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Official development finance (ODF) to Southeast Asia fell to US$26.1 billion in 2024, down 9.8% from 2023, according to the Lowy Institute’s 2026 Southeast Asia Aid Map report. The decline was driven mainly by traditional bilateral partners, while multilateral development banks stepped up. China did not make up the shortfall. The 2024 figures are the latest year of comprehensive data; figures for 2025 are estimates or projections, not final observed totals.
What the 2026 report measures
The Lowy Institute’s report examines official development finance flowing to Southeast Asia and how its sources and uses are changing. ODF is broader than official development assistance (ODA): the report discusses multiple financing modalities, so its regional totals should not be read as ODA alone. The accessible report material does not set out a complete operational definition, specify how it treats commitments versus disbursements, or provide uncertainty intervals.
The Institute’s interactive Southeast Asia Aid Map describes a dataset covering US$290 billion across 130,000 projects from 2015–2023. Those figures describe the interactive map’s dataset, not the full period of the 2026 report’s findings. The map supports comparisons by donor, recipient, sector, and time period, with country profiles and project-level detail. Its data combines publicly available material and open-source research, as well as information from partners that do not publish publicly.
How much development finance did Southeast Asia receive?
The Lowy Institute reports that regional ODF fell from US$28.9 billion in 2023 to US$26.1 billion in 2024—a 9.8% decrease. It describes 2024 as the lowest level since 2015. This is a decline in the total, not evidence that every recipient or sector received less.
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Why did finance fall?
Bilateral partners accounted for most of the decline
Traditional bilateral partners provided US$8.7 billion in ODF in 2024, US$1.1 billion (11.6%) less than in 2023. Japan’s reduction drove the overall decline, even as France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom increased their contributions. This pattern shows why a regional total can fall even when some individual donors expand their financing.
Multilateral development banks stepped up
The report says multilateral development banks (MDBs), including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), increased their role as bilateral donors pulled back. That shift matters because the overall fall was not shared evenly across types of financiers. The report-linked material does not provide a complete comparable set of 2024 totals for all MDBs, so the direction of the shift is clearer than its full institution-by-institution scale.
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Is China filling the gap?
No. Chinese ODF to Southeast Asia was US$3.67 billion in 2024, down 22.7% from US$4.74 billion in 2023. China’s share of bilateral regional ODF averaged about 20% over 2015–2024, but was around 14.5% from 2022. These figures indicate that China remained a major source, but its finance did not replace the retreating bilateral contributions.
Who finances infrastructure?
Infrastructure finance is concentrated among a small group: six financiers accounted for 90% of regional infrastructure spending in 2024. The Lowy Institute’s reported shares for the largest named sources were:
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| Financier | Share of Southeast Asia infrastructure spending | Period |
|---|---|---|
| China | About 31% | 2024 |
| Japan | 21% | 2024 |
| Asian Development Bank | 17% | 2024 |
| World Bank | 10% | 2024 |
| China | 39% | 2015–2024 |
The 2015–2024 China figure is a period-wide share and should not be compared as though it were a 2024 annual share. The named 2024 shares also do not account for the remaining financiers; together, the six largest sources made up 90%.
What does ODF support, and what is at risk?
The report-linked analysis says ODF continues to support infrastructure, health, education, social assistance, and domestic policy reform. It highlights lower-income Southeast Asian countries and emerging economies such as Indonesia and the Philippines. The Lowy Institute also assesses that social protection receives a larger share of regional ODF than the global average, but that focus has stagnated outside crisis periods. The accessible material does not state a numerical share for social protection.
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A prolonged pullback could put pressure on these areas, but the available findings do not establish a uniform impact across countries or sectors. Recipient, sector, and financing-source filters in the map can help readers examine those differences rather than treating the regional aggregate as a country-level result.
What the report says about 2025
The Lowy Institute’s initial estimate is that ODF fell by at least another US$800 million in 2025. A separate report-linked projection estimates a further US$1.76 billion reduction in ODF from traditional bilateral partners that year. Both figures are forward-looking estimates or projections; they are not comprehensive, confirmed 2025 totals. The available material does not establish the final 2025 outcome.
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