iTechGuides is reader-supported. When you buy through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. Learn more
El Niño can disrupt sardine and mackerel supplies by warming surface water, weakening or shifting upwelling, and moving the plankton and habitat that small pelagic fish depend on. The effect is not a simple “warmer water means fewer fish” rule. Pacific sardines have the clearer documented supply vulnerability: most U.S. West Coast sardine fisheries have been closed since 2015 after biomass fell below the management cutoff. Pacific mackerel are classified as not overfished and not subject to overfishing, yet their abundance remains historically low and their distribution shifts north during El Niño.
Those biological changes can reach consumers through canneries and international trade. They may alter where fleets land fish, which ports receive them and how much processors can buy, but the available evidence does not support one global price or shortage forecast.
How El Niño changes the conditions fish need
FAO defines El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon in which “surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting weather patterns around the world.” For sardines and mackerel, the important chain is physical rather than a single temperature threshold:
Recommended Free Tools
- Surface-water temperatures change the location of suitable habitat.
- Upwelling can weaken or move, reducing the delivery of nutrients that support plankton.
- Changes in plankton abundance and species composition affect feeding and the survival of young fish.
- Fish can relocate, making them more or less accessible to particular fleets and ports.
FAO’s 1950–2023 retrospective found that strong to extraordinary Eastern Pacific El Niño events affected marine fisheries in 11 of 19 FAO major fishing areas. The geographic reach does not mean every fishery responds in the same direction; event strength, local oceanography, stock condition and management rules determine the outcome.
#1 Best Overall
- WILD CAUGHT SARDINES IN WATER: Premium, high-quality wild caught canned sardines preserved in water for a clean, natural taste with no sauce or added oil.
- GOOD SOURCE OF PROTEIN: Each ready-to-eat tin (1 serving) contains 12 grams of protein. Perfect for stocking your pantry at home or bringing on the go. Bulk case contains twelve 3.75 ounce tins.
- WHERE TRADITION MEETS NUTRITION: Gluten Free, Keto Friendly, and Paleo Friendly. An excellent high-protein, low-carb, and nutrient-dense option that supports satiety on a GLP-1 regimen.
- SHELF STABLE SEAFOOD: Beach Cliff sardines are the perfect choice for all your favorite seafood recipes. Try sardines in pasta, pizza, rice bowls, fish cakes, toasts, tartines, and salads (or right out of the can!).
- TRACEABLE SEAFOOD: Our products feature a code you can enter on our Trace My Catch website to learn where and how your seafood was caught, processed and more.
Pacific sardines show the sharper documented U.S. risk
Biomass is already below the harvest-control cutoff
NOAA Fisheries reports that most West Coast sardine fisheries have been closed since 2015 because estimated biomass fell below the current harvest-control-rule cutoff. A closure limits directed fishing; it does not mean sardines have disappeared from the Pacific or that every sardine fishery worldwide is closed. It does mean the U.S. fishery has little room to absorb another poor recruitment period or a distribution shift.
Warming can move sardines away from traditional ports
NOAA’s Future Seas work projects sardine habitat and range shifting north as warming changes the California Current ecosystem. A 2025 NOAA publication adds that gradual warming and shorter marine heatwaves can redistribute sardine subpopulations and change their availability to fishing ports. A fleet may therefore encounter fewer fish locally even when sardines remain present elsewhere.
Why a landing spike would not prove recovery
FAO cautions that El Niño can increase fish susceptibility to capture without increasing underlying productivity. A temporary increase in landings could reflect fish gathering in a catchable area rather than stronger recruitment or a larger stock. For sardines, that distinction is crucial because short-term access cannot by itself reverse a multi-year biomass problem.
Quick wins for a faster PC:
Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Pacific mackerel: mobile supply, different management status
Not overfished does not mean abundant
NOAA’s species profile says the 2023 assessment found Pacific mackerel not overfished and not subject to overfishing. The same profile says abundance remains historically low because of oceanographic conditions. “Not overfished” is a management classification against a reference threshold; it is not a guarantee of high catches, low prices or plentiful fish at every port.
Rank #2
- WILD CAUGHT SARDINES IN SOYBEAN OIL: Premium, high-quality wild caught canned sardines packed in soybean oil. A traditional favorite!
- GOOD SOURCE OF PROTEIN: Each ready-to-eat tin (1 serving) contains 13 grams of protein. Perfect for stocking your pantry at home or bringing on the go. Bulk case contains twelve 3.75 ounce tins.
- WHERE TRADITION MEETS NUTRITION: Gluten Free, Keto Friendly, and Paleo Friendly. An excellent high-protein, low-carb, and nutrient-dense option that supports satiety on a GLP-1 regimen.
- SHELF STABLE SEAFOOD: Beach Cliff sardines are the perfect choice for all your favorite seafood recipes. Try sardines in pasta, pizza, rice bowls, fish cakes, toasts, tartines, and salads (or right out of the can!).
- TRACEABLE SEAFOOD: Our products feature a code you can enter on our Trace My Catch website to learn where and how your seafood was caught, processed and more.
El Niño can move the fish north
Adults normally migrate north in summer, and NOAA says that northerly movement is accentuated during El Niño events. The immediate effect for a fleet can be a change in location and timing rather than a uniform collapse in the total Pacific mackerel population. Vessels, processing plants and quotas may not be positioned where the fish appear.
Recent catch and assessment timing
NOAA records 3.3 million pounds of Pacific mackerel landed in 2024, valued at $800,000. Those are reported landings and value for that year, not a global supply estimate or a forecast of retail prices. NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center also published a 2025 catch-only assessment covering biomass estimates and harvest guidelines for the 2025–26 and 2026–27 fishing years.
Sardines and mackerel are exposed in different ways
| Question | Pacific sardine | Pacific mackerel |
|---|---|---|
| Biological response | Recruitment, biomass and habitat respond to changing ocean conditions; warming can shift subpopulations north. | Distribution is highly mobile; adults’ northward summer migration is stronger during El Niño. |
| U.S. management status | Most West Coast fisheries have been closed since 2015 after biomass fell below the harvest-control-rule cutoff. | 2023 assessment: not overfished and not subject to overfishing, but abundance is historically low. |
| What a short-term catch change can mean | A local landing increase may reflect concentration and catchability, not improved recruitment. | More or fewer landings at a port may primarily reflect movement and fleet access. |
| Main supply exposure | Pacific sardines are exported largely for human-consumption canning. | Pacific mackerel enter human-consumption markets in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Baltic region. |
How regional biology reaches canned-food shelves
Processors buy fish where vessels can legally and economically land them. If El Niño shifts a stock away from a port, a cannery may face higher logistics costs or reduced deliveries even if fish are available elsewhere. International buyers can also redirect orders between regions, so a local shortage and a global shortage are not the same event.
Pacific sardines’ major outlet is human-consumption canning. Pacific mackerel are also sold as processed human food across several international markets. This trade structure transmits changes in abundance, migration, fishing access and processing capacity to canned products. It does not allow a precise consumer-price calculation from ocean temperature alone.
Rank #3
- CLASSIC WILD-CAUGHT SARDINES: Affordable and wild-caught sardines in soybean oil, perfect for simple, flavorful meals or snacks.
- GOOD SOURCE OF PROTEIN: Each 3.75 oz can contains 14g of protein, offering a nutritious addition to your diet. Bulk case contains twelve cans.
- NATURALLY NUTRITIOUS: Gluten Free, Keto & Paleo Friendly, Kosher Certified. A high-protein, no-carb option that supports satiety on a GLP-1 regimen.
- PANTRY STAPLE, ANY TIME: Brunswick sardines are shelf-stable and ready to enjoy with no prep, no thawing, and no refrigeration required. Keep your pantry stocked for quality protein whenever the moment calls.
- A CATCH FOR SEAFOOD FANS: Perfect straight from the can, on toast or crackers, or as a flavorful ingredient to your favorite pasta, pizza, and salad recipes.
Will canned sardines or mackerel become more expensive?
No authoritative source in the available evidence gives a single global price or shortage forecast. Retail outcomes depend on several variables that can move in opposite directions:
- Whether a stock’s biomass and recruitment improve or deteriorate over multiple seasons.
- Where fish concentrate relative to fleets, ports and canneries.
- Harvest limits, closures and other management decisions.
- Fuel, labor, freight, tin, packaging and energy costs.
- Inventory levels and substitution among suppliers and species.
El Niño can therefore create price pressure in one market without producing a worldwide shortage. A brief run of abundant landings could also coexist with weak future supply if the fish were merely easier to catch.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Can fishers switch from sardines to mackerel?
Some vessels may be able to target another small pelagic species, but switching is not automatic. The two fisheries differ in seasonal distribution, permitted gear, quotas, port infrastructure, buyer specifications and stock assessments. A sardine closure cannot simply be replaced by unlimited mackerel effort; managers must apply the rules for the mackerel stock and account for bycatch and local concentration.
El Niño can also move mackerel north while sardine habitat shifts on a different schedule. A vessel may have the equipment to catch both species yet lack an economical route to the fish or a nearby processor willing to buy them. Diversification can reduce a business’s exposure, but it does not remove the ecological and regulatory constraints.
Rank #4
- DELICIOUS SARDINES IN WATER- Meaty, and scale-free, WIld Planet's Wild Sardines in Water with No Salt Added are delicious, meaty, and tender
- CONVENIENCE AND QUALITY- With a convenient pull tab, enjoy these sardines at home or on-the-go for a great-tasting, satisfying snack or healthy lunch
- NUTRITIONAL POWERHOUSES- One 3 oz serving contains 18 g of clean protein, 1,800 mg of EPA & DHA Omega 3s and 70% of your daily value of vitamin D
- SCALE-FREE- Our Wild Sardines in Water contain scale-free skin and bones and are Non-GMO verified, gluten-free, and OU Kosher Pareve
- SUSTAINABLY SOURCED- We use sustainable and selective harvesting methods to catch our sardines to help eliminate bycatch. From the North Pacific
Are Pacific sardines and mackerel overfished?
The answer differs by species and by the stock definition used by managers:
- Pacific sardine: The documented U.S. concern is biomass below the harvest-control-rule cutoff and the resulting closure of most West Coast fisheries since 2015. The evidence does not justify labeling every Pacific sardine population worldwide as overfished.
- Pacific mackerel: NOAA’s 2023 assessment classified the stock as not overfished and not subject to overfishing, while also recording historically low abundance linked to oceanographic conditions.
Product labels matter because “mackerel” can refer to multiple species and stocks with different management histories. The species name and origin area provide more information than the generic word on the front of a package.
What to watch in the next fishing years
The most useful indicators are not a single El Niño headline or one busy landing season. Watch for updated biomass estimates, recruitment surveys, habitat and range maps, harvest guidelines and port-level availability. NOAA’s 2025 Pacific mackerel assessment is specifically framed around the 2025–26 and 2026–27 fishing years, while sardine management remains constrained by the biomass cutoff.
Crashes, No Sound, or Screen Glitches?
Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteWindows Errors? Fix Them Before They Spread
Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallThe practical reading is species-specific: El Niño can redistribute fish quickly, but long-term warming and recruitment determine whether future supply is resilient. Sardines currently present the more immediate documented U.S. vulnerability; mackerel present a mobility and access risk despite their not-overfished status.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
