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Defence and security satellite-service revenue is forecast to exceed $22.6 billion by 2035, according to Novaspace’s September 2026 Satellite Communications for Defense and Security, 2nd Edition. The “$23 billion” headline is a rounded version of that projection. The same forecast puts global defence satcom demand above 7.5 Tbps by 2035.
Those figures describe a commercial satellite-service market and a capacity requirement—not total military communications spending, the value of satellite hardware, or a confirmed contract backlog. The growth case is centred on non-geostationary-orbit (NGSO) constellations and multi-orbit networks that can provide mobile, lower-latency and more resilient connectivity alongside geostationary-orbit (GEO) systems.
What the $23 billion defence satcom forecast actually measures
Novaspace forecasts more than $22.6 billion in commercial satellite-service revenue for defence and security by 2035. “Commercial” refers to services sold by satellite operators and service providers, including capacity and connectivity used by defence and security customers. It is not a forecast of every dollar governments will spend on communications.
The report also covers commercial operator networks and dedicated military satellite systems. However, the $22.6 billion headline should not be read as the replacement cost or market value of all government-owned spacecraft. It does not automatically include launch vehicles, satellite manufacturing, user terminals, network equipment, personnel, cyber-security programmes or broader defence procurement unless those activities are represented in the satellite-service revenue category.
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A second number measures a different thing: Novaspace expects worldwide defence satcom demand to exceed 7.5 terabits per second (Tbps) in 2035. Tbps expresses aggregate throughput capacity required by users. It is not a price, a revenue total or proof that capacity has already been ordered.
| Measure | Novaspace forecast | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial defence and security satellite-service revenue | More than $22.6 billion by 2035 | Market revenue from satellite services; the rounded headline is “$23 billion” |
| Global defence satcom demand | More than 7.5 Tbps by 2035 | Required aggregate connectivity throughput, not spending |
| NGSO service revenue | $21.3 billion by 2035 | Projected NGSO service segment, supported by a 34% CAGR |
| GEO service revenue | $2.3 billion in 2025, falling to $1.3 billion in 2035 | Revenue declines even as GEO capacity demand triples |
All figures are projections published by Novaspace in 2026. They should be treated as estimates of a future market rather than realised results.
Why NGSO and multi-orbit networks drive the growth
Novaspace identifies next-generation NGSO constellations and multi-orbit connectivity as the main expansion engines. NGSO satellites operate below geostationary altitude and can provide shorter signal paths, frequent satellite handovers and coverage patterns suited to moving users. A network that combines NGSO with GEO can match each orbit to a mission’s coverage, latency, continuity and capacity requirements.
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Defence users increasingly need to move large volumes of data from dispersed forces, sensors and uncrewed platforms. Real-time intelligence feeds, tactical command networks and remote control links can be constrained by latency or by a single point of failure. NGSO services offer an additional path, while multi-orbit routing allows traffic to be shifted when a particular satellite, beam, gateway or frequency is unavailable.
“The growing adoption of distributed satcom architectures is rapidly enhancing military satcom resilience against disruption, jamming, and kinetic attacks.”
— Santiago Perez, Senior Manager, Novaspace, 2026
Distributed architecture does not mean that every mission should abandon GEO. It means planners can combine different orbits, terrestrial links and, where appropriate, dedicated military systems instead of designing around one layer. That architectural change is the reason a falling GEO revenue line can coexist with rising overall demand.
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The two orbit classes have different economics and operating characteristics. The figures below describe the direction of the Novaspace forecast and the practical trade-offs that determine how defence networks are built.
| Decision factor | NGSO | GEO |
|---|---|---|
| 2035 service-revenue outlook | $21.3 billion projected; 34% CAGR cited by Novaspace | Declines from $2.3 billion in 2025 to $1.3 billion in 2035 |
| Capacity demand | Primary source of incremental growth in the forecast | Capacity demand is still expected to triple by 2035 |
| Latency | Generally lower because satellites are closer to Earth | Generally higher because of geostationary altitude |
| Mobility and coverage | Well suited to moving users and changing coverage footprints, with handovers between satellites | Persistent view of a large region from one spacecraft; terminals can avoid frequent satellite handovers |
| Resilience | Many satellites and paths can distribute traffic, although gateways and spectrum remain dependencies | A mature, persistent layer that can provide continuity and wide-area coverage |
| Likely architectural role | High-throughput, lower-latency and mobile links within a hybrid network | Baseline, broadcast, wide-area and complementary capacity in a multi-orbit design |
Revenue and demand should not be confused. GEO service revenue is projected to shrink, but a threefold increase in GEO capacity demand means GEO still has an important role. Lower prices, changing service mixes or migration of some value to NGSO can reduce revenue even while customers continue to consume more GEO capacity.
Commercial networks and dedicated military systems are different layers
Commercial operator networks sell capacity or managed connectivity to government customers. They can add capacity quickly, offer geographically diverse options and let agencies buy a service rather than own every spacecraft. Contract terms, priority arrangements, gateways, terminals and the provider’s security accreditation determine what a particular mission can use.
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Dedicated military satellite systems are designed, funded and controlled for government missions. They can provide protected waveforms, sovereign control, specialised coverage or assured access that a commercial service may not offer. They also require long development cycles and substantial public investment.
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A defence satcom portfolio can use both. Commercial capacity may handle routine or surge traffic, while dedicated systems carry especially sensitive or mission-critical links. Multi-orbit procurement can further separate services by latency, coverage, anti-jam requirements and continuity objectives. The $22.6 billion forecast is about commercial satellite-service revenue; it should not be added to the full cost of dedicated military programmes to produce a total defence-space budget.
Which countries dominate projected demand?
Novaspace expects the United States to account for more than 50% of global defence satcom demand and 48% of revenues through 2035. China is projected to represent roughly 30% of both demand and revenues. Together, those two markets account for most of the forecast, leaving a smaller share for all other countries.
| Market | Share of global demand through 2035 | Share of global revenue through 2035 |
|---|---|---|
| United States | More than 50% | 48% |
| China | About 30% | About 30% |
| All other countries | Remainder | Remainder |
These are forecast shares, not annual budget allocations. “Through 2035” describes Novaspace’s outlook period; it does not mean that each year will have the same percentage. Regional demand can change with operational commitments, domestic programmes, export controls, spectrum policy and the availability of commercial coverage.
What is creating the demand for more capacity?
Real-time data and intelligence
Modern forces collect imagery, video, telemetry and other sensor data from widely separated locations. Moving those feeds to commanders or processing centres requires more sustained throughput than occasional voice or low-rate messaging. The 7.5-Tbps projection reflects the cumulative effect of many users and applications, not one giant link.
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Command networks need connectivity that remains usable as units move, links change and traffic priorities shift. A multi-orbit service can assign traffic to different paths according to latency, availability and mission priority, provided terminals and network controls support those handovers.
Remote and uncrewed platforms
Uncrewed aircraft, maritime systems and other remote platforms need command, control and payload links over long distances. Satcom can extend beyond terrestrial networks, but the engineering choice depends on the platform’s antenna, power, data rate, coverage and tolerance for delay or interruption.
Resilience against disruption
Jamming, physical attacks, cyber incidents, gateway outages and local obstructions can interrupt a single path. Distributed architectures spread connectivity across satellites, orbits, gateways and terrestrial backhaul. They do not make a network invulnerable: a shared terminal, spectrum band or ground segment can still be a common failure point.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.“What we’re witnessing is not simply a shift in satellite capacity demand. This is a fundamental evolution in military communications.”
Special offer. See more information about Outbyte and uninstall instructions. Please review EULA and Privacy policy.— Santiago Perez, Senior Manager, Novaspace, 2026
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How to interpret the 34% NGSO CAGR
Novaspace cites a 34% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) supporting projected NGSO service revenue of $21.3 billion in 2035. CAGR is a smoothed growth measure: it describes the constant annual rate that would connect a starting value with an ending value over the period. It does not mean NGSO revenue will rise by exactly 34% every calendar year, nor does the public release establish the year-by-year path.
The NGSO figure is also a segment forecast, while $22.6 billion is the total commercial defence and security satellite-service forecast. Readers should not add $21.3 billion to $22.6 billion; the NGSO amount is part of the overall market, not an additional market.
What the 7.5-Tbps outlook means for network planners
Throughput demand is a sizing problem. A government or operator translating the forecast into a programme must determine where traffic originates, when peaks occur, how much is mission-critical and which links can tolerate delay or interruption.
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- Map missions to traffic. Separate command and control, intelligence feeds, logistics, welfare and administrative traffic. Record average and peak rates rather than relying on a single headline bandwidth number.
- Set performance thresholds. Define acceptable latency, packet loss, availability, restoration time and mobility for each mission. A high-throughput link that fails the latency or continuity requirement is not an adequate substitute.
- Assign an orbit and path. Use NGSO where lower latency, mobility or scalable capacity matters; retain GEO or dedicated systems where persistent regional coverage, broadcast or assured access is more valuable.
- Design for degraded operation. Specify how traffic is prioritised when a satellite, gateway, terminal or spectrum segment is unavailable. Test the fallback path rather than treating resilience as a marketing description.
- Check the ground segment. Terminals, antennas, power, gateways, terrestrial backhaul, encryption and network-management systems can limit an otherwise sufficient space segment.
- Measure service, not just capacity. Contracts should define usable availability, restoration targets, security controls and geographic coverage in addition to nominal gigabits per second.
This process converts a global forecast into a mission-specific requirement. It also prevents a common error: buying capacity in aggregate while leaving a bottleneck at the terminal, gateway or backhaul layer.
Why GEO still matters even as its revenue falls
The forecast’s GEO numbers are easy to misread. Service revenue is projected to decline from $2.3 billion in 2025 to $1.3 billion in 2035, yet GEO capacity demand is expected to triple. Several outcomes can coexist: more bits can be delivered at lower prices, customers can shift high-growth applications to NGSO, and GEO can remain the most efficient option for persistent wide-area or broadcast traffic.
For defence organisations, this supports a hybrid rather than an either-or decision. GEO can provide a stable coverage layer and complement the dynamic capacity of NGSO. The right mix depends on mission geography, terminal design, protection requirements, traffic patterns and the ability to switch providers or orbits during an outage.
Risks and limits of the 2035 projection
The $22.6 billion number is a forecast published in September 2026, not an observed result. The public release does not provide a full model appendix or scenario-sensitivity analysis. That means readers cannot infer a precise probability, confidence interval or alternative high-and-low case from the headline alone.
Actual outcomes could differ if constellation deployment, launch availability, spectrum access, regulation, procurement schedules, security accreditation, terminal production or geopolitical conditions change. Adoption can also move unevenly: one large programme may create a temporary spike, while delays can push revenue into later years. The same uncertainties apply to the 7.5-Tbps demand estimate.
Use the figures as strategic scale indicators. For budgeting, compare the Novaspace outlook with country-specific appropriations, signed service agreements and technical capacity plans when those primary documents are available. Do not describe the projection as a government budget, a guaranteed contract total or realised 2035 revenue.
What the market outlook means
Defence satcom is moving toward a layered architecture in which NGSO supplies much of the growth, GEO remains a valuable coverage and continuity layer, and dedicated military systems provide sovereign or protected capabilities. Novaspace’s forecast puts the commercial service opportunity above $22.6 billion and global demand above 7.5 Tbps by 2035, with the United States leading and China accounting for the next largest share. The practical question for each organisation is not whether one orbit wins, but how to combine services and systems so that capacity, latency and resilience match the mission.
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