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ASML raised its 2026 net-sales outlook to €43 billion–€45 billion after strong first-half demand and customer capacity plans lifted its view of the chip-equipment market. The higher forecast supports confidence in near-term demand, particularly for advanced logic and memory tied to AI investment. It does not mean trade risks have disappeared: ASML continues to flag export controls, licensing and geopolitical conditions as uncertainties for its business.
What ASML’s latest guidance says
In its July 15, 2026 Q2 results release, ASML forecast full-year 2026 net sales of €43 billion–€45 billion and a gross margin of 54%–56%. These are management’s forecasts, not completed-year results. The company also forecast Q3 net sales of €11.0 billion–€12.0 billion and a Q3 gross margin of 55%–57%. ASML Q2 2026 results
The full-year sales range has climbed in each of ASML’s 2026 updates. The comparison below uses the same measure—full-year net sales—across the three forecasts.
| Forecast issued | 2026 full-year net-sales outlook |
|---|---|
| January 28, 2026 | €34 billion–€39 billion |
| April 15, 2026 | €36 billion–€40 billion |
| July 15, 2026 | €43 billion–€45 billion |
The January outlook accompanied ASML’s 2025 results, which included €32.7 billion in full-year net sales, €9.6 billion in net income and a €38.8 billion year-end backlog. Those figures provide context, but backlog is not the same as revenue already recognized. ASML Q4 and full-year 2025 results
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What Q2 results show—and what they do not
ASML reported Q2 2026 net sales of €9.326 billion, a 54.0% gross margin and net income of €2.918 billion. The company said sales and gross margin exceeded its guidance, primarily because Installed Base Management sales were higher than expected. These are reported quarterly results, distinct from the Q3 and full-year forecasts.
The stronger quarter and raised annual outlook indicate that ASML saw better near-term business conditions than it had expected earlier in the year. They do not establish that every customer will take delivery on schedule, or that export restrictions have had no effect.
Why ASML expects demand to grow
ASML links its more positive outlook to continuing AI-related investment, demand for advanced logic and memory chips, stronger customer capacity plans and solid first-half order intake. These are the company’s explanations for its forecast, not an independent measurement of the entire semiconductor market.
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Random freezes, missing sound and display glitches usually trace back to one bad driver. Find and replace yours safely.Free scan · under a minuteASML President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the July 15 release: “Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry’s growth outlook.”
The logic is straightforward: AI-related computing needs more advanced chips, while memory and leading-edge logic producers plan capacity to meet expected demand. ASML sells the equipment used in chip production, so customers’ investment plans can support demand for its systems. But plans and orders still have to convert into shipments, installation and recognized sales.
Capacity plans point to opportunity and execution pressure
ASML said it planned to increase 2027 capacity for two categories of equipment by 30% relative to their respective 2026 levels. It was also investigating a further 30% increase for each category in 2028.
| Equipment category | 2026 reference level | 2027 plan | 2028 possibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low-NA EUV | Around 65 | 30% increase over the 2026 level | Another 30% increase under investigation |
| DUV immersion | Around 130 | 30% increase over the 2026 level | Another 30% increase under investigation |
ASML described these as capacity plans and an investigation, not as delivered tools or completed production. Expanding capacity can help the company respond if demand materializes, but it also raises execution demands: production, supplier availability and delivery timing must align with customer needs. The release does not establish that the contemplated 2028 increases will proceed.
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Why the chip trade remains fragile
ASML continues to identify shipment restrictions, changes in export controls, licensing, trade conditions and geopolitical developments among uncertainties that could affect its business. Its Q1 release said the 2026 guidance range accommodated possible outcomes of ongoing export-control discussions. In Q2, the company raised its outlook while retaining trade-related risks in its risk picture. ASML Q1 2026 results
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That combination matters: a stronger forecast is not evidence that restrictions no longer matter. Export rules and licensing can affect which systems may be shipped, where they may go and when approvals are available. The published risk language does not establish the current country-by-country rules, the outcome of any individual license application or the sales impact of a particular restriction. Those specific effects should not be inferred from the general guidance.
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- Guidance versus reported results: Q3 sales and margin figures will show how the quarter compares with ASML’s forecast of €11.0 billion–€12.0 billion in sales and 55%–57% gross margin.
- Order conversion and timing: Strong order intake and customer plans are positive signals, but shipments and recognized revenue depend on execution and timing.
- Capacity delivery: Follow whether the planned 2027 increases are realized; the additional 2028 increases remain under investigation.
- Trade and licensing developments: ASML’s general risk disclosures do not quantify the effect of any specific rule or license outcome.
At the evidence cutoff of October 13, 2026, ASML had scheduled its Q3 2026 results for October 14, shortly after 07:00 CET. That release was still upcoming, so no Q3 result or revised outlook can be treated as known here. ASML’s quarterly results calendar lists the reporting schedule.
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