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Goldman Sachs was reported to see about 26% in USD price upside for the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index (MXAPJ) over roughly 12 months, based on a September 4, 2026 reference level. The forecast’s central support is expected technology-led earnings growth in South Korea and Taiwan. It is a dated market call, not a promised return: by October 3, a later summary using a lower index level implied 27% upside to the same target.
What Goldman Sachs forecast—and what “26% return” means
On September 5, 2026, Investing.com reported that Goldman Sachs had raised its MXAPJ target from 1,080 to 1,120 and described the new target as implying a 26% price gain from the then-current index level. The measure is a forecast of price return in US dollars over approximately 12 months; it is not an estimate of a guaranteed gain for every investor and does not, by itself, include dividends.
A September 5 Finvaulta summary of Goldman Sachs’s Asia-Pacific Weekly Kickstart used a September 4 snapshot: MXAPJ at 891, against the 1,120 target, for 26% implied USD price upside. The same target produces a different percentage when the reference level changes. In its October 3 summary, Finvaulta reported MXAPJ at 880 and calculated 27% implied upside to 1,120. Neither percentage should be read as a live quote or as a return available from any particular date after those snapshots.
The index name matters: MXAPJ is the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index. The target and implied returns discussed here concern that index, not a broad portfolio that includes Japanese equities. Goldman Sachs’s separate reported view on Japan’s earnings outlook does not make Japan part of MXAPJ.
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Why technology earnings are central to the call
Investing.com attributed the target increase to higher earnings forecasts, led by South Korea and Taiwan, and reported strong technology-sector earnings growth as a key rationale. An August 30 Hilo Research interpretation of Goldman Sachs’s view connected those markets’ earnings contribution to demand for AI hardware and semiconductors. That makes the forecast sensitive to whether the technology investment and hardware cycle translates into company profits—not simply to enthusiasm for AI.
Annual earnings forecasts are not realized results
Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation reported Goldman Sachs forecasts for regional earnings-per-share growth of 72% in 2026 and 23% in 2027. It gave South Korea forecasts of 350% and 35%, respectively, and Taiwan forecasts of 62% and 30%. These are forecast growth rates, not realized earnings or stock returns. In particular, South Korea’s very large 2026 figure is a forecast of growth from a comparison base; it should not be interpreted as a 350% expected share-price gain.
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A separate quarterly figure
Finvaulta’s September 5 summary reported that second-quarter 2026 earnings growth for the region was 102% year over year across 1,029 companies that had reported. That is a retrospective quarterly comparison from the summary’s dated snapshot, not the same measure or period as the full-year 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts. It does not establish that the same pace will continue.
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Where the reported opportunity—and concentration—lies
Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation said Goldman Sachs favored South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and China A-shares, while preferring underweights in Australia and parts of ASEAN. It also described favored sectors as technology hardware and semiconductors, capital goods, banks excluding Australia and China, and healthcare. These are reported portfolio preferences, not a guarantee that each market or sector will rise.
The forecasts were unusually dependent on South Korea and Taiwan. In the same August 30 interpretation, the implied 12-month price return fell from 26% for MXAPJ to 8% when those two markets were excluded. That comparison is a reminder that the regional headline does not describe an evenly distributed opportunity across Asian markets.
| Measure | MXAPJ | Excluding South Korea and Taiwan | Source and date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Implied 12-month price return | 26% | 8% | Hilo Research interpretation of Goldman Sachs, August 30, 2026 |
| Implied 12-month total return | 28% | 11% | Hilo Research interpretation of Goldman Sachs, August 30, 2026 |
| Implied total return | 29% | not stated in the September 5 summary | Finvaulta summary of Goldman Sachs, September 5, 2026; snapshot dated September 4 |
Price return and total return are different measures: total return accounts for dividends as well as price movement. The reported total-return figures are not consistent across the two summaries, so they should not be combined or quoted without their source and date. The 26% price-return headline is the clearest figure to use when describing the September 5 report.
Valuation figures are also date-specific
Hilo Research’s August 30 interpretation put MXAPJ at 11.1 times forward earnings with a 19.9% return on equity, and reported South Korea at 5 times forward earnings versus higher valuations in Taiwan. These are dated estimates, not current market quotations. A low forward price-to-earnings multiple can indicate a lower valuation relative to forecast earnings, but it does not establish that earnings forecasts will be met or that a market is cheap for every investor or risk profile.
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- Higher bond yields: Investing.com cited rising yields as a near-term volatility risk. Finvaulta’s October 3 summary reported a US 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24% in that snapshot, alongside emerging-Asia outflows. That is a dated figure, not a current yield.
- Geopolitical and political uncertainty: The September 5 Investing.com report identified Middle East tensions and uncertainty around upcoming US midterm elections as potential sources of volatility.
- Technology-cycle dependence: Because the earnings case is particularly reliant on South Korea and Taiwan, weaker semiconductor or AI-hardware demand could undermine a key part of the forecast, even if other Asian markets perform differently.
- Flows and uneven performance: Finvaulta’s October 3 summary reported about US$10 billion in weekly foreign outflows across emerging Asia ex-China, led by South Korea and India. It also reported that MXAPJ was down 5% from its June 22 peak but up 22% year to date, while the index excluding South Korea and Taiwan was down 7% year to date. Each figure describes that summary’s dated snapshot, not performance after October 3.
That October summary still cited earnings revisions and fourth-quarter seasonality as support for a positive 12-month outlook, while treating yields and outflows as qualifications to the near-term picture. An index target can coexist with short-term declines; the target is a forecast, not a path of smooth gains.
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How to read the forecast as an investor
The call is most useful as a description of Goldman Sachs’s reported regional positioning and assumptions, rather than as a stand-alone investment instruction. Before comparing it with another outlook, check the return measure, forecast date and reference index level; whether the figure covers MXAPJ or excludes South Korea and Taiwan; and how much the forecast depends on earnings growth in technology-heavy markets. Also distinguish an index-level forecast from the result an investor might receive after fees, taxes, currency exposure, dividends and the performance of a chosen investment product.
The detailed allocation, earnings and valuation figures above come from secondary summaries and interpretations of Goldman Sachs’s view; the primary strategy report was not available in the cited material. Investing.com described its September 5 article as AI-assisted and editor-reviewed. The available reporting supports describing the call and its stated rationale, but not presenting the detailed figures as independently verified statements from Goldman Sachs or as a current recommendation.
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