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An international team has found that black holes separated by enormous differences in mass can launch powerful jets at the same point in their feeding cycle: when accretion falls to roughly 2% of the Eddington limit. The result, reported by the Institute for Advanced Study on September 17, 2026, offers a way to anticipate delayed radio eruptions from supermassive black holes after they shred stars.
The universal rule: jets appear near 2% of Eddington
The study, published in Nature Astronomy as “A universal critical accretion rate for black hole jet formation,” identifies an approximately 2% Eddington accretion rate as a critical transition for jet production. The Eddington limit is the feeding rate at which the outward pressure of radiation balances a black hole’s inward gravitational pull. In this study, the delayed jets appeared as the disrupted-star material’s inflow declined to about two hundredths of that limit.
What makes the finding unusual is its scale. Stellar-mass black holes of roughly 10 Suns in the Milky Way are already known to produce jets near the same relative accretion rate. The new observations indicate that supermassive black holes, millions of times heavier, follow the same proportional rule. The absolute amount of matter involved differs enormously, but the critical point in the feeding cycle appears to be scale-invariant.
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Why a shredded star reveals the timing
The team used tidal-disruption events (TDEs), a rare phenomenon in which a supermassive black hole tears apart a passing star. A TDE turns what would normally be a slow change in a galaxy’s central black hole into an observable episode lasting years. Under ordinary conditions, a supermassive black hole’s feeding state can evolve over thousands or millions of years, making the transition difficult to follow directly.
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After disruption, some stellar debris becomes bound and returns toward the black hole. The feeding rate starts extremely high and then declines. That natural decline provides a clock: astronomers can track the changing inflow and test when a radio outflow appears.
How the collaboration tested the pattern
The researchers assembled optical, ultraviolet, X-ray and radio measurements for 20 TDEs. They then selected 10 high-quality events for dependable modeling of the feeding rate and the timing of radio outflows. Combining these wavelengths let the team distinguish the changing accretion state from the appearance of a jet, rather than treating a radio flare alone as proof of a particular launch condition.
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Andrew Mummery, a Martin A. and Helen Chooljian Member at the Institute for Advanced Study, and Adelle Goodwin, a Forrest Research Foundation Fellow at Curtin University’s International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, co-led the work. Mummery described the motivation as a “massive puzzle”: some supermassive black holes produce radio jets immediately after disrupting a star, while others remain quiet before firing months or years later.
Two jet-launching phases after a tidal-disruption event
The analysis separates the eruptions into an early phase and a delayed phase. Their differing timing and accretion conditions are important for planning observations.
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| Phase | Timing after disruption | Feeding rate | Observational signature | Likely observing strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early jet | Shortly after the star is torn apart | Extreme, near the initial high-accretion state | Radio outflow appears while the TDE is still in its intense early phase | Monitor promptly across optical, ultraviolet, X-ray and radio bands |
| Delayed jet | Hundreds to thousands of days later | Falls to about 2% of the Eddington limit | A radio eruption follows a long quiet interval as feeding declines | Estimate the decline from other wavelengths, then schedule radio observations around the predicted threshold |
The 2% value does not mean every event must erupt at exactly the same measured percentage. It is the approximate critical level identified by the modeled sample, and individual systems can have different geometry, magnetic fields and viewing angles. The result is a physical guide for forecasting, not a guarantee that every TDE will produce an observable jet.
Why black holes can wait before “erupting”
A black hole does not need to launch a jet at the instant a star is disrupted. The early debris stream can feed the system in a state that is too different from the later, lower-rate regime associated with the delayed transition. As the inflow weakens, the structure of the accretion flow can change, allowing conditions favorable to a collimated, relativistic outflow to develop hundreds or thousands of days after the disruption.
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Adelle Goodwin emphasized that a black hole “does not swallow everything neatly.” Some debris can remain in extended orbits, collide, circularize and return over time. That complicated flow helps explain why the radio event can be separated from the initial flare by months or years rather than appearing as one instantaneous burst.
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What the result changes for observing campaigns
Radio facilities have limited time, and delayed jets can be brief or easy to miss if observations stop after the initial TDE flare. Once astronomers estimate how quickly the feeding rate is declining, the threshold supplies a target window for follow-up. Coordinated optical, ultraviolet and X-ray monitoring can refine the accretion estimate while radio arrays concentrate observations near the predicted transition.
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The Institute for Advanced Study says this approach could reduce wasted observations and improve the odds of catching short-lived eruptions. The Square Kilometre Array, expected to begin collecting scientific data in 2028, is specifically cited as a facility that could benefit from such predictive scheduling. In practice, the rule would help teams decide not only which TDEs to monitor, but when intensive radio coverage is most valuable.
What remains uncertain
- The result is based on 20 TDEs, with detailed feeding-rate and radio-timing models for 10 high-quality events; a larger sample will test how universal the approximately 2% threshold is.
- A threshold predicts a favorable accretion state, not the radio brightness, direction or detectability of a particular jet.
- Relativistic beaming, the system’s magnetic configuration and the observer’s viewing angle can alter the signal seen from Earth.
- The early and delayed phases may reflect different accretion-flow conditions, so one mechanism should not automatically be assumed to describe both.
The central advance is therefore predictive rather than merely descriptive: black-hole jets of vastly different sizes appear to share a common relative feeding threshold. Tidal-disruption events make that transition visible on human timescales, turning an otherwise inaccessible change in a supermassive black hole into a trackable sequence of flares and radio outflows.
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