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A bot for Polymarket’s five-minute BTC Up or Down markets needs to do three separate jobs: discover the current market and its outcome tokens, read the live order books, and verify the market’s settlement terms. An exchange-price or order-flow signal may help estimate an outcome, but it is not automatically the price series that decides settlement.
Polymarket’s market-data documentation describes the data-feed mechanics, and a moderator announcement says affected five-minute crypto markets moved to a 30-second TWAP effective August 7, 2026. Neither establishes that a flow-alignment strategy is profitable or specifies every market’s current settlement procedure.
Separate the signal, the order book, and the settlement reference
These inputs answer different questions. Keep them as separate data streams in the bot and in your records.
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|---|---|---|
| Polymarket outcome-token book | The bids and asks available for each outcome token, including book snapshots and price-change events. | That the subscribed token IDs belong to the active market and that the feed is current. |
| External BTC price or flow feed | A possible predictive input, such as spot-price movement or signed trade flow. | Timestamp quality, missing data, latency, and how it differs from the market’s settlement reference. |
| Market’s settlement source and method | The terms that determine whether the market resolves Up or Down. | The active market’s exact description and applicable observation method; do not infer them from another window. |
A third-party inspection of one sampled market record quotes terms naming Chainlink’s BTC/USD Data Stream and defining Up as a price at the end of the title’s time range that is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning. That inspection says the exact snapshot semantics were not documented. Treat it as an example, not a guarantee of the terms for every open market.
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A Polymarket moderator announcement says affected markets would stop resolving on one snapshot and use a time-weighted average price, with the averaging window scaled to market length. It specifies “All crypto 5 min markets: 30 second TWAP,” effective August 7, 2026. The announcement does not fully define timestamps, sample selection, weighting implementation, or exceptions. Check the current market description and available oracle data for each window, and retain the terms you used.
Polymarket US rules filed with the CFTC describe possible settlement methods including candlestick measurements, VWAP, TWAP, a simple average, or spot price. They explain why a contract’s specified data source and settlement method matter, but they are US rules and do not establish the exact terms of every global market.
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Build the bot around rotating markets and token IDs
Each five-minute window can have different outcome-token identifiers. Do not hard-code tokens from a prior market or assume the order of outcomes. Discover the active market, read its metadata and resolution terms, and validate the token-to-outcome mapping before subscribing or placing orders. Polymarket’s official market-data documentation is the starting point for discovery and identifiers.
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- Discover the market. Read current and upcoming market records. Store the market’s terms, outcome-token IDs, start and end timestamps, and stated resolution source.
- Subscribe to both outcome books. Polymarket documents the market WebSocket at
wss://ws-subscriptions-clob.polymarket.com/ws/market. Subscribe using the current outcome-token IDs, then validate that events map to the expected market and outcomes. - Keep the connection healthy. The official real-time market-data documentation specifies sending
PINGevery 10 seconds and expectingPONG. Detect missed heartbeats, stale timestamps, sequence gaps, and disconnects. After a disconnect, pause new orders until you have rebuilt a fresh book state and confirmed the subscription. - Archive the feeds. Persist timestamped book snapshots and incremental price-change events. Record external signal data separately, including source timestamps, local receipt times, clock offsets, gaps, and stale-data flags.
- Estimate and compare. Produce a signal and estimated outcome probability, then compare that estimate with executable prices and available depth. A midpoint or last trade is not a promise that an order could have filled there.
- Manage orders and positions. Set explicit position, order, and loss limits. Reconcile submitted, acknowledged, partially filled, canceled, and settled orders rather than treating an API response as proof of execution.
- Audit resolution. At settlement, compare the result with the market’s stated source and method. Keep the relevant market terms and raw oracle and market records for later review.
The documented market-data stream provides book snapshots with bid and ask levels and price-change events with price, size, side, and best-bid and best-ask fields. It reports market data; by itself it does not prove an order filled or that a market resolved correctly.
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Define “flow alignment” before testing it
The phrase can refer to several different hypotheses. Test them separately rather than combining them into one loosely defined feature.
- Signed trade flow: whether aggressive buying or selling is aligned with the direction implied by a BTC signal.
- Displayed-depth imbalance: whether visible size on one side of an outcome-token book changes relative to the other side.
- Market-probability movement: whether changes in Polymarket prices align with an external BTC signal.
- Price-only signal: whether the external BTC price itself contains useful information about the market’s outcome.
For each hypothesis, specify the calculation, observation interval, decision timestamp, and rules for missing or stale data before looking at test results. A spot-exchange price can be an input, but if the market names a different settlement source, measure the basis and timing differences against archived settlement-source data. Do not assume that an apparent lead in one feed predicts the quantity that determines the result.
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Evaluate executable results, not attractive charts
Use chronological out-of-sample periods and analyze individual market windows. Prevent leakage by ensuring every input was available at the order-decision time. Record the decision time, source timestamps, data freshness, market state, token, intended order, executable price, realized fills, fees, exit or settlement, and final result.
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Mark buys against the ask and sells against the bid, and model how much displayed depth an order would consume. Include partial fills, fees applicable to the specific market, and slippage. Polymarket’s general FAQ explains that outcome-share prices reflect prices users are willing to trade at and that shares are priced between 0 and 1 USDC; a midpoint is not an executable fill.
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Compare the strategy with useful baselines: no trade, a price-only signal, and the market’s own implied probability. These comparisons help establish whether an order-flow feature adds value rather than merely tracking information already reflected in the market price.
Report enough to judge risk and robustness
- Net returns after fees and slippage, plus maximum drawdown and exposure.
- Number and size of trades, fill rate, partial fills, and adverse selection.
- Calibration by probability bucket, not just the share of winning trades.
- Performance by time remaining in the window and sensitivity to latency.
- Sample size, date range, and separate paper-trading and live-trading results.
No reviewed source provides a credible performance statistic for this specific strategy, and no bot test or trade measurement is established here. Keep simulated and live records distinct; a backtest or paper result is not evidence of realized live returns.
Quick Recap
Use no-trade controls for the main failure modes
- Wrong market or outcome: Rediscover the market at every rollover and verify the token-to-outcome mapping from current metadata before trading.
- Settlement mismatch: Store the applicable terms and settlement series for each window. Do not substitute a spot-exchange price for the named settlement reference.
- Unverified TWAP behavior: Check the active market’s terms and feed behavior; the moderator announcement gives a duration but not all calculation details.
- Stale or incomplete data: On missed heartbeats, stale timestamps, sequence gaps, or a disconnected socket, block new orders until the book has been rebuilt from a fresh snapshot.
- Unrealistic backtest fills: Model bid, ask, depth, partial fills, and applicable fees rather than assuming execution at the midpoint or last trade.
- Overfit signal: Fix the signal definition before testing, use chronological holdout periods, compare simple baselines, and report weak as well as strong periods.
- Operational loss: Configure position and daily-loss limits, an emergency stop, order-state reconciliation, and a no-trade mode whenever feed or market-term uncertainty remains.
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