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ASML’s sales to China rose 109% quarter over quarter in the third quarter of 2026, lifting China’s share of the company’s machine sales from 14% to 23%. ASML still expects China to account for about 20% of its total 2026 sales, making the market financially important even as export-control pressure increases.
What ASML reported for the third quarter
ASML Holding N.V. reported its Q3 2026 results on October 14, 2026. Total quarterly net sales reached €11.7 billion and net income was €5.0 billion. In Q2, the company reported €9.3 billion in net sales and €2.9 billion in net income.
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change or qualification |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total net sales | €9.3 billion | €11.7 billion | Company-wide quarterly sales |
| Net income | €2.9 billion | €5.0 billion | Company-wide quarterly net income |
| China share of machine sales | 14% | 23% | Share of machine sales, not total company sales |
| China sales growth | — | 109% quarter over quarter | Increase reported for Q3 versus Q2; an absolute China-sales euro figure was not stated |
The 109% figure describes the change from one quarter to the next. It does not mean China generated 109% of ASML’s revenue, nor does it provide the absolute value of China sales. The 23% figure is also specific to machine sales in Q3.
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1Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteWhy did China sales rise 109%?
ASML’s published Q3 results report the increase but do not identify one country-specific operational cause. The disclosure provides the sales result, broader order-book momentum and the company’s demand outlook, but it does not attribute the jump to a particular customer, product, shipment schedule or policy event. A more precise explanation would therefore be speculation.
What is established is that China-bound machine sales were much higher in Q3 than in Q2, while ASML’s overall business also expanded from €9.3 billion to €11.7 billion in quarterly sales. The increase occurred as governments were debating tighter controls on exports of less advanced chipmaking equipment to China.
How much of ASML’s business is China?
ASML expects China to represent approximately 20% of its total sales for the full year 2026. That is a company-wide annual expectation, not the same measurement as the 23% share of machine sales recorded in Q3.
These percentages use different denominators and time frames:
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- 23%: China’s share of ASML machine sales in Q3 2026.
- About 20%: ASML’s expected share of total company sales generated in China across all of 2026.
A quarterly machine-sales mix can therefore be above or below the expected full-year share of total sales without creating a contradiction. The full-year estimate also reflects quarters before and after Q3, as well as the distinction between machine sales and the broader total-sales measure.
Why the result matters amid export controls
ASML sells industrial lithography systems used by semiconductor manufacturers. These are production machines for chip fabs, not consumer products. Because the equipment is central to making advanced and less advanced chips, sales to China are closely watched by governments and investors.
During the period covered by the results, Washington was pressing the Netherlands to tighten controls on exports of less advanced chipmaking machinery to China. That policy debate concerns the durability and composition of future sales; it does not change the China revenue already reported for Q3.
The Q3 numbers show that commercial demand from China remained substantial before any possible future policy changes. They do not show that every ASML system can be exported freely, or that current rules will remain unchanged.
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ASML’s 2026 outlook and capacity constraint
ASML guided to full-year 2026 net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion. China’s expected contribution of about 20% therefore remains material to the annual outlook, even though the company faces regulatory uncertainty over future shipments.
ASML also said customer demand is running ahead of its planned supply for the following two years. In its October 14 release, the company stated: “With such strong visibility and an order book momentum that continues to increase quarter on quarter this year, we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.”
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This creates two simultaneous pressures. Strong demand supports revenue opportunities across the business, including from China, while limited system capacity constrains how quickly ASML can satisfy orders. Export rules could further change which customers and destinations can receive available systems.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Will US restrictions stop ASML from selling chip machines to China?
The Q3 results do not support a claim that US restrictions will stop all ASML sales to China. They show that China sales occurred and increased sharply in Q3, while the Netherlands was under pressure to consider tighter controls.
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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Future outcomes depend on the scope and timing of Dutch and other applicable export rules, the types of lithography systems covered, licensing decisions and how ASML allocates constrained production. The available results do not establish a blanket halt, a permanent exemption or the final policy framework.
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For readers tracking the issue, the most useful indicators in later disclosures will be:
- Any new Dutch licensing requirements or restrictions on specific classes of lithography equipment.
- Changes in China’s share of ASML machine orders, shipments and total sales.
- Whether ASML changes its €44–45 billion 2026 guidance.
- Comments on order-book growth and the ability to expand supply for 2027 and 2028.
The key takeaway
China’s 109% quarter-over-quarter sales increase made the country 23% of ASML’s Q3 machine sales and helped keep China on track to contribute about one-fifth of total 2026 sales. The surge demonstrates strong recent commercial demand, but it does not resolve the policy question: export controls could still alter the products ASML may ship, the customers it can serve and the scale of China revenue in later quarters.
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