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A Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research analysis published in Nature Sustainability on 15 October 2026 finds that 19 countries highly exposed to an oil, gas and coal phaseout together produce only 6% of global economic output. Most of the world economy is in a moderate-impact group, while other countries can gain from avoided climate damage, renewable power and carbon storage.
What the 6% figure means
The 6% is the combined share of global economic output produced by the 19 countries whose existing fossil-fuel assets and revenues are most vulnerable to falling demand. It is not a forecast that the world economy will lose 6%, nor does it measure the amount of revenue those countries will forfeit.
The study evaluates 169 countries and maps how climate policy could change the value of national assets by the end of this century. Its results depend on the ambition of climate policy: a faster, more comprehensive transition changes fossil-fuel demand, avoided climate damages, renewable-energy investment and the value of land that stores carbon.
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The five groups identified by the analysis
| Country cluster | Number of countries | Main exposure or opportunity | Output context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fossil-fuel-dependent economies | 19 | Lower oil, gas and coal demand can reduce export income and the value of fossil-fuel infrastructure. | 6% of global output |
| Countries facing severe climate damages | 51 | Rapid mitigation protects economies from particularly severe physical climate impacts. | Part of three beneficiary clusters that together account for 13% of output |
| High renewable-energy potential | 13 | Strong solar or wind resources can support new electricity generation and related investment. | Part of the same three-cluster total of 13% |
| High carbon-sequestration capacity | 17 | Forests and managed natural areas can gain value by absorbing and storing carbon dioxide. | Part of the same three-cluster total of 13% |
| Moderate-impact economies | 69 | These economies face mixed asset effects, with avoided climate damage potentially outweighing losses in some fossil-related sectors. | 81% of global output |
Fossil-fuel-dependent economies
This is the politically exposed group. A phaseout can shrink royalties, export receipts and the value of reserves and production equipment. Those pressures can create incentives for governments to resist ambitious climate measures, especially where public budgets and employment depend heavily on fossil fuels.
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Countries facing severe climate damages
For these countries, the principal economic benefit of mitigation is defensive: reducing warming avoids damage to infrastructure, agriculture, health and other productive assets. Their interest in faster action comes less from selling new energy commodities than from limiting losses that would otherwise accumulate.
Countries with high renewable potential
The study identifies 13 countries, mostly in Africa, where solar and wind resources could become economically valuable as electricity systems decarbonize. Public summaries of the paper do not provide the individual country names, so the finding should not be read as a ranking of particular African states.
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Countries with high carbon-sequestration capacity
In 17 countries, natural forests or managed land can gain importance as assets that remove and store carbon dioxide. That potential creates an economic stake in conservation and land management, provided that climate policy and finance reward durable storage.
Moderate-impact economies
The European Union, China and the United States are among the 69 economies in this category. Their percentage gain or loss may be less dramatic than in the most exposed groups, but their large economic scale means that even modest percentage changes can translate into substantial absolute effects. Avoided climate damage can therefore matter more in total value than the decline of particular fossil-fuel assets.
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How the study measures climate-policy effects
The analysis follows four channels through which mitigation changes national wealth:
- Fossil-fuel demand: lower consumption can reduce the income and asset value associated with oil, gas and coal.
- Avoided physical damage: stronger mitigation limits climate-related losses that would otherwise affect economies.
- Renewable resources: favorable solar and wind conditions can support new generation capacity and investment.
- Carbon storage: forests and managed natural areas can become more valuable for absorbing and retaining carbon dioxide.
Lead author Guanna Pan said the data can map how countries may gain or lose from different aspects of decarbonization by the end of the century, depending on policy ambition. The approach therefore treats climate policy as a broad revaluation of national capital, not simply as a cost imposed on fossil-fuel suppliers.
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Why economic interests diverge
A country can lose from one channel and gain from another. Falling fossil-fuel revenue is concentrated in a relatively small group, while avoided climate damage is spread across exposed economies and can be especially large in absolute terms for major economies. Renewable generation and carbon storage add further sources of potential value.
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That distinction also explains why the 6% figure does not imply that the vulnerable countries are unimportant. Their combined output is small compared with the global economy, but the fiscal and political consequences of stranded assets can be large within each country. Transition assistance may be necessary even when the global aggregate effect is positive.
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What the findings imply for climate diplomacy
The authors point to package deals that combine climate concessions with trade access, research and development cooperation or financial transfers. Such arrangements could help countries exposed to fossil-fuel losses while allowing countries with renewable or carbon-storage advantages to invest in those opportunities.
The analysis also cautions against treating “the developing world” or “advanced economies” as a single negotiating bloc. Countries within those broad categories can occupy very different positions depending on fossil-fuel dependence, climate vulnerability, renewable resources and land-based carbon capacity.
What is and is not established by the public findings
The published summaries establish the size of each cluster and the combined output shares, but they do not list every country in the 19-country vulnerable group or provide country-by-country output values. They support a map of differing economic interests, not a precise national forecast of future GDP or a guarantee that any country will capture a particular renewable or carbon-storage opportunity.
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