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Greenland is contributing more to sea-level rise right now, but Antarctica is the greater long-term threat. NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites measured average losses of about 264 gigatons (Gt) of Greenland ice per year from 2002 through 2025, equivalent to roughly 0.8 millimeters (mm) of global mean sea-level rise annually. Antarctica averaged about 135 Gt per year, or 0.4 mm per year, over the same period. The ranking changes when the time horizon changes: Antarctica holds much more land ice and has a higher likely contribution range for 2100.
The short answer depends on the time horizon
There are three different questions hidden in “Which ice sheet is the bigger sea-level threat?” They produce different answers:
- Which is losing ice faster in recent observations? Greenland, based on NASA’s 2002–2025 satellite average.
- Which is adding more to sea level today? Greenland, at approximately twice Antarctica’s measured rate in that record.
- Which could raise sea level more over the coming centuries, and which has the larger 2100 risk range? Antarctica, because its ice reservoir is far larger and its marine-based sectors can respond to ocean warming in ways that produce rapid, uncertain ice loss.
These statements are not contradictory. “Current rate,” “total potential,” and “2100 projection” describe different quantities and must not be treated as interchangeable.
Five-way comparison
| Comparison axis | Greenland | Antarctica | What the comparison means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recent annual mass loss | About 264 Gt/year, averaged over 2002–2025 from NASA’s GRACE/GRACE-FO record | About 135 Gt/year, averaged over 2002–2025 from NASA’s GRACE/GRACE-FO record | Greenland’s recent average loss is roughly twice Antarctica’s; annual values vary. |
| Recent annual sea-level contribution | About 0.8 mm/year in the same NASA record | About 0.4 mm/year in the same NASA record | Greenland is the larger present-day contributor in this defined period. |
| Total land-ice potential | About 7.4 meters of global sea-level equivalent, according to NOAA Arctic Report Card material | Substantially more than Greenland because the Antarctic ice sheet is vastly larger | Neither figure is a forecast that the entire sheet will disappear soon. |
| Likely contribution by 2100 | 0.01–0.18 m across the IPCC’s assessed SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 scenarios | 0.03–0.34 m across the same scenario range | Antarctica has the higher likely range and the larger upper end. |
| Main physical controls and uncertainty | Surface melting, snowfall changes and outlet-glacier discharge are especially important. | Ocean-driven melting beneath ice shelves, shelf weakening and unstable marine-based glacier flow dominate uncertainty. | Antarctica’s feedbacks make its high-end outcomes harder to constrain. |
The NASA rates are period averages, not permanent rankings. A warm year, an unusually snowy year or a change in glacier discharge can alter the annual balance. The useful conclusion is therefore “Greenland led during 2002–2025,” not “Greenland will always lose ice faster.”
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What NASA’s recent measurements actually show
Greenland: approximately 264 Gt per year
NASA’s 2025 summary of the GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite record gives Greenland an average mass loss of about 264 Gt per year from 2002 through 2025. NASA translates that loss into approximately 0.8 mm of global mean sea-level rise per year. The estimate represents the net change in the ice sheet: snowfall adds mass, while surface runoff, melting, iceberg calving and other losses remove it.
Antarctica: approximately 135 Gt per year
For Antarctica, NASA reports an average loss of about 135 Gt per year over the same 2002–2025 period, equivalent to roughly 0.4 mm per year of global mean sea-level rise. Antarctica therefore contributed about half as much annual sea-level rise as Greenland in that particular satellite record.
Why another official estimate may look different
Different measurement methods and cut-off dates produce different annual values without necessarily disagreeing. NOAA reported a Greenland mass balance of 129 ± 50 Gt for 2025 and an average loss of 219 ± 16 Gt per year for 2003–2024. Those figures use a different reporting window and uncertainty treatment from NASA’s 2002–2025 GRACE/GRACE-FO average.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallA mass-balance number also has a sign convention. “129 Gt mass balance” may be presented as a negative loss in one source and as a positive amount of ice lost in another. Check the source’s definition before comparing values. The consistent point across these official assessments is that Greenland has experienced substantial net loss and has been the larger contributor in the cited recent record.
Why Greenland is losing more ice right now
Surface melt and runoff
Greenland lies beneath a warming Arctic atmosphere. Higher summer temperatures increase the area and duration of surface melt. Meltwater can run directly to the ocean or enter crevasses and moulins, where it may influence how quickly ice moves toward the coast. Less snowfall also reduces the replacement of ice lost at the surface.
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Outlet-glacier discharge
Large outlet glaciers transport inland ice to the coast, where it can calve as icebergs. The combination of surface mass-balance loss and discharge has made Greenland’s recent net loss especially pronounced. The balance can shift from year to year: heavy snowfall can temporarily reduce net loss, while widespread summer melt and fast-flowing outlet glaciers can increase it.
Feedbacks that amplify warming
As snow melts, darker ice or wet snow absorbs more sunlight. This albedo change can increase local heating and extend the melt season. Such feedbacks help explain why atmospheric warming is a major driver of Greenland’s present behavior, although ocean conditions also affect marine-terminating glaciers.
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Why Antarctica can become the larger long-term problem
A much larger ice reservoir
Greenland’s approximately 7.4 meters of global sea-level equivalent is already enough to transform coastlines if released over long periods. Antarctica contains far more land ice, so its eventual sea-level potential is substantially greater. That comparison describes the amount of ice available, not a prediction that either ice sheet will completely melt this century.
Ice shelves hold back inland ice
Much of Antarctica’s ice flows toward the ocean through floating ice shelves. These shelves do not raise sea level directly when they melt because they already displace seawater. They matter because they act as buttresses: friction and contact with the seabed or sidewalls help slow the grounded ice behind them. When warm ocean water thins an ice shelf from below, its restraining effect can weaken and inland glaciers can accelerate, delivering more grounded ice to the ocean.
Marine-based instability
Parts of West Antarctica rest on bedrock below sea level. In a configuration known as a reverse-sloping bed, retreat into deeper water can expose a thicker ice front to ocean forcing. That geometry can allow retreat to feed on itself. The timing and extent of such responses are difficult to calculate, which is why Antarctic projections span a wider range than Greenland projections.
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Ocean heat is the critical uncertainty
Atmospheric temperatures affect Antarctica, but the most consequential changes for many vulnerable sectors occur where relatively warm seawater reaches the underside of ice shelves. Ocean circulation, grounding-line movement, fractures and calving can interact. A modest change in one process can alter the speed at which grounded ice is lost, making Antarctica’s high-end outcomes particularly uncertain.
How much could each ice sheet add by 2100?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2021 assessment gives likely 2100 contributions across its assessed emissions scenarios, from SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5:
| Ice sheet | Likely 2100 sea-level contribution | Range interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Greenland | 0.01–0.18 m | The low end corresponds to lower-emissions conditions; the high end to the higher-emissions scenario in the assessed range. |
| Antarctica | 0.03–0.34 m | Both the central likely range and upper end exceed Greenland’s, reflecting greater potential sensitivity and uncertainty. |
“Likely” is a probability category, not a guarantee. The ranges are scenario-dependent: emissions, atmospheric warming, ocean warming and ice-sheet feedbacks all matter. They are also contributions from the ice sheets, not the entire projected rise from thermal expansion, mountain glaciers, groundwater changes and other sources.
The upper Antarctic value should not be read as a forecast of inevitable collapse. It signals that the assessed probability distribution allows substantially larger Antarctic contributions than Greenland’s by 2100. Scientific assessments may separately discuss low-probability, high-impact ice-sheet processes; those possibilities should not be silently folded into the likely range.
Sea ice is not the same as land-ice loss
Seasonal sea ice floating in the Arctic Ocean or around Antarctica is not the main source of current ice-sheet sea-level rise. When floating ice melts, it has already displaced approximately its own volume of seawater, so the direct effect on sea level is small. Sea ice still matters for climate because it reflects sunlight and influences ocean and atmospheric circulation.
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The ice relevant to the 0.8 and 0.4 mm-per-year figures is land ice: ice resting on bedrock in Greenland and Antarctica. Meltwater flowing from land or icebergs calved from grounded ice adds water to the ocean. Floating ice shelves can raise sea level indirectly if their loss speeds the discharge of grounded ice behind them.
Regional effects go beyond the global average
Global mean sea level is a useful accounting measure, but local changes differ because of gravity, ocean circulation, winds, currents and vertical land motion. NOAA’s Arctic Report Card states that Greenland’s ice loss “contributes to global sea-level rise, alters regional ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, and changes nutrient levels in local marine food webs.”
The gravitational pull of a large ice sheet also affects nearby sea level. As an ice sheet loses mass, that pull weakens, so sea level close to the ice source can rise less than the global average, while more distant regions can experience greater-than-average change. Communities planning defenses therefore need regional projections rather than simply multiplying a global number by a local coastline length.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret “greater threat” in practical terms
For changes already being measured
Use Greenland as the answer. In NASA’s 2002–2025 GRACE/GRACE-FO average, Greenland lost about 264 Gt per year and added roughly 0.8 mm per year to global mean sea level, compared with Antarctica’s 135 Gt and 0.4 mm.
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Use Antarctica. Its ice sheet is vastly larger, so its eventual sea-level equivalent is substantially greater than Greenland’s 7.4 m. “Eventually” may mean many centuries or longer; it is not a timetable for complete melting.
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For planning through 2100
Give Antarctica greater weight in high-end risk assessments. The IPCC’s likely range reaches 0.34 m for Antarctica versus 0.18 m for Greenland across the assessed scenarios. Greenland remains important because its contribution is already large and its surface melt responds directly to continued Arctic warming.
For explaining uncertainty
Emphasize Antarctica’s ice-shelf and marine-based processes. A projection with a wider range is not less scientific; it reflects physical processes that are harder to observe and model, especially beneath ice shelves and near grounding lines.
Common mistakes when comparing the ice sheets
- Calling the current rate a permanent ranking. The NASA values are averages over 2002–2025, and annual balances change.
- Comparing floating sea ice with ice-sheet mass loss. Sea-ice melt is not equivalent to losing grounded land ice.
- Treating total potential as a near-term forecast. Greenland’s 7.4 m of sea-level equivalent and Antarctica’s larger reservoir describe inventory, not expected 21st-century loss.
- Turning an IPCC range into a certainty. The 0.01–0.18 m and 0.03–0.34 m figures are likely scenario ranges, not guaranteed outcomes.
- Ignoring the measurement period. A rate without its years, method and uncertainty cannot be compared fairly with another rate.
- Adding ice-sheet numbers to total sea-level projections. Ice sheets are only one component; ocean warming, mountain glaciers, groundwater and land movement also affect sea level.
What to watch in future assessments
Three indicators will clarify whether the present contrast is widening or narrowing: Greenland’s sustained surface-mass balance and outlet-glacier discharge; the temperature and pathways of ocean water reaching Antarctic ice shelves; and changes in grounding lines, shelf thickness and glacier speed. Satellite gravimetry provides large-scale mass change, while radar, laser altimetry, field observations and ocean measurements help identify the processes behind it.
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Bottom line for readers
Greenland matters more to the sea-level rise being observed today: NASA’s 2002–2025 average puts its annual loss and contribution at about twice Antarctica’s. Antarctica matters more to the long-term ceiling and to high-end 2100 risk because it contains far more ice and includes vulnerable marine-based sectors whose response to ocean warming is uncertain. The most accurate answer is therefore time-qualified: Greenland is melting faster in the recent record; Antarctica poses the greater long-term sea-level threat.
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