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Yes—if “bigger threat” means the risk most likely to prevent a country from defending itself. Artificial intelligence can accelerate attacks and improve defensive analysis, but neither benefit is dependable without enough people to configure systems, investigate incidents, govern automated tools and preserve institutional knowledge. The comparison is a policy judgment, not the result of a controlled study proving that workforce losses cause more damage than AI in every country. The dependency is clear: a nation that cannot recruit and retain skilled defenders cannot safely turn AI into resilience.
The workforce gap is already a measurable national-security problem
ISC2 estimated a global cybersecurity workforce of 5.5 million people in 2024 and a shortfall of 4.8 million. The gap was 19% larger than in 2023, so the problem is expanding even while the profession itself grows.
The European Union shows how the shortage reaches public policy and critical infrastructure. A 2025 European Commission communication, using 2024 estimates, put the EU’s cybersecurity need at 1.25 million people, with about 951,000 employed and 299,000 missing. A related Commission staff working document found that the share of full-time-equivalent staff assigned to cybersecurity fell from 11.9% to 11.1% over four years. In the 2024 Eurobarometer cited there, 45% of companies said they lacked qualified cybersecurity candidates and 44% said they received too few applicants.
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Why AI raises the stakes without replacing people
AI changes the speed and scale of cyber operations on both sides. It can help defenders sort alerts, summarize malware behavior and prioritize investigations. The same technology can help attackers produce convincing messages, automate reconnaissance and personalize social engineering at a larger volume.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2025 reported that 66% of organizations expected AI to have a major cybersecurity impact in 2025, yet only 37% had processes to assess an AI tool’s security before deployment. That gap means organizations may adopt systems they cannot adequately test, monitor or shut down.
Nearly half of organizations—47%—named advances in adversarial generative AI as their primary concern, while 42% reported experiencing a successful social-engineering attack in the preceding year. AI is therefore an accelerant, not an independent defense strategy. It increases the consequences of weak preparation.
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“While AI will not replace the cybersecurity workforce, it will be a complementary capability,” the World Economic Forum wrote in its 2025 outlook.
In practice, automation removes repetitive work only when specialists define the right data, tune detection rules, validate outputs and investigate exceptions. Human staff remain accountable for access decisions, incident disclosure, safety-critical changes and the governance of models that may be wrong or manipulated.
Brain drain versus AI: four ways to judge the risk
| Axis | Workforce depletion | AI-driven risk and capability |
|---|---|---|
| Dependency | A shortage directly removes the people needed to secure networks, respond to incidents, evaluate suppliers and govern technology. | AI can be deployed only if people can secure, monitor, evaluate and govern it. |
| Speed and scale | Fewer analysts mean slower patching, triage and recovery, especially during simultaneous incidents. | AI can increase the throughput and personalization of attacks while also automating defensive triage and analysis. |
| Reversibility | A lost specialist or public-sector team may take years to replace because institutional memory leaves with them. | Software capabilities can often be updated faster, although automated harms can spread rapidly before a fix is available. |
| Distribution | Shortages are most acute in public institutions, smaller organizations and regions that struggle to attract talent. | Uneven safeguards and expertise can make AI widen those existing inequalities. |
The dependency and reversibility axes explain the headline judgment. AI capability can be improved or restricted through technical changes; rebuilding a depleted national workforce requires education, experience and time. That does not make AI harmless, and countries with strong staffing may face a different balance of risks.
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Why governments are especially exposed
Public-sector security teams compete with higher-paying employers while carrying responsibility for elections, identity systems, tax records, defense networks and essential services. The World Economic Forum said the cyber skills gap widened 8% from 2024 to 2025, “predominantly affecting the public sector.” Only 14% of organizations said they were confident they had the people and skills needed at that time.
Staff losses also weaken policy execution. A law can require risk assessments or breach reporting, but agencies need practitioners who can interpret technical evidence, audit compliance and help smaller operators meet the rules. The EU Cyber Solidarity Act therefore describes closing the skills gap—while reducing the gender gap and increasing women’s participation in digital-governance design—as urgent.
Jeremy Jurgens, the World Economic Forum’s managing director, summarized the operating environment on 13 January 2025: “Cyberspace is more complex and challenging than ever due to rapid technological advancements, growing cybercriminal sophistication and deeply interconnected supply chains.” Complexity makes experienced judgment more valuable, not less.
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What a credible national response looks like
1. Retain the people who hold institutional memory
- Use pay, career progression, flexible work and manageable on-call schedules to reduce avoidable departures.
- Document architecture, incident playbooks and supplier dependencies before experienced staff leave.
- Create senior technical tracks so experts do not have to become managers to advance.
2. Widen entry routes
Traditional four-year degrees are not the only route into security operations, identity administration, cloud defense or vulnerability management. Screen for problem-solving ability and provide supervised pathways for candidates from IT support, networking, software development, military service and other adjacent backgrounds.
3. Build apprenticeships and reskilling programs
In the World Economic Forum’s 2025 workforce responses, 54% of organizations said they recruit experienced cyber professionals, 24% promote apprenticeships, 24% upskill current employees and 23% recruit outside traditional cyber degrees or credentials. The figures are reported responses, not a universal formula, but they show that hiring alone cannot close the gap.
4. Teach AI security as a core skill
- Train defenders to test model inputs, outputs, data handling and access controls.
- Require documented review before an AI tool reaches production, including a way to disable it.
- Teach analysts to recognize generated phishing, prompt-injection attempts, data poisoning and fabricated results.
- Keep a qualified human accountable for high-impact decisions and incident escalation.
5. Share capacity across institutions
Smaller municipalities, schools and suppliers may never maintain a large specialist team. National incident-response networks, joint procurement, regional security operations and clear escalation channels can give those organizations access to expertise without pretending that automation removes the staffing requirement.
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What this means for individuals entering cybersecurity
The shortage creates opportunity, but employers still need evidence of practical ability. Entry-level cybersecurity training or a cybersecurity certification pathway can establish fundamentals; hands-on labs, scripting, network analysis, cloud controls and clear incident writing show that a candidate can apply them. Learning how to evaluate AI systems is increasingly part of that baseline.
For employers, the useful question is not “Can an AI tool replace this analyst?” It is “Which repetitive tasks can it perform safely, who verifies the result, and what happens when the tool fails?” A staffing plan that cannot answer those questions is not an AI strategy.
Bottom line
AI is a serious and fast-moving cyber risk, but brain drain is the enabling weakness that determines whether a nation can contain it. The evidence supports treating workforce capacity as critical infrastructure: retain experienced staff, open more routes into the profession, reskill adjacent workers and make AI governance part of every defender’s job. Countries that do those things can use AI to extend scarce expertise; countries that do not may simply automate their vulnerability.
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