasing them. Financial and international developments also enter the assessment.
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No meeting date guarantees a hike, cut or hold. The March 18, 2026 statement says the committee will assess “incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks” when considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments. That language deliberately leaves the path dependent on information available before each meeting.
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Analysts and market prices can imply a probability for different outcomes, but those probabilities are not commitments by the FOMC. A sudden inflation report, employment release, financial-market disruption or overseas event can change expectations before the decision. The most reliable confirmation is the statement released at 2 p.m. Eastern on decision day.
Hike, cut or hold: what each outcome means
| Outcome | Typical policy rationale | Likely short-term market direction | Why the consumer effect varies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate hike | Inflation is too persistent, demand is too strong, or risks to price stability have increased. | Short-term borrowing rates generally face upward pressure; returns on some cash products may also rise. | Variable products may reprice according to their contracts, while fixed loans and market-based products can move before or independently of the announcement. |
| Rate cut | Inflation is easing and employment or economic activity needs support, or downside risks have increased. | Short-term borrowing rates generally face downward pressure; some savings yields may decline. | Lenders may pass through all, part or none of the change immediately, depending on benchmarks, margins and competition. |
| Hold | The committee wants more evidence that inflation is moving toward 2 percent or that employment risks are balanced. | Existing policy restraint remains in place, although market rates can still move on new information. | A hold does not freeze every rate; lenders and bond markets can adjust to the statement’s wording and outlook. |
These are directional channels, not guarantees. The Federal Reserve says changes in the target range influence short-term rates for other financial instruments, which affect household and business spending, economic activity, employment and inflation.
How a Fed decision reaches your borrowing costs
Credit cards and other variable-rate debt
Variable-rate credit cards and lines of credit often use a contractually specified benchmark plus the issuer’s margin. When that benchmark is linked to short-term policy conditions, a Fed move can be reflected after the issuer’s next repricing cycle. The account agreement controls the timing and calculation, so read the rate-change section rather than assuming a one-for-one adjustment.
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A fixed-rate mortgage does not reset each time the FOMC changes its target range. Its rate is set when the loan is priced and is influenced by broader bond-market conditions, lender funding costs and the outlook for inflation and growth. Those markets often anticipate a Fed move, so fixed mortgage rates can change before the announcement or remain unchanged afterward.
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An adjustable-rate mortgage follows the index and reset schedule written into the note. A Fed move may affect the relevant market environment, but the borrower’s payment changes only when the contract calls for a reset and only by the amount permitted under its caps and margins.
Auto loans
Many auto loans have fixed payments for the term. A new-loan quote can respond to market funding costs and lender promotions, while an existing fixed loan normally does not change. A variable contract, if offered, follows its stated index and adjustment dates.
Business loans
Variable-rate business lines and loans can reprice relatively quickly when their benchmark resets. Fixed-rate commercial loans may be priced from longer-term market rates and can respond to expectations rather than the announcement itself. Banks may also alter credit spreads, fees or underwriting standards when economic risks change.
Savings and money-market products
The same short-term channel can affect deposit yields. Banks may raise or lower savings, money-market and short-term certificate rates according to funding needs and competition, not solely by matching the FOMC’s move. A rate that changes daily in a market account can react faster than a certificate with a locked term.
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How long after a decision do rates change?
There is no universal lag. Use the product’s repricing rules and distinguish three stages:
- Before the meeting: Bond and money markets trade on expectations. Fixed mortgage and business-loan quotes may move even when the FOMC ultimately holds.
- Immediately after 2 p.m. Eastern: Short-term market rates can adjust within minutes as traders digest the target range and statement. Lenders may update new quotes the same day, but they are not required to pass through the entire move.
- At the next contractual reset: Variable-rate accounts apply the benchmark, margin and adjustment frequency specified in the agreement. This can be the next billing cycle, a monthly reset, a quarterly date or another schedule.
The statement’s wording can matter as much as the numerical change. If investors expected a 0.25-percentage-point cut, for example, a cut of that size may have little immediate effect on market rates; a surprise or a change in the committee’s outlook can produce a larger move. Individual lenders can also delay, limit or exceed pass-through because of funding costs, credit risk and competition.
What happens on decision day?
- 2 p.m. Eastern: The FOMC releases its policy statement and target range.
- Shortly afterward: The Chair holds a press briefing after a regular meeting, explaining the decision and answering questions. The briefing can clarify how officials view inflation, employment and risks, but it does not replace the written target range.
- About three weeks later: Minutes of the regular meeting are generally released. They provide a fuller record of participants’ discussion and the range of views, rather than a new policy decision.
- Quarterly meetings: Participants generally publish economic projections, including views on growth, unemployment and inflation. Projections are not promises and can change as data arrive.
The FOMC has 12 members: the seven members of the Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank presidents. Four Reserve Bank president voting seats rotate among the districts; all Reserve Bank presidents participate in discussions. This structure means the people speaking publicly and those casting a vote are not always the same group, although all contribute to deliberations.
Quick Recap
How to follow the next decision without misreading it
- Confirm the meeting dates and announcement time on the current FOMC calendar.
- Read the target range in the statement, not a headline that says rates “changed.”
- Check whether the statement describes inflation as elevated, easing or persistent and note any reference to energy or other supply shocks.
- Look for language about employment, inflation expectations, financial conditions and international developments.
- For a loan, identify the benchmark, lender margin, reset date, caps and notice period in the contract.
- Compare your lender’s updated APR or payment notice with the contractual formula instead of assuming the Fed move was passed through fully.
Common mistakes to avoid
- Confusing the federal funds target with your APR: The target is an overnight interbank range; consumer rates include different benchmarks, margins, fees and risk pricing.
- Treating the calendar as a forecast: October 28 and December 9 are announcement dates, not promises of a hike or cut.
- Using an old inflation number as current: The 4.1% total PCE and 3.4% core PCE figures are May 2026 readings published in the July report.
- Assuming every rate moves together: Fixed loans, variable loans, deposits and market-based products follow different schedules.
- Ignoring the statement: The target-range change alone does not show how officials see future risks; the accompanying language can move markets.
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