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India could design and assemble a largely indigenous weapon system yet lose its combat capability if one mission-critical chip, software component or algorithm is imported and cannot be obtained, replaced or repaired during a conflict. That is the strategic warning from DRDO, not a claim that every Indian defence platform will fail or that the “last 5%” represents a measured probability.
What DRDO’s “critical 5%” warning means
A Times of India report dated 14 October 2026 quoted B.K. Das, DRDO Director General (Electronics & Communication Systems), saying: “You can’t fight a war with a 95% indigenous system where the critical 5% does not exist.” He also said, “The last square inch of silicon is going to decide the future of warfare.”
Das made the remarks ahead of ESTIC-2026’s thematic session on “Semiconductors and Next-Gen Chips.” His point is about dependency concentration: a small foreign-made part can sit at the decisive point in a radar, missile, electronic-warfare suite, communications system or guidance architecture. If that part is unavailable, the rest of the platform may not deliver its intended capability.
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- Unique function: A specialised processor, sensor interface, power device or memory component may have no qualified substitute.
- Embedded software: A weapon may depend on firmware, an algorithm or design IP that the original supplier controls.
- Qualification barriers: Replacing a chip requires redesign, testing, electromagnetic compatibility checks and military qualification; it is not the same as swapping a consumer component.
- Supply-chain chokepoints: A single overseas fabrication process, material, design tool or packaging service can interrupt production even when final assembly occurs in India.
The 95%-versus-5% formulation is a strategic argument, not a statistical estimate of failure probability. The evidence supports a plausible conflict vulnerability when an imported item is mission-critical; it does not establish that any particular DRDO system will fail.
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How a foreign chip could become a wartime vulnerability
Export controls and sanctions
A supplier’s government could restrict shipments, licenses, technical support or access to design software. Even a commercially available component may become difficult to source once it is classified as strategically sensitive.
Blockade, shipping disruption or production loss
Conflict can interrupt sea routes, insurance, logistics hubs or the operation of a foreign factory. A domestic assembly line cannot continue indefinitely if replenishment depends on one overseas source.
Obsolescence and counterfeit risk
When a part is discontinued, emergency purchases from brokers can introduce counterfeit or inconsistent components. Defence systems need traceability and repeatable performance, so an apparently identical replacement still requires verification.
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Repair and sustainment
Dependence can appear after deployment. If a repair depot lacks the chip, programming tools or manufacturer documentation, a damaged system may remain unavailable even when the airframe, vehicle or launcher is intact.
India’s semiconductor starting point
NITI Aayog’s Future of India’s Semiconductor Industry roadmap, published in May 2026, describes the country’s import exposure as a “critical strategic vulnerability.” It estimates that 90–95% of India’s semiconductor demand is met through imports. The roadmap also says India spent almost USD 150 billion importing crucial semiconductor products during FY17–FY25.
| Indicator | Published figure | Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Current import dependence | 90–95% | Share of India’s semiconductor demand, NITI Aayog, May 2026 |
| Cumulative imports | Almost USD 150 billion | Crucial semiconductor products imported during FY17–FY25, NITI Aayog |
| Domestic self-sufficiency target | 15–25% by 2030 | Target in the NITI Aayog roadmap |
| Domestic self-sufficiency target | 35–50% by 2035 | Target in the NITI Aayog roadmap |
These targets indicate a staged approach rather than immediate autarky. Reducing the most dangerous dependencies first can matter more for defence readiness than attempting to manufacture every class of advanced chip domestically.
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What India has formally begun
The defence-semiconductor policy process
On 13 December 2024, HQ Integrated Defence Staff held a one-day workshop titled “Energizing Semiconductor Ecosystem to Make India Self-Reliant in IC Chip Manufacturing.” Vice Admiral Sanjay Vatsayan called for an “Indian Defence Semiconductor Policy.” HQ IDS, the armed services, DRDO, the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, academia and private industry participated.
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The stated workstream covered materials and device fabrication, along with a roadmap for self-reliant design, development and manufacture of integrated-circuit chips for military applications. The PIB release said that manufacturing capability reduces dependence on foreign suppliers and limits the risk of supply-chain disruption in an interconnected global economy.
Manufacturing and design capacity approved in 2026
A 2026 PIB note reports 12 approved semiconductor manufacturing units with cumulative investment above Rs 1.64 lakh crore. The approvals include one silicon fab, one silicon-carbide fab, one gallium-nitride micro-LED display fab and nine assembly, testing, marking and packaging (ATMP) or outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) units.
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The same note reports 24 approved chip-design projects worth about Rs 900 crore, more than 300 chip designs developed through those projects, and access to advanced design tools for more than 1 lakh engineers from 500 organisations. It says India employs nearly 20% of the global semiconductor chip-design workforce.
Design strength is valuable, but it is not the same as controlling fabrication, packaging, testing, qualification and secure supply. The government also notes that no single country controls the entire semiconductor value chain. Its policy therefore combines trusted partnerships with stronger domestic capacity.
What genuine defence chip self-reliance requires
| Capability test | Question decision-makers must answer |
|---|---|
| Conflict availability | Can the armed forces obtain, replace and repair the part during sanctions, blockade or disrupted shipping? |
| Criticality concentration | Would one imported chip, algorithm, design-IP block or manufacturing input disable an otherwise indigenous system? |
| Capability depth | Does India control only the design, or also fabrication, packaging, testing, qualification and secure supply? |
| Scale and reliability | Can domestic facilities produce enough qualified parts at the quality and volume required by the services? |
| Partnership resilience | Are dependencies diversified through trusted partners, or does one foreign supplier remain a single-source chokepoint? |
Priority areas before cutting-edge general-purpose processors
India can first secure mature-node logic, specialty analog and mixed-signal devices, compound semiconductors such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride, advanced packaging and strategically important designs. Those categories can remove high-consequence bottlenecks even while the country continues to use international suppliers for other components.
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Can India fight a future war while imports remain high?
There is no responsible yes-or-no answer based on the available figures. India’s armed forces can operate systems built from a mixture of domestic, allied and commercial technologies, but operational resilience depends on which imported items are indispensable, how many qualified alternatives exist and whether spares and technical support are secured for the duration of a crisis.
DRDO’s institutional mission is self-reliance in critical defence technologies and systems. Its organisation describes indigenous development and production of Agni and Prithvi missiles, Tejas, Pinaka, Akash, radars and electronic-warfare systems as examples of that effort. The semiconductor issue is the last-mile test of the same mission: domestic design and assembly must be matched by dependable access to the parts and processes that determine performance.
India is therefore making measurable progress in capacity, design projects and policy coordination, while still starting from 90–95% import dependence. Strategic autonomy in this context means assured access to the most sensitive components, domestic control of critical designs and credible repair and replacement routes—not a claim that every material, machine or advanced chip is already made inside the country.
What to watch next
- An Indian Defence Semiconductor Policy with defined military priorities and qualification standards.
- Evidence that approved fabs and ATMP/OSAT plants are producing defence-qualified parts, not only commercial output.
- Domestic ownership of critical design IP, firmware, algorithms and verification tools.
- Multiple qualified sources and stockpiles for components identified as wartime chokepoints.
- Testing, failure-analysis and repair capabilities that allow the services to sustain systems without the original foreign supplier.
Until those measures cover the complete chain from design through dependable wartime supply, an imported “last square inch of silicon” can remain the point at which an otherwise indigenous weapon system loses its edge.
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