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China has become a net chicken exporter, shipping about $2.6 billion in chicken products in 2025—almost twice its 2020 value—while dairy exports are on course to reach $600 million in 2026. The change reflects a sharp mismatch between expanded farm capacity and softer domestic demand, especially for pork. Lower prices are winning buyers, but food-safety scrutiny, origin-label rules and anti-dumping cases could determine how far the export push goes.
What changed in China’s food trade
Customs data cited in a 2026 report show China became a net exporter of chicken and shipped approximately $2.6 billion of chicken products last year. That is almost double the level recorded in 2020. Dairy exports are also growing rapidly: trade data cited by Reuters indicate they are on track for about $600 million in 2026, twice the value of three years earlier.
This is not a claim that every Chinese food category has a surplus. Agriculture and food still recorded a trade deficit of just over $100 billion in the prior year, although the gap was narrowing. The export growth is concentrated in categories where producers added capacity and can compete on processing cost, including poultry, prepared chicken and selected dairy products.
Why producers have excess chicken to sell
Capacity expanded after the African swine-fever shock
After the 2018 African swine-fever outbreak reduced China’s pork supply, producers expanded farms, slaughterhouses and processing lines. The Covid-19 period reinforced government policies focused on food security and domestic control of meat supplies. Those investments left the industry with larger facilities and more birds even after the emergency had passed.
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Domestic diets are shifting
Official data and state media cited in the 2026 report show pork consumption fell 13% from its 2023 peak. Chicken intake, by contrast, rose more than 50% per person during the decade through 2024. Urban consumers have been moving away from fatty pork, while poultry is marketed as a relatively leaner and more convenient protein.
Production continued reaching new highs despite an economic slowdown, weak consumer demand and a shrinking population. When domestic sales cannot absorb that output, large processors have an incentive to place the surplus overseas.
Subsidies lower the pressure on producers
The OECD estimates that subsidies represented about 13% of Chinese agricultural producers’ gross farm receipts in 2022–2024, nearly triple the level seen in the early 2000s. Support does not make every shipment profitable, but it can help companies maintain plants, finance expansion and quote aggressive prices while they build export accounts.
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How Chinese poultry competes on price and speed
| Factor | Chinese supply | Comparison or implication |
|---|---|---|
| Reported price | Breast meat and leg quarters were reported 10%–20% below Brazilian products. | Wintop said its advantage reached about $1,000 per tonne against Brazilian and Thai competitors. |
| Production cycle | Wintop’s birds average 2.5 kg and are slaughtered in under 42 days. | Short cycles support high throughput and rapid replacement of flocks. |
| Processing | Plants produce breasts, nuggets, meatballs, dumplings, marinated chicken and ready meals. | Value-added products can travel beyond the market for whole birds or commodity cuts. |
| Market access | Exports are expanding in Europe, the United Kingdom, Japan, the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere. | Access depends on each market’s approval, testing and labeling rules. |
Wintop Food in Shandong processes about 60 million chickens a year into both basic cuts and prepared foods for more than 20 countries. Exports generated half of its profits last year and are financing a 33-acre expansion. Over a decade, the company increased birds per shed from 20,000 to 120,000.
Wintop general manager Dang Yangyang said international buyers once distrusted Chinese quality, but a price difference of $1,000 per tonne versus Brazilian and Thai products can force a commercial choice. He also said the company is exporting to any countries it can reach because buyers actively seek a significant price advantage.
Sunner is pursuing a different route: more marinated chicken and ready meals rather than only low-priced raw cuts. Its overseas sales rose 42% to $135 million last year, and it is developing local capacity with partners, including in Uzbekistan. That approach can reduce freight exposure and adapt products to local tastes, but it requires more investment and regulatory work.
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Where the exports are gaining ground
Europe and the United Kingdom
Consultancy Gira estimates that China has doubled its share of the European Union’s processed-poultry market to 10% since 2022. Its share of the UK market has tripled to more than 14% over the same period. These figures concern processed poultry, not every poultry import category, and therefore do not mean China supplies one-tenth of all chicken eaten in the EU.
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Asia and emerging markets
Chinese poultry is gaining in Japan while Thailand’s leading position is slipping. Chinese dairy products are competing with New Zealand and European brands in Nigeria and Bangladesh and displacing some Indian and Iranian suppliers in parts of the Middle East. Price-sensitive buyers may accept a newer supplier when the savings are large, particularly for ingredients or processed products rather than premium fresh meat.
Why the boom is creating trade friction
Anti-dumping action
The European Commission opened an anti-dumping investigation into Peking duck imports. It has also imposed duties of 41%–67% on Chinese pea protein. These measures do not automatically apply to chicken or dairy, but they demonstrate how quickly a low-price export surge can trigger formal trade defenses.
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Origin labeling and food-safety expectations
The EU says imported food must meet the same health and safety standards as locally produced food and plans stronger EU-origin poultry labeling from 2027. Clearer labeling may reassure shoppers, but it can also make origin a decisive factor for restaurants, retailers and public procurement.
Gordon Butland of G&S Agriconsultants said exporters need to build lasting confidence in safety, traceability and consistency. Some buyers still prefer Thai poultry because they regard its taste and quality as more consistent. A low invoice price cannot compensate for rejected consignments, uneven specifications or a loss of consumer trust.
Pressure on established exporters
Thai processors are already feeling the effect. Kukrit Arepagorn of the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association said customers increasingly use cheap Chinese chicken as a reference point when negotiating prices. Brazilian suppliers face the same challenge when Chinese offers are 10%–20% lower for comparable breast meat and leg quarters.
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What happens next
China’s export model is likely to develop along two tracks: commodity poultry that competes primarily on cost, and branded or ready-to-eat products that compete on convenience and formulation. Dairy companies are following a similar logic. Yili executive Zhang Yuan said every Chinese livestock company is planning to expand overseas because growth increasingly requires foreign markets.
The outcome will depend on more than production volume. Import approvals, residue testing, cold-chain reliability, local partners, consumer perception and the risk of anti-dumping duties will determine which destinations remain profitable. Beijing-based agribusiness consultant Michael Boddington described the shift from major buyer to emerging exporter as disruptive for the global meat market.
For importing countries, the immediate benefit is cheaper protein and more supplier choice. The policy question is whether those savings endure after investigations, tariffs or labeling requirements. For Chinese producers, overseas sales provide an outlet for excess capacity—but sustained growth requires proving that low prices come with dependable safety, traceability and product consistency.
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