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Some published atmospheric carbon-capture estimates are probably too low, but the evidence does not support saying every estimate is understated. A 2025 assessment by the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG) says several direct-air-capture (DAC) operating-cost estimates are infeasibly low and puts energy provision alone at $43–97 per tonne of CO2 under its assumptions. Other studies report much wider totals because they use different technologies, energy systems, financing assumptions and cost boundaries.
For a useful comparison, first establish whether a figure covers DAC capture only or DACCS—capture, transport and permanent storage. Those are different products with different bills.
What “atmospheric carbon capture” means
Direct air capture (DAC) uses chemical processes to remove carbon dioxide from ambient air. Fans or passive air-contactors move air across a material that binds CO2; heat, pressure changes or another regeneration step releases a concentrated stream for compression.
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Air contains far less CO2 than a concentrated industrial flue gas. That dilution means a DAC plant must process a very large volume of air and supply substantial low-carbon heat and electricity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) identifies technology design, energy prices, plant configuration and financial assumptions as major cost drivers.
What the strongest current evidence says
IEA benchmark for a plant built today
The IEA’s 2022 Direct Air Capture analysis estimated USD 125–335 per tonne of CO2 captured for a large-scale plant built at that time. This is a capture-cost range, not automatically a full DACCS removal price. The report also said deployment and innovation could bring capture costs below USD 100/tCO2 in favorable conditions. That is a conditional pathway, not a cost observed across projects.
IEAGHG’s warning about operating-cost estimates
IEAGHG’s 2025 report, The Value of Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage, concludes that “There is significant uncertainty in current cost estimates of direct air capture technologies.” It specifically finds that some published operating-cost estimates are infeasibly low. Its modeled requirement for energy provision alone is $43–97/tCO2.
The energy range is not a complete DAC or DACCS cost. It is a floor for one component under the report’s assumptions. A project still has to pay for contactors, sorbent or solvent, buildings, controls, labor, maintenance, CO2 conditioning, financing and, for DACCS, transport and storage.
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UK DACCS scenarios from CO2RE and ERM
A 2025 update from CO2RE and ERM illustrates how much technology and boundary choices change the result. Its UK-oriented modeled DACCS costs include transport-and-storage assumptions and show low-to-high scenarios with a medium value in parentheses:
| DACCS configuration | 2030 modeled range | 2030 medium value | 2050 modeled range | 2050 medium value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquid-solvent DAC (L-DAC) | £325–578/tCO2 | £440/tCO2 | £169–405/tCO2 | £284/tCO2 |
| Solid-sorbent DAC (S-DAC) | £636–842/tCO2 | £735/tCO2 | £259–489/tCO2 | £353/tCO2 |
These are modeled UK scenarios, not observed market prices or a universal tariff. In the comparison, solid-sorbent systems cost more largely because of higher capital expenditure and non-fuel operating expenditure, including capture chemicals. Learning, scale and cheaper energy reduce the modeled 2050 values, but the ranges remain wide.
Why estimates can look unrealistically cheap
Energy is easy to undercount
DAC needs both electricity and heat. An estimate that prices only the electricity used by fans and pumps can miss the thermal energy needed to regenerate a solvent or sorbent. It may also assume an ideal heat source, ignore conversion losses or use an energy price that is unavailable at the proposed site. IEAGHG’s $43–97/tCO2 energy-only range shows why a very small total operating-cost claim deserves scrutiny.
Capture cost is not removal cost
A capture-only model can stop at a concentrated CO2 stream at the plant gate. Permanent removal requires dehydration and compression, a pipeline, ship or other transport, an injection well, monitoring and verification, and long-term stewardship. Adding those stages can materially increase the cost per verified tonne.
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Capital and finance assumptions change the denominator
Two models can use the same chemical process and still produce different prices. Scale, construction costs, plant utilization, debt interest, discount rate, asset life and contingency all affect annualized cost. A high-utilization plant spreads fixed costs over more tonnes; a plant curtailed by intermittent energy does not.
Future learning is not today’s price
Projected cost reductions often assume standardized modules, larger factories, better contactors and many years of deployment. Those assumptions may be reasonable for a scenario, but they should not be read as evidence that a first-of-a-kind facility can operate at the projected mature cost.
The boundaries behind every DAC number
Before comparing estimates, check exactly what the numerator and denominator include. IEAGHG’s system-scale analysis notes that its modeled totals omit CO2 transport and storage, measurement, reporting and verification (MRV), permitting and infrastructure buildout. A result from that study therefore cannot be compared directly with a DACCS result that includes those items.
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CO2RE and ERM’s figures are explicitly DACCS scenarios, so their transport-and-storage assumptions make them broader than a capture-only figure. The IEA’s USD 125–335 range is for captured CO2; it is not a like-for-like substitute for the UK DACCS values.
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IEAGHG also modeled a cumulative $3.3–9.2 trillion system cost for a scenario deploying 1 gigatonne of DAC capacity per year over 2020–2100. This is scenario modeling, not a forecast or a complete full-chain bill: the report says the system estimates exclude transport and storage, MRV, permitting and supporting infrastructure.
How to compare two DAC cost estimates correctly
- Name the technology. Identify liquid solvent, solid sorbent or another configuration. Do not compare an L-DAC figure with an S-DAC figure as if the equipment were interchangeable.
- Record the geography and energy system. Note local electricity and heat prices, the heat source and the carbon intensity of that energy. A low-cost, low-carbon heat resource can change the result substantially.
- Check the project assumptions. Capture capacity, plant utilization, capital cost, financing terms, operating life and technology-learning assumptions should be visible.
- Draw the system boundary. Mark whether the value is capture only or DACCS, and whether compression, transport, storage, MRV, permitting and new infrastructure are included.
- Align the date and currency. Distinguish the study year from the modeled operating year. Keep US dollars and pounds separate unless a stated exchange-rate and inflation basis is provided.
- Read the range, not only the midpoint. A medium scenario is one modeled case. The low and high cases show how sensitive the estimate is to uncertain inputs.
What drives the gap between liquid solvents and solid sorbents?
Liquid-solvent systems
Liquid-solvent DAC circulates a chemical solution through contactors. Regeneration generally requires substantial heat, so the availability, price and carbon intensity of that heat are central. The CO2RE/ERM 2030 medium estimate of £440/tCO2 includes the rest of the DACCS chain in its UK scenario.
Solid-sorbent systems
Solid-sorbent DAC uses a coated or porous material that adsorbs CO2. Different designs regenerate with heat, vacuum or a combination. In the CO2RE/ERM comparison, the 2030 medium value is £735/tCO2, with higher CAPEX and non-fuel OPEX—particularly capture chemicals—driving much of the difference from liquid solvent. That comparison is scenario-specific; it does not prove that every solid-sorbent plant will cost more than every liquid-solvent plant.
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- Calling one number “the DAC cost.” There is no universal price independent of design, location, energy and finance.
- Presenting energy cost as total cost. The $43–97/tCO2 IEAGHG range covers energy provision only.
- Mixing capture and storage. A capture-only estimate cannot stand in for a verified permanent removal cost.
- Ignoring currency and year. USD 125–335 from a 2022 IEA benchmark and £440 from a 2030 UK scenario answer different questions.
- Treating a modeled future value as a current quotation. The 2050 CO2RE/ERM values depend on assumed learning and deployment.
- Importing point-source CCS figures. The Congressional Budget Office’s 2023 discussion is useful for explaining how engineering and economic assumptions create variation, but its cited capture-cost examples are primarily for point-source CCS and should not be relabeled as DAC costs.
What would make a DAC estimate credible?
A decision-grade estimate should disclose the full bill of materials and the conditions behind each input. At minimum, look for:
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- the capture process, sorbent or solvent, contactor design and regeneration method;
- electricity and heat consumption stated per tonne of CO2, with source and carbon intensity;
- plant capacity, utilization, degradation, replacement intervals and expected operating life;
- separate CAPEX, fixed OPEX, variable OPEX and energy costs;
- financing assumptions, discount rate, contingency and construction schedule;
- CO2 compression, transport route, storage reservoir, monitoring and liability arrangements;
- MRV and permitting costs, plus any new grid, heat or pipeline infrastructure;
- the currency year, geographic scope and whether a value is a low, medium or high scenario.
Without those details, a low headline figure may simply be using a narrower boundary or more favorable assumptions than a seemingly expensive estimate.
What the evidence means for policy and buyers of removals
For governments and companies purchasing removals, the practical issue is not finding a single “true” DAC price. It is comparing proposals on identical accounting rules. Contracts should state whether payment is for captured CO2 or verified, permanently stored CO2, who pays for transport and storage, what happens if the plant underperforms, and how MRV is audited.
Energy sourcing also matters beyond price. A DAC plant powered by high-carbon electricity can have a much smaller net-removal benefit than its gross capture number suggests. Cost and climate performance therefore need to be evaluated together, with the energy system and permanence boundary visible.
The 2025 IEAGHG finding supports treating unusually low operating-cost claims as a warning sign, not rejecting DAC outright. The IEA’s lower-cost pathway remains possible under favorable conditions, while the CO2RE/ERM ranges show how expensive full DACCS can remain in modeled deployments. Both statements can be true because they describe different technologies, years, geographies and cost boundaries.
Bottom line
Atmospheric carbon-capture costs are likely underestimated in some published analyses, especially when energy, capital, or downstream removal services are omitted. But “underestimated” is not a universal verdict. The defensible conclusion is narrower: use the IEA’s USD 125–335/tCO2 capture benchmark as an older reference, treat IEAGHG’s $43–97/tCO2 energy requirement as a component floor, and compare newer DACCS estimates only after aligning technology, location, year, currency and system boundary.
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