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Yes—but the strongest evidence is regional. A University of Maine study found that sampled baby lobsters in central and midcoast Maine fell about 80% from 2010 to 2022, followed by declines in young lobsters and adults large enough to catch. The pattern makes baby-lobster surveys a potentially useful early indicator for the midcoast, not a proven coastwide forecasting rule.

The results also show why the trend is difficult to interpret: warmer water has changed lobster growth and expanded suitable habitat into deeper areas that some surveys cover poorly.

What the University of Maine study found

Researchers from the University of Maine worked with the Maine Department of Marine Resources (DMR) to align independent surveys of different lobster life stages. The surveys used scuba divers, traps and trawls and covered different depths and locations. The work was published in Marine Ecology Progress Series by Jarrett and colleagues in 2026.

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Life stage Reported change Time window or qualification What it indicates
Baby lobsters About 80% decline in sampled animals 2010–2022 The earliest fall in the linked midcoast sequence
Young lobsters About 70% decline Since 2015 A later decline among lobsters measuring 45–83 millimeters (1.8–3.3 inches) in shell length
Catchable adults About 50% decline Described as a subsequent decline; the news release does not specify a complete start window Fewer adults large enough for lobstermen to catch

These percentages come from separate surveys and different time periods. They should not be multiplied or described as the measured survival rate of one lobster cohort. The important result is the order of the trends: baby lobsters declined first in the midcoast, then young lobsters, then catchable adults.

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Where the relationship is strongest

Midcoast and central Maine

The clearest cross-stage decline occurred from Brunswick to the Schoodic Peninsula, the study’s definition of the midcoast. Baby, adolescent and adult trends moved in the same direction, making this area the strongest case for using early-life-stage monitoring as a warning signal.

Downeast Maine

Baby-lobster numbers also declined there since 2010, but the adult decline was smaller and results for adolescent lobsters varied. A smaller number of samples may account for part of that inconsistency, and slower, more variable growth can make signals harder to detect.

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Southern Maine

Samples across life stages remained comparatively stable since 2010. The report notes that deep water in southern Maine is still too cold for lobsters even as surface temperatures rise, so the amount of newly suitable territory has changed less than it has farther east.

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How researchers linked baby, young and adult trends

The analytical value of the study is sequence rather than a single coastwide count. Researchers compared the direction and timing of trends from surveys designed for different stages and depths. A fall in the earliest stage followed by lower numbers in later stages is consistent with a recruitment signal that managers could track before changes appear in the catchable population.

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Because divers, traps and trawls sample different habitats, the surveys do not measure identical areas. The study therefore demonstrates an association among trends, not a fixed number of years of warning. It does not establish a formal threshold at which managers must change rules.

How warmer water may be changing the pattern

Warmer water is associated with faster growth in central Maine and with greater use of deeper habitat in the midcoast and Downeast regions. Faster growth can make the progression from baby to adolescent to adult easier to see in survey data. In eastern Maine, slower and more variable growth can spread that signal across time.

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Lead researcher Robert Jarrett II described the finding this way: “Central Maine showed the clearest links among baby, adolescent and adult lobsters across surveys driven by the boom and then decline in lobster abundance in the region tied to warmer water temperatures.” He added that “Faster growth there also creates a more consistent signal than in eastern Maine, where slower, variable growth likely makes the signal harder to detect.”

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Habitat shifts create an important complication. If lobsters move into deeper areas that a survey samples less often, an apparent decline can reflect redistribution rather than mortality. Changes in behavior, habitat preference and survey coverage can all affect the observed numbers. The evidence supports a relationship with a warmer-water-driven change in growth and habitat use, but it does not prove that temperature alone caused the population decline.

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Why the finding matters to Maine’s fishery

Maine DMR has more than 40 years of information on lobster catch, discards, bycatch and natural populations. It uses those data in stock assessments and other studies. Adding better early-life-stage signals could help managers see regional changes sooner within that existing monitoring system.

The study does not set quotas, establish a coastwide collapse or predict a specific economic loss. The stakes are nevertheless substantial: Maine lobster landings generated more than $461 million in 2025, according to the University of Maine’s 2026 report. That figure explains why recruitment monitoring matters, but it is not a forecast from the study.

Kathleen Reardon, senior lobster fishery scientist with Maine DMR, said: “Maine DMR is invested in a comprehensive, coastwide lobster monitoring approach and leads multiple surveys to study lobsters across their full life cycle.” Jarrett likewise emphasized that American lobster is among the world’s most data-rich fisheries while saying sampling must continue to expand as environmental conditions change.

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What the study does—and does not—tell us

  • It does show: a pronounced decline in sampled baby lobsters from 2010 to 2022, a 70% decline in young lobsters since 2015, and a subsequent 50% decline in catchable adults, with the clearest alignment in the midcoast.
  • It does not show: that every part of Maine is experiencing the same trend or that the percentages describe one cohort’s survival.
  • It does not provide: an exact lead time between a baby-lobster decline and an adult decline, a universal management trigger or a guaranteed coastwide forecast.
  • It requires caution because: surveys cover limited depths and areas, and lobsters may have moved into habitat that is harder to sample.

How to interpret the news in practical terms

If you are asking whether baby lobsters are disappearing in Maine, the accurate answer is that sampled baby lobsters have fallen sharply in the midcoast and also declined Downeast, while southern Maine has been comparatively stable. If you are asking whether that predicts fewer adults, the study provides a strong midcoast example of the sequence but not a universal rule. The most useful next step for managers is continued, coordinated sampling across life stages, regions and depths so a change in abundance can be separated from a change in where lobsters live.

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