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For a U.S. trader, the clearest regulated alternatives to Kalshi are ForecastEx accessed through Interactive Brokers, Robinhood’s event-contract interface, and Polymarket US. They are not interchangeable. ForecastEx and Polymarket US are designated contract markets listed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Robinhood is an intermediary whose derivatives business routes contracts to one or more partner exchanges, so the legal venue, contract terms, and fees can vary by product.
The right choice depends on the exact event, current order-book liquidity, spread, fee formula, settlement method, account eligibility, and state availability. Check all of those items on the live product immediately before opening an account or submitting an order.
At a glance: which alternative fits your use case?
| Service | Regulatory identity | How you access it | Contract categories stated by the source | Published pricing information | Eligibility and availability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ForecastEx | ForecastEx LLC was designated by the CFTC on June 24, 2024. | Through Interactive Brokers, which says it is a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and a clearing member or affiliate of ForecastEx. | Forecast contracts, with a strong focus on macroeconomic and other economic events. | Interactive Brokers’ table lists $0.00 IBKR commission plus a $0.01 exchange fee per ForecastEx contract. Confirm the live schedule before trading. | Only eligible Interactive Brokers customers can access the contracts. Account, jurisdiction, and product approval still apply. |
| Robinhood event contracts | Robinhood Derivatives routes contracts to CFTC-regulated partner exchanges. Robinhood names KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, and North American Derivatives Exchange as possible venues. | Inside an eligible Robinhood individual brokerage account. | Sports, politics, weather, commodities, and entertainment, subject to contract-specific limits. | For trades on or after June 1, 2026, Robinhood says the commission is probability-weighted: 10% without Gold or 5% with Gold, multiplied by price × (1 − price) × contract count. Exchange fees can add up to $0.01 per contract. | U.S. resident, at least 18, individual brokerage account, and approval required. Some states and contracts are excluded. |
| Polymarket US | QCX LLC, doing business as Polymarket US, was designated by the CFTC on July 9, 2025. | Use the U.S. product offered by that designated entity, not an offshore Polymarket product. | Current categories, catalog, and retail access were not established in the cited materials. | Current consumer fees were not established in the cited materials. | Verify onboarding, state coverage, contract rules, fees, and liquidity on the live U.S. service. |
The table separates a designated exchange from an app that may route your order elsewhere. A CFTC designation confirms the venue’s regulatory status; it does not guarantee a particular app’s catalog, liquidity, fee, or availability in your state.
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How event contracts work
Event contracts are generally swaps built around a defined future outcome. A common structure is a yes/no contract with a fixed payout, usually $1, at expiration. If the stated event occurs under the contract’s definition, the yes position pays $1; if it does not, it pays $0. The opposite side settles accordingly.
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A price is therefore read as an implied probability. Robinhood’s explanation uses a $0.65 contract as an example of roughly a 65% market-implied probability. That interpretation assumes the contract is binary, the payout is exactly $1, and fees and spread are ignored. Your actual expected return also depends on the price you pay, the price at which you exit, fees, and the settlement rule.
Many platforms let you close a position before expiration. An early sale is an ordinary market transaction at the available bid, not a guaranteed cash-out at the eventual $0 or $1 settlement value. Thin books, wide spreads, or a sudden change in information can make an early exit expensive or impossible at the price you expected.
Regulated markets are intended to provide surveillance, customer-protection rules, transparent order books, and complaint channels. Those protections do not eliminate market risk. Read the contract’s precise event definition, observation period, data source, tie or cancellation provisions, and settlement time before trading.
ForecastEx through Interactive Brokers
Why it stands out
ForecastEx is the most straightforward choice when you want a designated contract market accessed through an established brokerage workflow and are primarily interested in economic or macroeconomic questions. The CFTC registry records ForecastEx LLC’s designation on June 24, 2024. Interactive Brokers states that it is a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant and a clearing member or affiliate of ForecastEx, and that eligible customers can access ForecastEx forecast contracts.
This arrangement gives you two entities to understand: ForecastEx is the exchange venue and Interactive Brokers is the account and clearing gateway. A brokerage relationship does not make every contract available to every customer. Approval, jurisdiction, account type, and product controls can still block access.
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Fees and what the published table means
Interactive Brokers’ published table lists no IBKR commission for a ForecastEx contract and a $0.01 exchange fee per contract. The same table lists $0.01 IBKR commission plus a $0.01 exchange fee for CME and Kalshi event contracts. These are published schedule figures, not a promise that every future product, account, or order will be priced identically. Confirm the live schedule, any regulatory charges, and the contract’s own terms before submitting an order.
A low stated commission does not automatically mean the lowest total trading cost. Include the bid-ask spread, the number of contracts, any cost of closing early, and the probability of an unfilled limit order in your comparison.
Practical access checklist
- Confirm that your Interactive Brokers account is an eligible U.S. account for ForecastEx products.
- Review the account’s derivatives permissions and any required disclosures or approvals.
- Locate the specific ForecastEx contract and read its outcome definition, expiration, settlement source, and fee schedule.
- Inspect the live order book rather than relying on the headline probability. Note the best bid, best offer, displayed size, and recent trading activity.
- Choose a limit price that reflects the probability you are willing to trade and the spread you are willing to pay.
- Before sending the order, check the estimated total charge and confirm whether the order opens or closes a position.
Robinhood event contracts
What Robinhood actually provides
Robinhood’s event-contract interface is an integrated retail-app experience, but Robinhood is not presented as one single designated exchange for every contract. Its disclosure says Robinhood Derivatives can use KalshiEX, ForecastEX, Rothera Exchange and Clearing, and North American Derivatives Exchange. The exchange named for a particular contract affects the governing rulebook, settlement process, and potentially the fee line shown to you.
Robinhood says its catalog can include sports, politics, weather, commodities, and entertainment. Availability is contract-specific: a category shown in the app does not mean every event in that category is available in every state.
Commission formula from June 1, 2026
For trades on or after June 1, 2026, Robinhood describes a probability-weighted commission. The constant is 10% for customers without Gold and 5% for customers with Gold; that constant is multiplied by the contract price, one minus the contract price, and the number of contracts. Exchange fees can add up to $0.01 per contract.
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Because the formula changes with price, a contract near the middle of the probability range can produce a different commission than a contract priced close to $0 or $1, even when the contract count is the same. Gold status changes the constant but does not remove the exchange fee or market spread. Read the order preview for the exact charge on your account.
Account and state requirements
Robinhood’s stated requirements are that you be a U.S. resident, at least 18 years old, hold an individual brokerage account, and receive approval for event-contract trading. Joint, retirement, or other account structures may not qualify under the same rules.
State restrictions can change quickly. Robinhood documents limits on sports contracts in Maryland and Nevada and says that, beginning September 9, 2026, Michigan residents cannot open new sports contracts. Existing positions and non-sports contracts can be governed by different rules. Treat the in-app eligibility result and the contract disclosure as controlling for your address and the event you selected.
Using the app without overlooking the venue
- Open the event-contract section and select the exact event, not just a category.
- Read the exchange or venue disclosure attached to that contract.
- Check the outcome wording, data source, cutoff time, cancellation conditions, and settlement date.
- Review the displayed commission and any exchange fee for the order size you entered.
- Compare the bid and ask with the implied probability. A displayed last price can be stale when trading is light.
- Submit only after the app confirms that your state and account are eligible for that contract.
Polymarket US: a separate U.S. venue to verify
The CFTC registry lists QCX LLC doing business as Polymarket US as a designated contract market on July 9, 2025. That designation establishes the U.S. venue’s regulatory status in the registry. It does not, by itself, establish the current consumer app, available contract catalog, fees, order-book depth, settlement mechanics for every market, or state-by-state onboarding.
Keep Polymarket US separate from offshore Polymarket products. A familiar brand name does not mean that an offshore account, wallet, token, or website is the same regulated U.S. product. Verify the legal entity, account-opening disclosures, funding method, contract specifications, and withdrawal rules before depositing money.
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Verification checklist for the U.S. product
- Confirm that the page or app identifies QCX LLC doing business as Polymarket US.
- Read the current customer agreement and the rule for determining each market’s official result.
- Check whether the specific market is available in your state and whether identity or suitability checks apply.
- Review the complete fee schedule, including trading, settlement, withdrawal, and any network-related charge that may apply.
- Inspect the live order book and recent activity before treating a displayed price as actionable.
How to choose among the three
Choose ForecastEx through Interactive Brokers when brokerage integration matters most
This route is the clearest fit if you already use Interactive Brokers, want the account and reporting handled through a futures commission merchant, and are focused on economic or macroeconomic contracts. Its limitation is scope: a low exchange fee does not help if the event you want is not listed or if your account is not approved.
Choose Robinhood when you value a broad retail interface
Robinhood is practical when you want sports, politics, weather, commodities, or entertainment contracts in the same app used for other brokerage activity. The trade-off is structural complexity: the app can route to several partner exchanges, the fee formula depends on price and Gold status, and state restrictions can differ by event.
Evaluate Polymarket US only after confirming the live U.S. product
Polymarket US is a designated-market option, but the cited regulatory listing does not answer the consumer questions most traders need answered: which markets are open, how deep the book is, what fees apply, and where residents can onboard. Treat those as pre-trade checks rather than assumptions based on the name.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Regulation, jurisdiction, and legal uncertainty
The CFTC says prediction markets have operated in U.S. regulated markets for more than two decades and that it has regulated them since 2004. The Iowa Presidential Stock Market, now the Iowa Electronic Market, was created in 1988. In 2004, the agency approved the first designated contract market offering binary options.
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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchIn a February 17, 2026 release, CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig described event contracts as tools that can help businesses and individuals hedge event-driven risks, manage portfolio exposure, and obtain information about future outcomes. The same release says the Commission is asserting exclusive jurisdiction over commodity derivatives, including prediction markets, while lawsuits and state-level restrictions continue to create practical uncertainty.
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For a customer, “regulated” should answer a narrow question: which legal entity is subject to which regulator and rulebook? It does not mean every event is legal in every state, that a broker guarantees execution, or that a payout is protected from a contract-definition dispute. Use registered entities, read the contract terms, and risk only money you can afford to lose, as the CFTC advises.
Fees, spreads, liquidity, and execution
There is no independent cross-venue figure in the cited official material for current liquidity, spreads, total volume, or best execution. Do not rank these services by an invented volume number or by commission alone.
Use this order of operations when comparing a particular event:
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- Calculate the all-in entry cost. Add the quoted ask, explicit commission, exchange fee, and any other displayed charge.
- Measure the spread. Subtract the best bid from the best offer. A one-cent commission can be outweighed by a much wider spread.
- Check displayed size. A narrow spread for one contract may disappear when you enter a larger order.
- Read the exit conditions. Confirm whether you can close before expiration and how an early close is priced.
- Compare settlement rules. Two contracts that appear to ask the same question can use different data sources, time windows, rounding, or cancellation provisions.
Use a limit order when the spread or displayed depth makes a market order unnecessarily expensive. Remember that a limit order can remain unfilled while the event’s probability changes.
Risk controls for event-based trading
- Define the maximum loss first. A yes contract can lose nearly its full purchase price if it settles at $0; a short or no position has its own exposure under the platform’s rules.
- Separate probability from value. A 65% chance is not automatically a good buy at $0.65 after fees and spread.
- Read the source hierarchy. Know which government release, league statistic, weather station, election authority, or other source determines the official outcome.
- Check time zones and cutoff times. A result announced after a contract’s observation window may not count.
- Limit correlated positions. Several contracts on the same election, storm, or economic release can create one concentrated bet under different labels.
- Plan for stale information. Markets can move before an official announcement and can remain open while participants disagree about what qualifies as the result.
- Keep records. Save the contract name, venue, price, quantity, fees, and settlement notice so you can reconcile the result and use the venue’s complaint process if necessary.
Other designated venues to watch
The CFTC registry also lists Coinbase Derivatives, Gemini Titan, Aristotle Exchange, Electron Exchange, Quanta Exchange, Xchange Alpha, ProphetX, Optex Markets, Ludlow Exchange, Water Street Labs, and Juice Exchange as designated at various dates from 2020 through July 2026.
A designation alone does not prove that one of these venues currently offers retail event contracts, has meaningful liquidity, accepts customers in your state, or provides an app suitable for your account. Treat the registry as a starting point for verifying the legal venue, then confirm the live product’s contract catalog, onboarding, fees, settlement rules, and order book.
Quick Recap
A pre-trade decision checklist
- Write down the exact event and the outcome that would make the contract pay $1.
- Record the designated exchange or intermediary and the applicable rulebook.
- Confirm that your account type, age, residence, and state qualify.
- Read the expiration, observation period, data source, rounding, tie, and cancellation clauses.
- Check the live bid, ask, displayed size, and total fees for your order quantity.
- Decide whether you can hold to settlement or need a realistic early-exit plan.
- Set a maximum dollar loss and avoid using money needed for bills, taxes, or emergency savings.
- Save the order confirmation and final settlement notice.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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