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Bitcoin and oil do not have one dependable, shared reaction to a global shock. Oil can jump when an event removes physical supply, yet fall over the following months when the same event mainly raises uncertainty and weakens demand. Bitcoin’s relationship with macroeconomic news and other financial assets has also changed by period and by type of stress: one New York Fed event study found no measurable response to macro news in its sample, while IMF studies document stronger crypto spillovers during turbulent episodes and stock-market shocks spilling into Bitcoin.
The useful comparison is therefore not “which asset always rises in a crisis?” It is: what kind of shock occurred, which price or return measure is being observed, and over what horizon? The evidence below answers those questions without treating either market as a universal hedge.
What counts as a global shock?
“Global shock” covers several economically different events. A closure of a major shipping route can remove barrels from the market immediately. A geopolitical confrontation that does not interrupt production can instead increase uncertainty, delay investment and travel, and reduce expected economic activity. A banking failure or monetary-policy surprise can move financial assets without changing physical oil supply at all. Crypto-specific failures can affect Bitcoin even when oil production is unchanged.
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How oil reacts: supply, demand and timing
Immediate physical supply disruption
When an event suddenly removes crude from the market, the first response is usually concentrated in the spot market—the price for prompt delivery. Buyers needing barrels now compete for a smaller available supply, and the spot price can rise sharply. The Federal Reserve’s October 9, 2026 FEDS Note examines this pattern after the Strait of Hormuz was closed during the Middle East conflict discussed in the note. In that episode, spot prices moved substantially above futures prices, creating severe backwardation.
The note describes WTI spot oil at about $60 per barrel at the start of 2026 and fluctuating between $80 and $100 since early March. Those figures describe the period analyzed in the note; they are not a live quotation or a forecast for later prices. Six-month and one-year futures remained substantially below their early-2022 levels, illustrating that a dramatic prompt shortage does not require the entire futures curve to rise by the same amount.
Why backwardation appears
Backwardation occurs when the spot price is above the price of a futures contract for a later delivery date. In a shortage, refiners and other users may value a barrel today far more than a promise of a barrel months from now. That extra value is often called a convenience yield: holding physical inventory helps a user keep operating when replacement supplies are uncertain.
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Backwardation is not a simple signal that traders expect oil to become permanently cheaper. Futures prices include expectations, financing and storage economics, risk premiums and the compensation required to trade in a less liquid market. As Erik Heitfield, Yang-Ho Park and Erfan Danesh of the Federal Reserve Board write in the 2026 FEDS Note: “Oil futures prices should provide an indication of market participants’ expectations about future oil prices, but neither economic theory nor a large body of empirical work suggests that this relationship is likely to be one-to-one in all circumstances.”
Demand and uncertainty can overwhelm the supply channel
A geopolitical event can also reduce expected demand. Businesses may postpone investment, households may travel less, and financial conditions may tighten. If those effects are larger than the physical supply loss, oil can decline after an initial fluctuation. The International Monetary Fund’s April 2025 Global Financial Stability Report Chapter 2 online annex estimates responses to geopolitical-risk shocks across countries and episodes. Prices fluctuate in the first month, then decline on average in subsequent months; the cumulative average decline reaches about 1 percent several months after the shock.
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That approximately 1 percent figure is an IMF staff estimate of the average cumulative response at its peak across the studied geopolitical-risk episodes. It is not the expected first-day move for every crisis and does not contradict a sharp rise after a direct supply interruption. The annex reports larger declines for global or large country-specific risk shocks and interprets the average negative response as evidence that demand and uncertainty effects dominate across those observations.
Spot and futures answer different questions
| Measure | What it represents | Why it can move differently in a shock |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price | Value of oil for prompt delivery | Captures immediate scarcity, logistics and the convenience of having physical barrels now. |
| Near-term futures | Contracted price for delivery in a specified future month | Reflects expected supply and demand, risk premiums, financing, storage and current liquidity. |
| Longer-dated futures | Market pricing for delivery farther ahead | May remain restrained if traders expect production, shipping or demand to normalize. |
During severe backwardation, futures can be a poor one-to-one forecast of later spot prices. The Federal Reserve authors also caution that estimates made in unusually severe backwardation extrapolate beyond typical historical data. Reduced market depth and impaired liquidity can make quoted futures prices less informative than they appear.
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Evidence of a macro-news disconnect in one sample
The New York Fed staff report The Bitcoin–Macro Disconnect uses an intraday event-study design focused on macroeconomic news. Its key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin was orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news in the study’s sample. “Orthogonal” here means that the measured Bitcoin response was not statistically related to the selected news surprises in that design and period. It does not establish that Bitcoin will remain insulated from every future rate decision, inflation release or geopolitical event.
Spillovers rise during turbulent periods
Roshan Iyer and Adina Popescu’s IMF Working Paper, published September 29, 2023, analyzes return and volatility spillovers among crypto and financial assets from 2014 through the end of 2022. The authors find that spillovers intensify during turbulence caused by adverse economic or financial news, crypto events or other exogenous shocks. In their sample, measured interdependence peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Crypto assets generally transmitted spillovers to financial markets in the authors’ results, but the direction could reverse during financial stress. That finding rules out a fixed “Bitcoin leads” or “stocks lead” story. Transmission depends on the state of the market, the assets included and whether returns or volatility are being measured.
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A more recent snapshot shows sensitivity to other assets
The IMF’s April 2025 Global Financial Stability Report Chapter 1 reports that Bitcoin had fallen more than 25 percent from its early-year peak during the period covered. The report describes that drawdown as evidence of sensitivity to pressure in other asset prices and says stock-market shocks appeared to spill over to Bitcoin more than the reverse in its analysis. The statement is time-bounded: it describes the report’s publication-period conditions, not a current drawdown or a permanent causal relationship.
Bitcoin versus oil during the same shock
No source listed here estimates a single matched Bitcoin-and-oil model using the same shocks, dates and controls. The comparison is therefore a synthesis of separate evidence, not a published correlation coefficient or a trading rule. The strongest conclusions come from aligning each market’s transmission mechanism and measurement horizon.
| Comparison axis | Oil | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Primary transmission | Physical supply, inventory, transport, expected fuel demand and uncertainty. | Liquidity, risk appetite, macro news, crypto-specific events and cross-asset spillovers. |
| Fastest observable measure | Prompt spot price; the futures curve can show backwardation or contango. | Intraday or daily return and volatility, depending on the study. |
| Typical stress complication | Supply scarcity can lift spot while recession fears depress later demand. | Low measured response in one macro-news sample can coexist with stronger spillovers during broad turbulence. |
| Stability across episodes | Direction changes with the balance between supply loss and demand destruction. | Interdependence changes with the period, shock and estimation method. |
| What the cited evidence does not establish | A universal rule that every geopolitical shock raises oil. | A universal safe-haven status or a fixed response relative to oil. |
Three shock scenarios and the likely reasoning path
Scenario 1: A major export route is closed
- Check physical exposure. Ask how many barrels are actually delayed or removed, how quickly alternative routes can be used, and whether inventories can cover the gap.
- Watch prompt oil first. A sharp rise in spot relative to later contracts is consistent with immediate scarcity and a higher convenience yield.
- Separate the curve from the headline. If six-month and one-year contracts rise much less than spot, the market may be pricing a temporary disruption rather than permanent depletion.
- Assess financial spillovers. If the event tightens global liquidity or triggers a broad equity selloff, Bitcoin can be affected through the financial channel even though the physical oil shortage is unrelated to its network.
This is the setting in which “oil rises during a crisis” is most plausible—but it describes a supply interruption, not geopolitical risk in general.
Scenario 2: A geopolitical confrontation raises uncertainty but leaves supply intact
- Look for demand revisions. Lower forecasts for manufacturing, freight, travel or investment can reduce expected oil consumption.
- Use the correct horizon. Oil may fluctuate or rise initially, then weaken over subsequent months if demand and uncertainty effects dominate.
- Interpret Bitcoin through the market regime. A short intraday macro-news response may be negligible in one sample, while persistent risk aversion can increase spillovers between Bitcoin, equities and other crypto assets.
The IMF’s approximately 1 percent average cumulative decline several months after studied geopolitical-risk shocks belongs to this cross-episode, medium-horizon evidence. It should not be applied mechanically to a specific confrontation.
Scenario 3: A financial-market or crypto-specific shock
A banking event, abrupt repricing of interest rates or failure inside crypto markets can move Bitcoin without an oil-supply change. Oil may respond only if the shock changes expected global activity, credit conditions or inventories. During broad financial stress, the IMF spillover study indicates that transmission can intensify and even reverse direction. In this scenario, Bitcoin’s behavior is better analyzed with return and volatility spillovers than with a physical commodity shortage model.
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Does Bitcoin go up when oil prices rise?
There is no dependable rule that Bitcoin rises when oil rises. The two assets can move together when a shock boosts inflation expectations or global risk appetite, but they can diverge when oil rises because of a supply shortage while Bitcoin is sold for liquidity. They can also fall together if a geopolitical event threatens demand and investors reduce exposure to risky assets.
The cited studies do not provide a matched Bitcoin-oil correlation for common events. A claim that one asset reliably predicts the other would therefore go beyond the evidence. To test co-movement for a particular period, an analyst would need to specify the oil contract, Bitcoin price series, trading hours, currency, event window and controls for equity, rates, dollar and volatility factors.
Is Bitcoin a safe haven during geopolitical crises?
The available evidence does not support calling Bitcoin a general safe haven. A safe-haven claim requires a defined benchmark, horizon and loss-avoidance test—such as whether an asset remains uncorrelated or negatively correlated with the benchmark during its worst episodes. The New York Fed result concerns a particular intraday macro-news sample. The IMF work finds stronger interdependence during turbulence, and the April 2025 IMF report describes stock-market shocks spilling over to Bitcoin more than the reverse in its analysis.
Those findings leave room for Bitcoin to behave defensively in some episodes, but they do not establish a stable property that investors can assume before the next crisis.
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Start with the curve shape
Compare the prompt contract with six-month and one-year maturities. Spot above futures indicates backwardation; the size of the gap helps show how concentrated the shortage is in immediate delivery. A flatter curve suggests that traders expect the disruption to persist or that risk premiums are distributed across maturities.
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Do not treat the futures quote as a guaranteed forecast
Futures prices combine expectations of future spot prices with risk premiums, liquidity conditions, financing and storage economics. In the 2026 Federal Reserve case, the authors judge that oil-futures risk premiums were likely negative since March and warn that unusually severe backwardation makes historical extrapolation unreliable. Thin market depth can widen apparent price differences and make execution prices less representative.
Track physical indicators separately
- Whether production or exports are actually offline.
- Shipping restrictions and the availability of alternative routes.
- Inventory levels and refinery utilization.
- Revisions to global growth and fuel-demand forecasts.
- Whether the spot-futures gap narrows as logistics normalize.
How to analyze Bitcoin during a shock
Define the event window
Intraday event studies answer whether Bitcoin reacts around a narrowly timed announcement. Longer spillover studies answer whether returns or volatility transmit across markets over days, weeks or stress regimes. Mixing those horizons can create an apparent contradiction where none exists.
Separate return from volatility
A market can have a small average return response but a large jump in volatility. The IMF working paper’s results include both return and volatility spillovers, which is why “Bitcoin did not move” and “Bitcoin became more connected” are not necessarily incompatible statements.
Identify the direction of transmission
During ordinary periods, spillovers may appear to run mainly from crypto to financial assets; during financial stress, the direction can reverse. The April 2025 IMF analysis reports stock-market shocks spilling over to Bitcoin more than the reverse for the period it studies. Neither result should be converted into a permanent leadership rule.
Common analytical mistakes
- Calling every geopolitical event a supply shock. Many events change uncertainty and demand expectations without removing a barrel.
- Using a later-month futures price as a precise forecast. Risk premiums and liquidity can materially separate futures from subsequent spot prices.
- Generalizing one Bitcoin sample. A macro-news disconnect in one event study does not settle Bitcoin’s behavior during prolonged financial stress.
- Equating correlation with hedging. A low average correlation can disappear when markets are under pressure—the period when protection matters most.
- Comparing incompatible data. Oil may be measured with a prompt WTI contract while Bitcoin is measured on a 24-hour exchange index; different hours, currencies and roll conventions affect results.
- Presenting historical snapshots as current quotes. The 2026 WTI range and the IMF’s 2025 Bitcoin drawdown are observations from their stated periods, not live market conditions.
- Inventing a direct Bitcoin-oil relationship. The cited evidence analyzes the markets separately and does not supply a common-shock estimate.
A practical decision framework for readers
- Classify the shock: physical supply loss, demand destruction, monetary news, financial contagion or crypto-specific event.
- Choose the horizon: minutes and hours for announcement effects, days for repricing, or months for demand and production adjustment.
- Choose the measure: oil spot, a specified futures maturity, Bitcoin return, Bitcoin volatility or cross-asset spillover.
- Check the transmission channel: scarcity, convenience yield, risk premium, liquidity, leverage or forced selling.
- State the evidence boundary: identify the sample, date, publisher and whether the result is an average, an event-specific observation or a model estimate.
- Avoid universal labels: describe what happened in the defined episode rather than declaring Bitcoin or oil a permanent hedge.
What the evidence says—and what it cannot say
Oil’s response is conditional. A direct supply interruption can lift prompt prices and produce severe backwardation, as described in the Federal Reserve’s October 2026 note. Across the IMF’s April 2025 geopolitical-risk episodes, however, oil declined on average over subsequent months, with an approximately 1 percent peak cumulative decline, because demand and uncertainty effects dominated on average.
Bitcoin’s response is conditional as well. The New York Fed’s event study found orthogonality to monetary and macroeconomic news in its sample. IMF research from 2014 through 2022 found that crypto-financial spillovers intensified during turbulence and that transmission could reverse during stress. The IMF’s April 2025 report observed a more than 25 percent fall from Bitcoin’s early-year peak and greater spillover from stocks to Bitcoin in its analysis. These are compatible findings because they address different periods, shocks, horizons and methods.
The defensible conclusion is not that Bitcoin and oil move together or always move opposite. It is that their crisis behavior is state-dependent: oil is first shaped by physical availability and expected demand, while Bitcoin is shaped by financial conditions, market structure and changing spillovers. Any claim about one responding to the other must specify the event, data and horizon rather than rely on a universal correlation story.
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