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California’s Democratic Party has endorsed Proposition 40, a proposed one-time tax on billionaires, while Gov. Gavin Newsom and other prominent Democrats oppose it. The measure would tax 5% of the net worth of people who were California residents on January 1, 2026, with most of the revenue earmarked for health care. Its backers and critics disagree over whether that money is worth the risk of changing taxpayer behavior and reducing other state revenue.
What Proposition 40 would do
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time state tax equal to 5% of the net worth of billionaires who were California residents on January 1, 2026. Payment would be due in 2027. Taxpayers could spread payments over five years, but that option would cost more than paying at once.
The proposal generally excludes real estate, pensions and retirement accounts from the taxable wealth calculation. It is not an annual tax: the proposal calls for a single assessment based on the specified residency date, rather than a recurring charge on wealth in future years.
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The initiative is on California’s November 3, 2026 general-election ballot as Proposition 40. A yes vote would allow the state to collect the tax; a no vote would reject it.
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Where the money would go
Ninety percent of the proceeds would be directed to public health-care services. The remainder would go to education, food assistance and administration of the tax. The state would determine how and when to spend the money within those designated categories.
| Share of proceeds | Designated use |
|---|---|
| 90% | Public health-care services |
| Remaining share | Education, food assistance and tax administration |
The initiative names health care, K–14 public education and food assistance as purposes for the measure. Its supporters argue that taxing accumulated wealth can help meet those public-service needs. The initiative’s text also argues that a substantial portion of billionaire wealth is not taxed as income until assets are sold; that is the measure’s rationale, not a finding established by the state’s fiscal analysis.
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How much could it raise—and what could it cost?
California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) estimates that Proposition 40 could generate tens of billions of dollars in temporary revenue spread across several years. It does not offer a reliable point estimate for final collections. The amount and timing are difficult to predict because taxpayers may change their behavior and much of the taxable wealth is tied to stock prices, which fluctuate.
The LAO also estimates that behavioral responses, including billionaires leaving California, could reduce state income-tax revenue by less than $1 billion per year. It projects administration costs of tens of millions of dollars per year for several years. These are official estimates of possible effects, not observed results: the tax has not been implemented.
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That distinction is central to the debate. The projected tax would be a one-time source of revenue, while a possible reduction in income-tax receipts could affect future budgets. The scale of either effect is uncertain, so the estimates do not establish how many taxpayers would leave or what the final net fiscal result would be.
Why California Democrats disagree
Supporters’ case
Supporters present the tax as a way to direct accumulated wealth toward health care and other public services. The California Democratic Party has endorsed Proposition 40. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and the Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West also support it. At a California rally, Sanders put the choice this way: “Brothers and sisters, that is the question on the ballot.”
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Opponents’ case
Opponents argue that a one-time tax could destabilize a state budget that depends heavily on high earners, particularly if wealthy residents move or otherwise change their tax behavior. The LAO acknowledges that such responses could reduce future income-tax revenue, while emphasizing that the size and timing of the effect are uncertain and estimating the annual reduction at less than $1 billion.
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Newsom and several other prominent Democratic allies oppose the proposal. The official voter guide also lists the California Primary Care Association, California School Boards Association and California Taxpayers Association among the opponents. The split is not a simple party-line divide: the state party supports the measure, but Democratic officeholders and organizations do not all agree.
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What voters and campaigns were saying in 2026
A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey released March 19, 2026, found 52% of registered voters said they would vote yes, 33% said no and 15% were undecided after respondents received a summary of the proposal. Among Democrats in that survey, 72% said yes. These are results from an early poll with a particular summary and date, not a forecast or a measure of opinion in October.
Campaign spending also showed a large imbalance at one point in the race. The Associated Press reported on October 9, 2026, citing AdImpact, that opponents had spent or booked roughly $96 million for airtime and digital messaging, compared with $209,000 by supporters. Those figures describe spending or bookings reported at that time and can change as the campaign continues; they do not establish how voters will decide.
How Propositions 41 and 42 could affect the result
The official analysis identifies a complication beyond the yes-or-no vote on Proposition 40: Proposition 41 or Proposition 42 could prevent Proposition 40 from becoming law if either receives more yes votes, even if Proposition 40 itself wins a majority. That means a majority for Proposition 40 would not, by itself, settle whether the tax takes effect. The interaction is a feature of the ballot rules described in the official analysis; it is not a prediction about how courts may resolve any dispute.
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