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Copper is not about to disappear, but the mine pipeline shown in International Energy Agency (IEA) scenarios is not large enough to meet projected primary requirements later this decade. The IEA’s cited pipeline assessment points to a potential 30% supply deficit by 2035, even though the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts refined surpluses in 2026 and 2027.
These four charts separate the long-term project problem from the near-term market balance. Read together, they show why mine production, refined usage, recycling, reported inventories, prices and new project approvals all need to be monitored.
The four charts at a glance
| Chart | Horizon | What it measures | Investor question |
|---|---|---|---|
| IEA mined supply versus demand | 2026–2035 | Expected mine output beside demand under an IEA scenario | Does the structural supply path keep up with demand? |
| IEA existing and announced projects | To 2035 | Project-based supply versus primary requirements | Are mines already operating or announced sufficient? |
| ICSG mine growth and refined balance | 2026–2027 | Annual mine-production growth and refined surplus or deficit | What does the next one or two years look like? |
| ICSG stocks and prices | Choose a consistent time series | Reported inventories and observed market prices | Is the physical market tightening now? |
The charts do not provide a single copper price target. They describe physical supply, demand and market signals, each with different definitions and time horizons.
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What to plot
Use the IEA chart covering mined supply and demand through 2035, cited as IEA (2026). Put the supply and demand series on the same axis and preserve the scenario label used by the IEA. This is a scenario outlook, not a guaranteed production path or price forecast.
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The structural signal
In the IEA’s 2025 base-case description, mined supply peaks at a little over 24 million tonnes (Mt) in the late 2020s, then falls below 19 Mt by 2035. The stated reasons are declining ore grades, retiring assets and reserve depletion. The important visual is the direction after the peak: demand continues to be assessed against a mine-output path that weakens rather than expands.
How to read it correctly
- Check whether the supply series means mined copper and whether demand is defined on the same basis.
- Read the scenario name and assumptions printed on the chart; changing assumptions can change the gap.
- Do not convert the distance between the lines into a certain price increase. The chart does not forecast prices.
2. Existing and announced projects versus 2035 primary requirements
Why this is a different comparison
The IEA project-pipeline chart compares expected output from existing and announced mines with primary supply requirements. “Primary requirements” means total demand net of secondary supply, with refining losses also taken into account. That definition matters: comparing mine output directly with total refined demand would overstate or misstate the amount of new mining needed.
The pipeline case
The IEA’s 2025 news release says that “the current copper mine project pipeline points to a 30% supply deficit by 2035.” Treat that as the result of the cited pipeline scenario and its assumptions, not as a certainty that every market will be short by exactly 30%.
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What belongs on the graphic
- Label existing mines and announced projects separately if the IEA chart does so.
- State that the requirement line is primary, net of secondary supply, and adjusted for refining losses.
- Print the scenario, geography and date of the IEA assessment beside the chart.
- Show that the chart is about projects currently operating or announced; mines that have not yet been identified or approved are not automatically included.
Mine supply is slow to respond because permitting, financing, construction and ramp-up take years. A gap in this chart therefore describes the adequacy of the visible project pipeline, not an unchangeable physical limit.
3. Near-term mine growth and refined balance
ICSG’s 2026–2027 forecast
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| World copper mine-production growth | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| Refined copper balance | About 96,000-tonne surplus | About 377,000-tonne surplus |
These figures come from the ICSG April 2026 forecast. They provide a short-term counterweight to the IEA’s longer-term pipeline warning: the refined market is forecast to have a surplus in both years even as the longer project outlook appears inadequate for 2035.
Why a surplus does not settle the long-term question
Refined balances can change quickly when mines are disrupted, smelters alter operations, demand estimates are revised, secondary production changes or inventories move between locations. A surplus in 2026 or 2027 therefore does not prove that enough mines will be available in 2035, and a later deficit would not mean the earlier forecast was erroneous.
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Forecast caveats
The ICSG notes that actual balances can deviate because of unforeseen developments. Its treatment of China’s apparent demand also excludes several categories of unreported stocks. Keep those qualifications in the chart caption rather than presenting the forecast as a precise physical count.
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4. Stocks and prices: the market’s tightness check
Build a consistent time series
Use the ICSG selected copper statistics for reported stocks and prices, and annotate major production or demand events. ICSG’s recurring statistics cover production, usage, stocks, prices and trade.
Every series should identify:
- the exchange or warehouse represented;
- the unit for stocks, such as tonnes;
- the currency and price unit;
- the contract or benchmark used;
- the observation date and frequency.
What a stock draw can—and cannot—tell you
A fall in reported stocks can be consistent with tighter nearby availability, but it does not by itself prove a structural deficit. Reported inventories change with trade flows, stocking and destocking, and they may not capture all commercial stocks. Compare the inventory line with refined usage, mine disruptions and price behavior rather than reading one stock movement in isolation.
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Use prices as observations, not targets
Prices are a market signal that incorporates expectations, financial positioning and regional conditions as well as physical supply. The official material used here does not establish a single authoritative copper price target, so the chart should show the exact observed series and dates instead of a predicted endpoint.
How to compare copper outlooks without mixing definitions
| Comparison axis | Questions to ask |
|---|---|
| Time horizon | Is the estimate for 2026–2027 or for 2035? |
| Supply definition | Does it measure mined copper, refined copper, or primary requirements net of secondary supply? |
| Scenario | Which IEA scenario or other assumptions are being used? |
| Geography | Is the series global, regional or tied to a particular market? |
| Recycling treatment | Is secondary supply included, excluded or netted from requirements? |
| Inventory coverage | Are stocks exchange-reported or broader estimated commercial inventories? |
Two charts can appear to disagree while measuring different things. For example, an IEA mine-output gap and an ICSG refined surplus may both be valid because one addresses a long-term project pipeline and the other includes refining, recycling, inventories and short-term demand assumptions.
The monitoring set for investors
A practical dashboard should track the following series together:
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- Mine production: monthly or quarterly output, disruptions and project ramp-ups.
- Refined usage: consumption estimates and revisions, with attention to the assumptions behind apparent demand.
- Secondary supply: recycled copper that reduces the amount of primary material required.
- Reported stocks: exchange and warehouse inventories with the location and date clearly identified.
- Prices: a consistently defined contract or benchmark, shown with its currency and observation period.
- Project additions: mines moving from announced to financed, permitted, built and producing status.
The strongest warning signal would be several measures moving together: weakening mine growth, rising primary requirements, falling reported stocks and project delays. A single price spike or stock draw is weaker evidence because it can reflect positioning, trade timing or temporary disruptions.
What the four charts mean together
The near-term and long-term views are not contradictory. ICSG’s April 2026 forecast allows for refined surpluses of about 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027, while the IEA’s project-pipeline assessment identifies a potential 30% shortfall by 2035. The difference is the time horizon, the supply definition and the role of secondary material and refining.
For a durable outlook, start with the IEA’s mine-and-demand scenario, test the visible project pipeline against primary requirements, use the ICSG forecast to understand the next two years, and then check stocks and prices for evidence of current tightness. Keep every chart’s scenario, unit, geography and date visible so a short-term surplus is not mistaken for long-term adequacy.
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