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California may be able to use electricity demand in homes, vehicles and businesses more efficiently—but flexible load is a grid-planning tool, not a promise that every household’s bill will fall. An August 2026 report by GridLab, Kevala and E3 argues that shifting electricity use to the right hours and locations could help control system costs, provided programs pay for verified grid benefits and account for costs borne by customers who do not participate.
What does “flexible load” mean?
Flexible load is electricity use that can respond to a price signal or a dispatch instruction. Instead of consuming power at a fixed time, a device or process changes when it uses electricity, or—in some cases—charges or discharges in response to grid needs.
The report identifies electric vehicles (EVs), distributed batteries, smart appliances and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) as potential resources. Some commercial and industrial processes can also shift use or accept managed interruptions. A device’s presence alone does not make it a useful grid resource: its response has to be available when and where the system needs it.
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California’s grid has to serve demand as it changes through the day while integrating variable renewable generation. Flexible load can move consumption away from scarce, high-cost periods and toward times when clean electricity is more plentiful. If a dependable shift addresses a specific system need, it may also help existing infrastructure serve more customers or defer some generation, transmission or distribution investment.
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The effect is temporal and sometimes local. A shift during a system-wide peak may have a different value from one on a distribution circuit facing a specific constraint. The report also warns that unmanaged electrification can add costs. Benefits therefore depend on actual customer adoption, reliable performance, location and the costs of recruiting, administering and enabling participation—not simply on the number of enrolled devices.
What do the report’s estimates actually show?
The figures below are estimates, modeled scenarios or projections cited in the 2026 report. They are not observed statewide program results or guarantees of household savings.
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| Estimate | Scope and attribution | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| 7,671 MW of virtual power plant technical potential by 2035, with $550 million in annual avoided generation, transmission and distribution costs | The Brattle Group, 2024; study commissioned by GridLab | Directional statewide technical potential based on broad assumptions, not a forecast of achievable program delivery. |
| $6.7 billion to $9.9 billion in avoided distribution upgrade costs | Kevala, 2025 study, updated for the 2026 report; associated with 3.5 GW of additional system peak or net-peak flexibility toward a 7 GW 2030 goal | A broad estimate; value is concentrated in particular locations, and implementation costs are excluded. |
| 2.8 GW lower summer peak demand and $1.8 billion lower cumulative distribution costs through 2040 | PG&E’s 2026 most-aggressive flexible-load scenario; the $1.8 billion is about 7% of its $25.5 billion base-case projected distribution investment | Value depends on targeted enrollment and dispatch on constrained circuits; this is a modeled utility scenario, not a realized saving. |
| 10% of projected light-duty EVs enrolled in vehicle-to-grid programs could supply 30% of the cumulative utility-scale storage procurement target for 2036 | GridLab, Kevala and E3, 2026 scenario | Conditional on the scenario’s vehicle-fleet, charging-power, battery-size and accreditation assumptions; it is not capacity already installed or an earnings estimate for EV owners. |
| 8.4 million light-duty EVs in California by 2035 | California Energy Commission, 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report projection cited by the 2026 report | The report uses a different fleet projection for its 2036 vehicle-to-grid scenario; the two projections should not be combined. |
| $7 billion per year in higher bills for nonparticipating customers by the end of 2024 | California Public Utilities Commission, 2025 estimate of the cost shift associated with California’s Net Energy Metering policies, as cited by the 2026 report | This is the CPUC estimate cited by the report, not a new independent measurement by its authors. |
These estimates describe different things—technical potential, avoided costs, a utility scenario, a policy-related cost shift and a future vehicle scenario—so they should not be added together or read as a single statewide savings forecast.
Which program approaches does the report propose?
The authors group potential approaches by whether they encourage persistent changes in use, pay for a defined system service, or target a local distribution constraint.
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| Pathway | What it does | How value or performance is addressed |
|---|---|---|
| Time-of-use and dynamic rates | Use time-varying prices to encourage customers to shift consumption without requiring an aggregator to dispatch each device. | Can support persistent shifts without counterfactual baselines, but the authors say rates alone are unlikely to capture all potential benefits. |
| Retail pay-for-performance | Compensate customers or aggregations for delivering a system benefit. | The report describes individual-level regression baselines to estimate what consumption would have been without the intervention. |
| Firm capacity | Offer a more predictable load shift to meet a capacity need. | Requires dependable response and clear accountability for whether promised capacity is delivered. |
| Streamlined wholesale-market access | Enable participation by large commercial loads and sophisticated aggregations where wholesale-market participation is appropriate. | Tailor access to the capabilities of those participants rather than applying a one-size-fits-all design. |
| Avoided-distribution-cost programs | Dispatch flexible load in locations with a constrained distribution system. | Target the specific local need that could otherwise require an infrastructure upgrade. |
Across the approaches, the report recommends three design principles: compensation should remain below verified avoided costs; payment should reflect measured performance rather than enrollment alone; and program architecture should be standardized and interoperable. It also calls for accurate, hard-to-game baselines, clear performance accountability and coordination among programs to limit overlap. These are the report authors’ recommendations, not statewide rules adopted by regulators.
How should affordability and fairness be handled?
The report’s authors say new compensation should account for the existing cost shift associated with California’s Net Energy Metering (NEM) and Net Billing Tariff (NBT) arrangements. In their view, a new program should pay only for incremental value not already induced by retail rates, verify what participants deliver and avoid raising costs for other ratepayers.
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The report does not settle whether NEM or NBT customers should be eligible. It presents exclusion, eligibility when verified net benefits are demonstrated, and conditional eligibility after tariff reform as policy options. That leaves an important design question open: how to recognize useful flexibility without paying twice for value or shifting additional costs to nonparticipants.
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The report is about grid and program design, not a guide to choosing equipment or a promise of lower personal bills. A managed Level 2 EV charger can shift charging times, but managed charging is not the same as vehicle-to-grid (V2G): a standard smart charger does not by itself establish that a vehicle can send electricity back to the grid. V2G requires compatible vehicle, charging equipment and program arrangements.
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- SAFETY YOU CAN TRUST WITH UL CERTIFICATION: With Emporia Energy, your home energy monitoring is safe, reliable, and certified. The Emporia Vue is UL Listed, meaning it has met rigorous safety standards for electrical products in the U.S. and Canada. This certification ensures that every component has been thoroughly tested to prevent hazards, such as overheating, short-circuiting, or fire, offering you peace of mind as you manage your home’s energy consumption.
- INSTALLS IN CIRCUIT PANEL of most homes with clamp-on sensors. Supports Single phase, Single-split phase, and 2-wire systems. 3-wire systems; 3-phase, 4-wire Wye systems with earthed (TN or TT) neutral (no-Delta) are supported with an additional 200A sensor (sold separately).
- 24/7 ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING: Automate, manage and control your home's real power anywhere, anytime to prevent costly repairs, conserve energy, and save costs. Monitor solar / net metering. PROTECTED BY A 1-YEAR WARRANTY.
- LOWER YOUR ELECTRIC BILL: Configure settings in the Emporia Energy App to automate energy management for time of use, peak demand, excess solar, and rewards programs. You can even see live reporting and invaluable savings opportunities instantly. Gauge real-time spending and get actionable notifications and automated energy management to help you reduce costs.
- REAL-TIME ENERGY DATA: REQUIRES 2.4 GHz WIFI WITH AN INTERNET CONNECTION to monitor energy use with iPhone / Android / Web app. Vue sensors collect energy data and are accurate from ±2%. The Vue is UL and CE Listed for your safety. 1 second data is only available in the app (when actively open) and retained 3 hours. Minute and hour data are retained in the cloud. 1 minute data is retained 7 days, 1 hour data is retained indefinitely. Export cloud data whenever you want in the app.
- Check your utility’s current tariff and program terms before assuming a device or rate will qualify; the report does not establish present eligibility for a particular customer.
- For any proposed service, look for how performance is measured, what event or schedule is required, and how compensation is determined.
- Confirm vehicle, charger, utility and program compatibility before treating an EV as a V2G resource.
- Do not interpret statewide or utility modeling as a prediction of what an individual home will save or earn.
Who issued the report, and is it a California regulatory decision?
“Unlocking California’s Flexible Load: A Durable Blueprint for Affordability and Reliability” was published in August 2026 by GridLab, Kevala and E3. Its authors are Eric Cutter of E3, Pete Skala of Kevala and Ric O’Connell of GridLab. UC Davis’s Energy and Efficiency Institute convened stakeholder roundtables that informed the work. The report states that its conclusions belong to its authors; the California Public Utilities Commission did not participate in the project and does not endorse them.
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